DFS NASCAR: Toyota Owners 400 Track Breakdown

The short track stretch of the season continues this week at Richmond. Bristol took two days to finish due to terrible weather forecasts but when it was run, the racing was exciting and Kyle Busch won his second race in a row after a bump-and-run move with a handful of laps left.

While the track is another short one, 0.75-miles, it is a different layout than the other ones of less than a mile (Martinsville and Bristol) in that it is a tri-oval and has banking in between the two others in the turns at 14 degrees. With it being that layout, it carries more like a 1.5-mile than Bristol or Martinsville but the short track still means the laps led domination can be in play as well as it is still decently hard to pass, just three drivers have a +6 position differential in the last four races. Going back to the September 2014 race, no winner has come from further back than P5 to start the race and the number of lead changes have averaged 15 per race since then as well.

Weather won’t be a concern for the first time in several weeks this week as the temps should be in the low- to mid-60s on both Friday and Saturday, it’s a two day show for the Saturday night race this week, and no chance of precipitation right now. So with that the practices and qualifying runs should be run on very similar track conditions as the race will be.

I am adding a new section to the track breakdown this week, now that we are eight races into the season. Momentum is a helpful thing to know instead of just looking at things in a vacuum of how they’ve done at the track previously. Each week it will be updated to show the previous five races and who the top-15 drivers have been over that span based on finishes. The more info I can get to you, the better results we can see from our picks.

As a separate note, in recent weeks I have gotten some feedback about my lineups not hitting as well as they could have, and that’s true. However a couple of points, firstly, sports (in general) are unpredictable and especially NASCAR when anything can go wrong at any moment. Secondly, as you will hear from others on Fantasy Alarm, reading the other articles and tools we put out is a better place to look rather than simply taking the lineups as the be-all-end-all to who you should play, hence the word “example” that is in the title of them. Feel free to use them as a guide post but not necessarily set in stone. I will continue to strive to give you the best data and lineups possible, but if you’ve been following the playbook all season, you’ll see that the top performing drivers have been mentioned each week.

Track Data

Last four races at Richmond Raceway

Top-15 Drivers at the last 10 Richmond Races

Top-15 Drivers at Similar Tracks (since 2015)

Momentum (last five 2018 races)

This will update each week with the most recent race making the fifth race. Therefore it will be a rolling total of just how hot a driver has been over the that stretch.

Points Changes at Richmond Raceway

The 2017 race points are the points scored in this specific race a year ago. The season DK points average is what the driver is averaging for the races thus far in 2018. It's a good to show how much over or right on that driver did at this track a year prior. Clearly, each race is different, but it's a way to gauge who fits what lineup format better. The drivers closer to their average might be better for cash whereas those to the more extreme ends of the table could fit GPPs better with a boom-or-bust type showing. The Avg. +/- number means that the whole field in general has either done better or worse than their season averages by that number.

Top-10 and Bottom-10 Value Drivers

Drivers To Watch This Week:

Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is considered one of the best short track drivers in the field, by fellow drivers, and this is his home track, and one that has been kind to him previously. In the past four races here, he has a win, three top-fives, and four top-10s with 249 laps led, second-best. Hamlin also has the best average finish in the field at 3.8 this week His price tag this week is a bit surprising given how consistent he’s been here of late, and having five top-10s in the last nine races here as well. The sub-$10k price tag should allow him to be worked in easily everywhere.

Joey Logano: Logano comes into the track that he won on last year, before it was encumbered (but that doesn’t much matter for fantasy purposes). He has a win, two top-fives, and four top-10s in the last four races, along with the second-best average finish at 5.3 in that span. The downside here is that he has just 25 laps led and 26 fastest laps, which isn’t great. If we’re talking a longer stretch of time, Logano is the best driver here over the last 10 races with two wins, six top-fives, and nine top-10s in that span with 190 laps run up front. He’s on the same type run he was this time last year (look at momentum) and he’s $300 cheaper than Hamlin.

Brad Keselowski: Keselowski, like Hamlin, is one of the better short track drivers on the circuit and that shows up in the stats. He has two top-fives, two top-10s, and four top-15s in the last four races here with 125 laps led, good for third, with 161 fastest laps, good for second. Along those lines, his 773 laps led over the last 10 races are the best in the field, by a wide margin as are his 376 fastest laps. His +6.3 position differential makes him just one of three drivers over the +6 mark this week, and his 92% Top-15 Rate puts him and Kyle Busch as the only two higher than 90% in the last four. Keselowski’s value (3.76 FPPK) puts him in the middle of the pack, but he was the only driver to score more than 100 points in this race last year.

Kyle Busch: Fresh off of two wins in a row, up comes a track that hasn’t seen him win at all in the last 10 races. In the smaller span of the last four, he has a top-five, three top-10s and 117 laps led, fourth in the field. Those aren’t terrible finishes but with an average start of P8 and finish of P9, it’s hard to see the return of value at his cost this week ($11,400). Now he is the most consistent driver in the last five races of 2018, and the only one to finish in the top-five in all of them, and does come in with a 6.06 value this week. We will have to wait and see practice runs and qualifying before deciding on cash or GPP.

Martin Truex Jr.: The knock on Truex has been that he hasn’t won a short track race yet and generally shines on the 1.5-mile variety. That’s not paying attention to Richmond though. In the last four he’s notched a top-five, three top-10s and 391 laps led, by far the most as well as 184 fastest laps, also the most. In fact his laps led in the last four are good enough for third over the last 10 at Richmond as well. Truex also has the best average driver rating over the last four races at 112.8. All of that tells you that there is indeed value in looking at Truex on a short track layout after all.

Kurt Busch: Kurt is a bonus mention this week as I typically only do five write-ups. However his run at Bristol even in an unknown backup car combines with his good showings here. He is one of only three drivers, Denny and Joey being the other two, to have four top-10s in the last four races at Richmond. Now 58 laps led and 36 fastest laps are nothing to write home about, but his eight top-10s and 458 laps led in the last 10 races are. The 41-team has been strong much of this year with four top-15s in the last five races overall in 2018 and could have another solid week in race nine.