NASCAR moves a bit north from it’s home-base of Charlotte the past two weeks up to the rolling hills of eastern Pennsylvania. Pocono Raceway, in Long Pond, PA, awaits to challenge the field once more this week for 400 miles around the 2.5-mile layout. Aside from the longish distance, there are some unique characteristics that separate it from pretty much any other NASCAR track on the schedule.

Lets start with the obvious. It’s called the Tricky Triangle for a reason, there are just three corners and not four. An aerial shot of the track will make this quite clear, but so does the sign painted on the wall of the track asking “What Turn 4?”. Besides having just three turns, it’s the banking of the track that also makes it unique as only Turn 1 is banked above double-digits at 14 degrees while the other two are eight and six respectively. Each turn is based off of a different old school track with Turn 1 based off of Trenton Speedway, Turn 2 based on Indianapolis, and Turn 3 on the Milwaukee Mile. The flatness of the turns makes braking and shifting properly an imperative to keep the speed and momentum going over the course of the very long laps.

Even though it is a 2.5-mile track, it is not a restrictor plate setup simply because of the lack of banking helps to control the speeds over the course of the run even with the two longest straightaways on the schedule being on just this one track. The front stretch alone is more than 3,700 feet long, and it’s the widest straightaway as well with room for five-wide to fit comfortably. The straightaway that connects the first and second turns is also more than 3,000 feet in length and known as the Long Pond straightaway before heading into the Tunnel Turn (Turn 2), getting it’s name from having the entrance and exit tunnels for the track underneath the apex. Speeds will easily top 200 mph down each of these straights and in the happy hour practice at least five cars entered Turn 1 going over 204 mph before down shifting through the corner.

As mentioned in the track breakdown, there aren’t many cautions at the track and last year the only two incident cautions in one of the races was for Jimmie Johnson and Jamie McMurray losing their brakes at the same time both into the first corner. Also mentioned was the fact that 14 out of the last 24 races have seen the pole sitter finish no worse than P3 at the end of the race and only one driver has over 60 laps in the last four races with their total reaching 178. So banking on one driver dominating in the laps led and fastest laps categories is unlikely to pay dividends as is expecting big time position changes as history has shown it’s hard to move up more than five spots over the course of the race simply because things get so spread out and single-file. Green flag pit stops are relatively easy to pull off without going down a lap simply because it takes more than 50-seconds to complete a lap around the triangle.

Playbook

Kevin Harvick

DK: $11,600  FD: $13,500

Harvick is once more the highest-priced driver in the field but the difference is substantial between both sites. He is only $300 more than Kyle Busch on DK but $1,500 more FanDuel so I like his pricing better on DK. Harvick has been consistent here of late with an average finish of 4.3 and three top-five finishes. He does only have 16 laps led, but does have 65 fastest laps (good for second in the field), and the second-highest Top-15 Rate at 88% in the last four races. The 4-car will start on the outside pole and ran P2 in happy hour practice with the best 10-lap average that also came later in the run. All of this suggest he is a safe bet to rack up a good points day once again, it’s just the price difference in FanDuel that throws a wrench into a lineup.

 

Kyle Busch

DK: $11,300  FD: $12,000

Kyle won here last year and has three top-10s in the last four trips to the track with by far the most laps led with 178 and the most fastest laps at 82. His driver rating in that span is the best in the field at 115.2, just a tick better than Harvick’s 114 mark, despite his average finish being just 12.3. If you look further back at the last 10 races, the additional six races adds three more top-10s to his record but just 19 more laps led for a total of 197 in the last 10. He will start P5 on Sunday and ran the best single-lap speed in the final practice. However he did place fifth in the 10-lap average and was more than a full mph slower than Harvick was in that category and his speed was in earlier laps than the pace setter. His price on both sites is great for the roll he’s been on and a discount from Harvick, however starting further back with a bit less speed could hamper his production just slightly compared to the guy listed above him.

 

Martin Truex Jr.

DK: $10,900  FD: $11,200

Coming out of final practice he is pretty happy with the 78-car on the track, however that has been the case before and his performance has been mixed. In the last four Truex has one top-five, two top-10s, and three top-20s with 52 laps led (fourth in the field) and 53 fastest laps (third in the field). An average start of 5.5 with a finish of 16.5 in that same span spells it out too. He did finish P6 in this race last year and won it three years ago. Truex will start P4 on Sunday and ran P3 in single-lap speed in happy hour with P4 10-lap average, so he should remain in the top-five all day if no incidents get in his way. He produced 45.25 DK points in this race a year ago and a similar performance should be on tap once more.

 

Kyle Larson

DK: $10,400  FD: $10,900

Typically a long, fast track that provides speed around the outside is just the track for Larson to be good at, however that hasn’t always been the case. In the last four races, Larson has two top-10s and three top-15s with 54 laps led and 24 fastest laps. His average finish in the last four is pushed further back in the field because of his 33rd place finish here last July. That being said in 7-of-8 races here in his career he has finished P12 or better and in this week’s final practice he was talking about how he was finally getting down the shifting and braking patterns on the track to run smoother laps. The 42-car laid down the second-best 10-lap average, just a half a mile an hour slower than the 4-car and had the sixth-fastest single lap as well. He will start P13 and with him figuring out the track and having a good long-run car, he should be able to move up well in the race and could garner a top-five finish.

 

Brad Keselowski

DK: $9,800  FD: $11,000

The only driver in the field with a better average finish that Harvick in the last four is Keselowski. His 3.8 mark in the category is due to the four top-five finishes in that span, but that comes without a win. His 25 laps led and 34 fastest laps put him right in the mix in those tallies and his 104 driver rating makes him the fourth and final driver with a mark of triple-digits in the last four trips to Pocono. Aside from the recent good results, he also has six top-fives and seven top-10s in the last 10 races at the Triangle with 141 laps led. While his history here is great, the speed he has shown this week isn’t. The 2-car qualified P17 for Sunday and ran P20 in single lap speed in final practice, while also not running 10-consecutive laps to get an idea of long-run speed. With this discrepancy he may be a better bet as a GPP play rather than cash as it will be a task for him to keep his run of top-fives going.

 

Clint Bowyer

DK: $9,500  FD: $10,300

One top-10 and three top-20s is what Bowyer has to show for his efforts in the last four races with just a 31% Top-15 Rate. So why is he in the playbook this week then? Well starting P9 while running faster than that at practice is a good reason. He ran P3 in 10-lap average in final practice and ran P8 in single lap speed in that same session and P3 in the opening session as well. Bowyer has been considerably better this season than his past few and does have five top-10s here dating back to the start of 2011. He’s higher on the salary list on DK than FD (7th vs 9th) but he is fairly priced on both sites, even being the fourth-best value driver on DraftKings based on FPPk. Bowyer fits in the GPP mold this week.

 

Chase Elliott

DK: $9,300  FD: $10,100

This will be his fifth race in a Cup car at Pocono but he has three top-10s in his previous four races here, including a P4 in his first run at the track. His 51 laps led and 39 fastest laps again fit in well in those categories and his Top-15 Rate of 85% is fourth best in the field. He nearly makes the 100-club in driver rating with a 99.3 in the stat in his four races here. This week he will start P11 which is just a few spots better than where he usually starts (14.8), and he practiced in that same area all weekend in both single-lap speeds and 10-lap averages. Elliott has finished fourth and eighth in each of the previous early races at Pocono and he should finish somewhere in there again this week.

 

Denny Hamlin

DK: $9,100  FD: $11,300

It’s a tale of two different track for Denny as he has four wins at Pocono in his career, but none since they repaved it several years ago. In the last four, Hamlin has one top-five, two top-10s, and four top-15s to his credit and an average finish of 9.3 while starting on average at 9.0. He will start 10th on Sunday and ran 12th in single-lap speeds while posting the eighth best 10-lap average in final practice. Him being the third-most expensive driver on FanDuel is a bit surprising but he does have three top-fives and four top-10s in the last five races overall this season. The price is better on DK but worth a GPP play on both sites.

 

Ryan Blaney

DK: $8,700  FD: $10,000

Blaney is the pole-sitter for Sunday’s race and has a win here previously while racing for the Wood Brothers in 2017. The only problem for the youngster is that he has just one other top-10 and two other top-15s in his last four races here and a total of 10 laps led in the last four races. It was good experience for him to hold off a charging Harvick in this race a year ago in the closing laps for the win, but unfortunately it doesn’t look like he will have the car to do that once more. His practice speeds put him in the P5-P6 range overall which doesn’t bode well as the pole-sitter. He did say after practice they were going to work on getting the balance a bit better before the start of Sunday’s race but even still, him being on the pole limits his upside and makes him a GPP play more than a cash game selection.

 

Kurt Busch

DK: $8,500  FD: $10,500

Kurt has been better than his younger brother here in the last four, save for laps led and fastest laps. He has a win, two top-fives, three top-10s, and four top-15s in the last four and 10 more laps completed than does Kyle at 618 to 608. Kurt is also the best driver in the field over the last 10 races with a win, five top-fives, seven top-10s, and nine top-15s with 89 laps led and 65 fastest laps. Busch also has a healthy +4.8 position differential in the last four races with an average finish of P7. He will start right next to his brother in the grid at P6 but his practice times were much slower than that spot at 13th in single lap and 17th in 10-lap averages which means he may have a tough time staying up that high in the order. The mid-tier pricing makes him easy to work into a lineup but he is a slight risk for a cash lineup.

 

Erik Jones

DK: $8,400 FD: $9,700

Jones may only have two races at the Cup level under his fire suit here but they have been good finishes both times with two top-10s in that span. He also has 24 laps led and 22 fastest laps in those two. Jones qualified in the 25th spot for the race but ran 15th in both single-lap runs and 10-lap average which suggests he can move up pretty easily as does his +6.5 position differential here. He also leads the field in Top-15 Rate at 91% in his time here. Jones is a mid-tier salary guy on both sites and should fit cash lineups well.

 

Aric Almirola

DK: $8,200  FD: $9,100

Almirola has been putting together a pretty solid season to this point and has four top-15s in the last five races overall with a PD of nearly +7 in that span. His history here however is a bit different than that with just one top-20 in his last three races at Pocono. Almirola has also tended to move backwards from 22.7 to 32.3 in that span. However this week he doesn’t have far to go since he starts P34 but ran inside the top-seven in both short-run and long-run speeds at final practice. The reason he starts so far back is he felt a vibration during his qualifying lap and shut it down, however the team hasn’t found anything to suggest it was anything other than a one time occurrence. He will be a highly-owned driver in all formats but is nearly a must play.

 

Alex Bowman

DK: $7,900  FD: $7,400

Bowman hasn’t run here in a Cup car since 2015 but that rust hasn’t been showing this week as his practice speeds have been great so far. He ran P4 and P10 in short-run and long-run speeds in the happy hour session and run the second-fastest lap in the opening practice. bowman went out and qualified P14 showing that he has room to move up and is with a team that knows what it takes to win here as the 88-car swept the 2014 races here. He has head a solid stretch with two top-10s in the last five races overall and has been one of the most consistent Hendrick cars this season as a whole. He’s a bit pricier than I like on DraftKings but should still work well in either format and he’s a pretty good budget play in FanDuel.

 

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

DK: $6,900  FD: $8,500

Stenhouse is starting P23 for the race but practiced a bit faster than that on both Friday and Saturday before spinning out during the happy hour session and flat spotting a tire. The 17-car has two top-15s and four top-20s in the last four races here, which isn’t as shiny as others, but for this price range that’s not bad. He has also posted a +5.8 PD in the recent history here. Now a downside for Stenhouse is the fact that the only times he’s finished worse than 20th this season are when he’s wrecked or spun in practice (five times). He didn’t have to bring out the backup car this time, but it’s not a great stat for him. That being said, he’s a budget-friendly GPP play on DK and a bit more pricey option on FD.

 

Paul Menard

DK: $6,600  FD: $7,600

Menard doesn’t have a great history here, he’s posted just two top-20s in the last four races here. However he’s hasn’t been in the best equipment as shown by a lack of long-run speed in the previous races. Once again we are unsure of the long-run speed as he didn’t run 10-straight laps in practice, but he did run faster than his qualifying spot and he is in a car that won this race a year ago piloted by Ryan Blaney. He is strictly a low-tier GPP play but the salary is enticing given the team he’s driving for and the fact he has two top-15s in the last five races overall this year.

 

Matt DiBenedetto

DK: $5,700  FD: $6,000

DiBenedetto doesn’t have any finishes of note in the last four races at Pocono but that being said, he has shown speed this week. He ran seven spots faster at practice than where he qualified at that should count for something. DiBenedetto is also the fifth-best value driver on FD based on FPPK and 16th on DK which again for a budget-play to round out a lineup isn’t bad. His average finish over the 13 points races this season is 25.2, which again isn’t bad from this spot.

 

Ty Dillon

DK: $5,300  FD: $6,400

The younger Dillon brother has two top-20s in his three races at the track and a field best +9.6 position differential in that span as well. He will roll off in 29th spot in the race and did run about there in practice. In the four total races he’s run here, Dillon has finished 18th, 21st, 18th, and 17th respectively and could once again move through the field despite not showing the speed in practice. Like DiBenedetto he has an average finish of 25.1 in 13 races this season which is solid for a budget guy like Dillon.