Welcome back from our week off for Father’s Day weekend, I hope you all enjoyed it. Now to this week’s venue, Sonoma Raceway. The venue is different than any other that gets used in the schedule as it’s a road course, and I know there is another road course on the schedule in Watkins Glenn, but that course is a much different kind of course than Sonoma is. The Napa Valley track, that sits on Sears Point, is a highly technical layout that uses 10 turns to keep speeds down and make it reasonably tough to pass in the race. Whereas Watkins Glenn is a more high-speed layout with fewer turns and far less elevation change.

Sonoma Raceway has multiple layouts, and a drag strip in the middle of it, but NASCAR uses a 1.99-mile layout for their races instead of the full 2.52-mile layout. The final turn of the NASCAR layout is a hairpin 180 degree turn that has allowed for late passes in the last few races as one driver doesn’t hit their braking mark and swings wide. With a 1.99-mile track and 110 laps in the race, there are 218.9 miles total in the race, so where does the 350 number in the race name come from? It’s for the amount of kilometers in the race. 350 Km multiplied by .621 (the amount of miles in a Km) gets you 217 miles, hence the number in the race.

With the short number of laps, and the reasonably tough passing conditions, the bonus points of laps led and position differential should be kept to a low level this week. Last year only one driver broke 60 points in the DK scoring system and only four broke 50 in the FD system.

The low-scoring being stated, only three of the last 10 winners have started in the top-five and six of the other seven have started in the double-digits, including one who started P30. However prior to this most recent 10-race sample, from June 2005 through June 1992 every winner came from the top-10 and five of the 14 won from the pole.

Track Breakdown

Last Four Races at Sonoma Raceway

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Kevin Harvick4159.57.81233450
Kyle Busch410.812.89.51233322
Clint Bowyer415.518.813.8023339
Joey Logano413.512.89022343
Denny Hamlin412.813.312.50222344
Kurt Busch47107.80134443
Jamie McMurray410.513.310.50123410
Paul Menard416.316.311.3011343
Brad Keselowski414.518.314.80112317
Martin Truex Jr4917.524.80112225
Kasey Kahne42415.511.8003330
Jimmie Johnson418.599.80024458
Ryan Newman41513.310.8002440
Chase Elliott2121714.5001110
Ryan Blaney216.516.516001110
Kyle Larson43.31320.3000229
AJ Allmendinger42.515.530.80001160
Michael McDowell421.825.327.8000110
Aric Almirola327.722.721.3000110
Austin Dillon426.52018.5000030
Chris Buescher222.523.524.5000014
Ricky Stenhouse Jr428.326.528.8000010
Daniel Suarez1112116000010
Cole Whitt431.326.526000000
David Ragan424.528.334.5000000
Trevor Bayne32827.325000000
Matt DiBenedetto33028.727.7000000
Alex Bowman239.53430000000
Erik Jones1302525000000
Ty Dillon1352828000000
Justin Marks1353530000000
Tomy Drissi1434038000000
Bubba Wallace0000000000
Chris Cook0000000000
Cody Ware0000000000
Gray Gaulding0000000000
Parker Kligerman0000000000
William Byron0000000000

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPosLaps LedHigh toLow to
DriverLapsRate0RatingRatingRatingDiffPts./RaceAvg RatingAvg Rating
Kevin Harvick3383%440110.81321007.203.1321.210.8
Kyle Busch567%44096.8118.260.41.301.3821.436.4
Clint Bowyer849%33579.8112.325.31.700.5632.554.5
Joey Logano463%44087.999.776.14.500.1911.811.8
Denny Hamlin1762%44090122.363.20.302.7532.326.8
Kurt Busch3284%440107.1137.791.1-0.802.6930.616
Jamie McMurray1361%44092.9126670.000.6333.125.9
Paul Menard450%4408293.669.75.000.1911.612.3
Brad Keselowski1148%44079.8110.958.2-0.301.0631.121.6
Martin Truex Jr3957%33792.6124.558.1-15.801.5631.934.5
Kasey Kahne1859%43985.997.85912.200.0011.926.9
Jimmie Johnson3286%440104.8123.587.78.703.6318.717.1
Ryan Newman369%44084.692.170.74.200.007.513.9
Chase Elliott534%22076.98667.7-2.500.009.19.2
Ryan Blaney241%2207586.863.20.500.0011.811.8
Kyle Larson1268%43982.998.361.7-17.000.5615.421.2
AJ Allmendinger2863%42094.1108.264.6-28.303.7514.129.5
Michael McDowell911%42056.774.246.9-6.000.0017.59.8
Aric Almirola114%33063.373556.400.009.78.3
Austin Dillon123%44068.179.760.88.000.0011.67.3
Chris Buescher225%22058.974.443.3-2.000.5015.515.6
Ricky Stenhouse Jr010%35951.258.937.7-0.500.007.713.5
Daniel Suarez125%11066.266.266.2-5.000.0000
Cole Whitt08%44051.159.540.55.300.008.410.6
David Ragan113%40646.674.234.5-10.000.0027.612.1
Trevor Bayne15%32949.952.847.73.000.002.92.2
Matt DiBenedetto04%32942.846392.300.003.23.8
Alex Bowman00%21940.144.735.59.500.004.64.6
Erik Jones07%10949.549.549.55.000.0000
Ty Dillon24%10941.641.641.67.000.0000
Justin Marks00%10935.235.235.25.000.0000
Tomy Drissi00%025.925.925.95.000.0000
Bubba Wallace00%00000.00 00
Chris Cook00%00000.00 00
Cody Ware00%00000.00 00
Gray Gaulding00%00000.00 00
Parker Kligerman00%00000.00 00
William Byron00%00000.00 00

 

Top-15 Drivers at Last 10 Races at Sonoma

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Kyle Busch1013.716.416.323456110
Clint Bowyer1014.914.510.81688882
Kurt Busch108.71111.814688137
Jimmie Johnson1012.38.981371010140
Kevin Harvick1017.612.712.81366855
Kasey Kahne1013.913.912.51267841
Martin Truex Jr101115.521.31234592
Denny Hamlin1013.717.421.10333489
Joey Logano912.114.812.80246818
Jamie McMurray1013.616.614.80126912
Brad Keselowski817.517.417.10124524
Paul Menard1018.420.617.3011473
Ryan Newman1013.415.514.1003690
AJ Allmendinger911.719.322.40025560
Chase Elliott2121714.5001110

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPos.Laps LedRating
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts/RaceRange
Kyle Busch4457%107290.8147.638-2.602.75109.6
Clint Bowyer4261%100293.1142.825.34.102.05117.5
Kurt Busch7575%1106107142.682.5-3.103.4360.1
Jimmie Johnson8285%110710914887.74.303.5060.3
Kevin Harvick4167%110794.813259.84.801.3872.2
Kasey Kahne4866%110591.9132.4521.401.0380.4
Martin Truex Jr7959%9609314453.6-10.302.3090.4
Denny Hamlin4247%107583.3122.348.1-7.402.2374.2
Joey Logano1158%99383.699.746.3-0.700.5053.4
Jamie McMurray2146%11078612667-1.200.3059
Brad Keselowski1951%87478.8110.9500.400.7560.9
Paul Menard526%110669.293.642.41.100.0851.2
Ryan Newman1054%110781.894.865.2-0.700.0029.6
AJ Allmendinger3650%97484.9108.239-10.701.6769.2
Chase Elliott534%22076.98667.7-2.500.0018.3

 

Momentum

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopPosAvg.
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sDiff.Rating
Kevin Harvick59.68.29.6244440123
Martin Truex Jr59.28.45.4144453.8106.7
Kyle Busch53.26.610.613444-7.4114.7
Clint Bowyer518.88.410122458.8100.7
Brad Keselowski57.49.47024550.4104.9
Kyle Larson514.610.610.2024444.4103.2
Kurt Busch589.48.602445-0.696.7
Denny Hamlin57.810.212.402344-4.692.1
Joey Logano58.211.810.801344-2.690.6
Jimmie Johnson5201512.2013357.882.9
Paul Menard51618.61401244274.5
Daniel Suarez514.2192001122-5.873
Ryan Blaney56.88.21900333-12.2100.8
Aric Almirola513.212.210.200255389.7
Chase Elliott513.811.410.800255389.2

 

Points Changes at Sonoma in 2017

Draft Kings

 17 RaceSeasonDK Pts +/-
DriverTotalAvg DK Pts.Season AVG
Brad Keselowski67.7539.4628.3
Jimmie Johnson53.5033.8319.7
Denny Hamlin55.2540.8114.4
Kurt Busch50.0036.7413.3
Ryan Newman34.0022.0611.9
Paul Menard37.0027.219.8
Michael McDowell33.0024.988.0
Clint Bowyer54.5046.717.8
Matt DiBenedetto25.0021.793.2
Cole Whitt31.0028.252.8
Chase Elliott38.0036.791.2
Jamie McMurray27.2526.211.0
Ty Dillon24.0024.24-0.2
Austin Dillon27.5028.17-0.7
Erik Jones24.0026.9-2.9
Kevin Harvick65.5068.57-3.1
Daniel Suarez23.5026.71-3.2
Trevor Bayne15.5019.54-4.0
Joey Logano39.0043.49-4.5
Ryan Blaney33.0038.53-5.5
Kasey Kahne19.5025.29-5.8
Chris Buescher17.0024.45-7.5
David Ragan10.0024.18-14.2
Kyle Busch38.7566.93-28.2
Ricky Stenhouse Jr-10.0026.03-36.0
Kyle Larson-2.7542.15-44.9
AJ Allmendinger-16.5030.71-47.2
Martin Truex Jr-12.7542.62-55.4
  AVG. +/-13.7

 

FanDuel

 17 Race18 SeasonFD Pts +/-
DriverTotalAvg FD Pts.Season AVG
Brad Keselowski60.753.197.51
Kevin Harvick61.963.70-1.80
Michael McDowell3940.81-1.81
Denny Hamlin54.157.33-3.23
Kurt Busch5053.96-3.96
Ryan Newman39.544.15-4.65
Clint Bowyer56.561.55-5.05
Jimmie Johnson45.751.38-5.68
Paul Menard4349.06-6.06
Ryan Blaney4250.76-8.76
Jamie McMurray38.147.71-9.61
Chase Elliott4453.93-9.93
Matt DiBenedetto3143.30-12.30
Cole Whitt3548.10-13.10
Daniel Suarez33.547.09-13.59
Austin Dillon34.549.77-15.27
Chris Buescher28.443.88-15.48
Kasey Kahne26.443.71-17.31
Ty Dillon27.445.11-17.71
Erik Jones29.448.09-18.69
Joey Logano4361.93-18.93
Kyle Busch46.866.45-19.65
Trevor Bayne23.945.10-21.20
David Ragan19.446.16-26.76
Kyle Larson14.355.22-40.92
AJ Allmendinger1.850.59-48.79
Ricky Stenhouse Jr-247.67-49.67
Martin Truex Jr-1.955.59-57.49
  AVG +/-16.96

 

Top-10 and Bottom-10 Driver Values

Draft Kings

RankDriverValueRankDriverValue
1Justin Marks8.0337Cody Ware2.00
2Kyle Busch5.9836Ryan Newman3.02
3Kevin Harvick5.8635Jamie McMurray3.45
4Cole Whitt5.3334Trevor Bayne3.55
5Clint Bowyer5.0233Daniel Suarez3.56
6Aric Almirola4.8932Timmy Hill3.70
7Ryan Blaney4.5931Erik Jones3.74
8Joey Logano4.5830Bubba Wallace3.76
9Parker Kligerman4.4929Ricky Stenhouse Jr3.77
10Denny Hamlin4.4828Jimmie Johnson3.80

 

FanDuel

RankDriverValueRankDriverValue
1Parker Kligerman11.1838Martin Truex Jr.4.63
2Cole Whitt9.6237Brad Keselowski4.71
3Ross Chastain8.2136Jamie McMurray4.97
4Trevor Bayne8.2035Daniel Suarez5.01
5Gray Gaulding7.6334Kevin Harvick5.06
6Matt DiBenedetto7.2233Ryan Blaney5.08
7David Ragan7.2132Jimmie Johnson5.09
8Aric Almirola6.9331Kurt Busch5.09
9Austin Dillon6.8230Denny Hamlin5.21
10Bubba Wallace6.6729Clint Bowyer5.26

 

Drivers To Watch This Week:

Kevin Harvick: Harvick is still the most-expensive driver on the list this week, and for good reason given his season, but also his history at the track. In the last four races Harvick has a win, two top-fives, and three top-10s with 50 laps led, third most in the field, and an impressive 83% top-15 rate. He is also one of three drivers with an average driver rating of over 100, and his 110.8 mark is the best in the field. Harvick in the last 10 races at Sonoma has six top-10s with an average PD of +4.8 which is pretty solid.

Kyle Busch: The only other driver with a win in the last four races, that’s in the field, is Kyle. He also has two top-fives, three top-10s, and 22 laps led. His five fastest laps isn’t much to speak of and neither is 67% top-15 rate but he does have a 96.8 average driver rating. Busch also has two wins, three top-fives, four top-10s and 110 laps led in the last 10 races at the track. You will find amongst the track data that consistency is hard to come by here with just five drivers in the field having two top-fives so Busch’s record here is about as good as it gets.

Clint Bowyer: Bowyer doesn’t have a win, but does have two top-fives and three top-10s in the last four races, and if you go back to his last seven races, there are six top-10s in there including a win. In the last 10 races, his six top-fives and eight top-10s are the most in the field in that span. He may not run near the top of the pack (just 49% top-15 rate in the last four and 61% in the last 10) but his consistent finishes are the best of the pack. If you don’t mind not getting bonus points, Bowyer’s solid finishes every race are a sure fire way to improve the lineup.

Jimmie Johnson: It’s been a while since JJ has been mentioned in any of my write-ups and for good reason, he’s been bad this year. He has just one lap led on the year, and that came when he didn’t pit when everyone else did. So why is he in this section again? His history here is hard to pass up. Johnson has two top-10s and four top-15s in the last four races with 58 laps led, second in the field, and one of the best position differentials at +8.7 and 32 fastest laps which is tied for second as well. JJ has posted the best average finish of anyone in the last 10 races at P8, in fact it’s the only one in the top-10 on average. His 140 laps led are the class of the field and he’s yet to finish outside the top-15 in that span, with seven inside the top-10. This season hasn’t gone well but a trip back home might help settle things down, though he’s still a GPP-only play.

Kasey Kahne: Kahne has been an afterthought much of the season with his single-car team struggling to compete at most tracks, however his history here has been good even with down years at Hendrick taken into account. Kahne has three top-10s in the last four races, making him one of only four drivers to accomplish that, and he also has a sterling 12.20 position differential in that span. In the last 10 races he has a win, two top-fives, and six top-10s, and seven top-15s, with 41 laps led which is pretty solid from a guy that is usually a cheaper option.

AJ Allmendinger: Allmendinger, usually a budget play each week, he sees a big bump in price this week in DK going from an average of $5,850 up to $8,000 this week and he up to $9,100 on Fanduel. Why? Because he has open-wheel experience and is usually good at the road courses. He’s led the most laps with 60 in the last four races and averages qualifying 2.5. He only has one top-15 finish in the last four races though with an average finish of 30.8 in that span. In the last 10 he has two top-10s and five top-15s but no additional laps led. That makes him squarely a GPP play in the hopes that his bugaboos have passed and he can finish near where he starts.