After finishing in the top-three seemingly all year, Kyle Buschgot a win last week at Texas, and it was going away for the most part. Several drivers upped their game at the mile and a half track, which is to be expected given the speeds and drivability of the track.
This week’s test is a bit different, BRISTOL! “Thunder Valley;” “The Last Great Coloseum;” “The World’s Fastest Half-Mile;” “The Bullring;” are all nicknames for this historic dot of a track in northern Tennessee. It is a short track, yes, but it’s not your standard short track by any means. At just over a half a mile in length, it’s a touch longer than Martinsville (the shortest track on the schedule), but the main difference is the banking on the track. Turns are banked at 26-30 degrees and the straightaways are still at 10 degrees in the outside lane. Ever seen those motorcycle riders in the “ball of death” trick? That’s a little like what happens at Bristol come race time.
Laps led are the way you really rack up points this week so taking drivers in the front of the field, or those capable of moving up there and staying, are pivotal to lineup construction. If you look at the Points Changes table further down in the article, you will see that four drivers in last April’s race put up 75+-points and two went over 100. That kind of scoring will once again boost money lines upward for cash and GPP formats. Any sort of issue that happens on track can easily put a driver multiple laps down, whether it be an unplanned green flag pit stop, a tire issue, or anything unforeseen and that can reduce the upside a driver has.
Cautions are also an issue of concern in this race with six of the last eight spring races producing double-digit cautions, and nine in last April’s race. With 16-20% of the laps run in those races happening under yellow, that can also effect just how productive a driver on your roster can be, clearly there is no way to predict whether a driver will crash or blow a tire.
Track Data
Last four races at Bristol Motor Speedway
| Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Laps | |||
| Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Led |
| Kevin Harvick | 4 | 17.5 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 155 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 4 | 13.5 | 12.3 | 10.5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 81 |
| Kyle Busch | 4 | 8.3 | 14.3 | 28.3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 412 |
| Denny Hamlin | 4 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 29 |
| Kurt Busch | 4 | 20 | 17.5 | 17.8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 41 |
| Joey Logano | 4 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 114 |
| Chase Elliott | 4 | 7.8 | 10.3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| Trevor Bayne | 4 | 16 | 15 | 8.8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 4 | 22.5 | 17 | 10.3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Clint Bowyer | 4 | 21.3 | 21.3 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Erik Jones | 2 | 7.5 | 5 | 9.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 260 |
| Austin Dillon | 4 | 16.3 | 20.8 | 20.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Chris Buescher | 4 | 18.8 | 23.8 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Newman | 4 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| Kyle Larson | 4 | 12.8 | 13 | 18.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 272 |
| Jamie McMurray | 4 | 15 | 12.3 | 11.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 4 | 6 | 9.8 | 16.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 116 |
| Ryan Blaney | 4 | 9.5 | 16.5 | 22.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 4 | 16.3 | 17.8 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 4 | 28.5 | 25 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Kasey Kahne | 4 | 12.5 | 16 | 18.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Brad Keselowski | 4 | 10.5 | 21.8 | 28.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Paul Menard | 4 | 21.8 | 18 | 19.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Daniel Suarez | 2 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 16.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Ty Dillon | 3 | 26.7 | 22 | 25.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Landon Cassill | 4 | 30.8 | 24 | 27.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25 |
| Aric Almirola | 4 | 21.3 | 25.5 | 26.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael McDowell | 4 | 27.8 | 25.3 | 23.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| David Ragan | 4 | 28.3 | 27.8 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Corey LaJoie | 2 | 35 | 30 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gray Gaulding | 2 | 36.5 | 34 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed Sorenson | 4 | 36.8 | 35.3 | 33.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| William Byron | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrell Wallace Jr | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Bowman | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chad Finchum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ross Chastain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Kennington | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Rhodes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fast | Top 15 | Pass | Avg. | High | Low | Pos. | Laps Led | High to | Low to | |
| Driver | Laps | Rate | Diff. | Rating | Rating | Rating | Diff. | Pts/Race | Avg Rating | Avg Rating |
| Kevin Harvick | 189 | 93% | 20 | 113.7 | 126 | 99.2 | 12.7 | 9.69 | 12.3 | 14.5 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 92 | 71% | 6 | 94.9 | 125.7 | 79.4 | 3 | 5.06 | 30.8 | 15.5 |
| Kyle Busch | 183 | 64% | 23 | 97.5 | 133.2 | 66.6 | -20 | 25.75 | 35.7 | 30.9 |
| Denny Hamlin | 67 | 81% | -8 | 100.9 | 113.8 | 79.3 | -1.7 | 1.81 | 12.9 | 21.6 |
| Kurt Busch | 26 | 51% | 17 | 82.6 | 108.9 | 52.9 | 2.2 | 2.56 | 26.3 | 29.7 |
| Joey Logano | 60 | 74% | 2 | 99 | 117.3 | 84.2 | -3 | 7.13 | 18.3 | 14.8 |
| Chase Elliott | 71 | 79% | 5 | 96.4 | 102.2 | 93.4 | -3.2 | 1.00 | 5.8 | 3 |
| Trevor Bayne | 15 | 59% | 4 | 79.6 | 84.5 | 68.5 | 7.2 | 0.00 | 4.9 | 11.1 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 51 | 53% | 22 | 79.3 | 88.2 | 65 | 12.2 | 0.00 | 8.9 | 14.3 |
| Clint Bowyer | 9 | 35% | -1 | 65.6 | 92.5 | 35.8 | 6.3 | 0.00 | 26.9 | 29.8 |
| Erik Jones | 83 | 91% | 7 | 116.4 | 139.3 | 93.4 | -2 | 32.50 | 22.9 | 23 |
| Austin Dillon | 7 | 26% | -8 | 63.6 | 84.9 | 47.5 | -4.2 | 0.00 | 21.3 | 16.1 |
| Chris Buescher | 32 | 14% | 0 | 59 | 85 | 29.5 | -4.2 | 0.00 | 26 | 29.5 |
| Ryan Newman | 16 | 75% | -9 | 81.9 | 91.2 | 67.8 | 0.2 | 0.63 | 9.3 | 14.1 |
| Kyle Larson | 142 | 69% | 17 | 99 | 125.3 | 71.5 | -5.7 | 17.00 | 26.3 | 27.5 |
| Jamie McMurray | 21 | 78% | -6 | 85.7 | 92.9 | 76.9 | 3.7 | 0.00 | 7.2 | 8.8 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 152 | 71% | 6 | 106.3 | 127.7 | 92.3 | -10.5 | 7.25 | 21.4 | 14 |
| Ryan Blaney | 35 | 68% | -1 | 81.3 | 96.5 | 56.1 | -12.8 | 0.00 | 15.2 | 25.2 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 15 | 39% | 2 | 73.2 | 90.3 | 58.3 | -3.7 | 0.00 | 17.1 | 14.9 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 8 | 3% | 4 | 56.6 | 66.5 | 50.5 | 11.5 | 0.00 | 9.9 | 6.1 |
| Kasey Kahne | 29 | 48% | 1 | 75.3 | 92.5 | 57.9 | -6 | 0.00 | 17.2 | 17.4 |
| Brad Keselowski | 40 | 38% | -10 | 63.5 | 77.7 | 38.6 | -18 | 0.00 | 14.2 | 24.9 |
| Paul Menard | 5 | 35% | -1 | 65.9 | 70.7 | 60.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 4.8 | 5.7 |
| Daniel Suarez | 15 | 33% | -6 | 71.1 | 77.9 | 64.2 | 1 | 0.00 | 6.8 | 6.9 |
| Ty Dillon | 4 | 18% | 0 | 57.8 | 64.2 | 50.1 | 1.4 | 0.00 | 6.4 | 7.7 |
| Landon Cassill | 3 | 12% | -9 | 52.5 | 64 | 45 | 3.5 | 1.56 | 11.5 | 7.5 |
| Aric Almirola | 14 | 8% | -5 | 52.2 | 66.1 | 43.1 | -5.5 | 0.00 | 13.9 | 9.1 |
| Michael McDowell | 2 | 1% | -12 | 49.8 | 56.6 | 40.5 | 4.3 | 0.00 | 6.8 | 9.3 |
| David Ragan | 15 | 1% | -2 | 47.3 | 65.4 | 25.9 | 3.3 | 0.00 | 18.1 | 21.4 |
| Corey LaJoie | 0 | 0% | 3 | 42.1 | 43.8 | 40.3 | 9 | 0.00 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Gray Gaulding | 0 | 0% | 3 | 33.6 | 34.2 | 32.9 | 6.5 | 0.00 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Reed Sorenson | 0 | 0% | -2 | 31.2 | 36 | 23.3 | 3.5 | 0.00 | 4.8 | 7.9 |
| William Byron | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Darrell Wallace Jr | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alex Bowman | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chad Finchum | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ross Chastain | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D.J. Kennington | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Harrison Rhodes | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top-15 Drivers at Last 10 Races at Bristol
| Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Laps | |||
| Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Led |
| Joey Logano | 10 | 6.2 | 14 | 12.2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 379 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 10 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 12.9 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 125 |
| Kevin Harvick | 10 | 14.2 | 8.7 | 15.7 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 449 |
| Kasey Kahne | 10 | 10.8 | 13.3 | 17.3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 165 |
| Kyle Busch | 9 | 10 | 14.1 | 22.1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 741 |
| Kurt Busch | 10 | 13.9 | 14.9 | 17.5 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 222 |
| Denny Hamlin | 10 | 5.3 | 12.4 | 16.2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 255 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 10 | 22 | 16.5 | 10.8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Clint Bowyer | 10 | 20.7 | 16.7 | 12.8 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 55 |
| Brad Keselowski | 10 | 8 | 17.3 | 20.4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 152 |
| Ryan Newman | 10 | 15.3 | 14 | 12.9 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 |
| Chase Elliott | 4 | 7.8 | 10.3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| Trevor Bayne | 6 | 19.5 | 18.7 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Austin Dillon | 8 | 18.1 | 20.3 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Erik Jones | 2 | 7.5 | 5 | 9.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 260 |
| Fast | Top 15 | Pass | Avg. | High | Low | Pos. | Laps Led | Rating | |
| Driver | Laps | Rate | Diff. | Rating | Rating | Rating | Diff. | Pts/Race | Range |
| Joey Logano | 203 | 67% | 8 | 98.9 | 137.8 | 41.6 | -6 | 9.48 | 96.2 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 198 | 66% | 6 | 91.7 | 125.7 | 50.2 | 0.6 | 3.13 | 75.5 |
| Kevin Harvick | 458 | 86% | 19 | 107.1 | 126 | 81.6 | -1.5 | 11.23 | 44.4 |
| Kasey Kahne | 222 | 64% | -3 | 88.4 | 137.4 | 57.9 | -6.5 | 0.00 | 79.5 |
| Kyle Busch | 303 | 62% | 11 | 97.7 | 133.2 | 66.6 | -12.1 | 20.58 | 66.6 |
| Kurt Busch | 181 | 64% | 7 | 89.8 | 113.1 | 52.9 | -3.6 | 5.55 | 60.2 |
| Denny Hamlin | 173 | 73% | -9 | 93.6 | 120.2 | 48.5 | -10.9 | 6.38 | 71.7 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 101 | 46% | 6 | 79.4 | 98.9 | 64.8 | 11.2 | 0.00 | 34.1 |
| Clint Bowyer | 73 | 48% | 2 | 77.9 | 108.5 | 35.8 | 7.9 | 1.38 | 72.7 |
| Brad Keselowski | 127 | 58% | 0 | 79.9 | 122.8 | 38.6 | -12.4 | 3.80 | 84.2 |
| Ryan Newman | 38 | 69% | -7 | 84.1 | 92.5 | 67.8 | 2.4 | 0.25 | 24.7 |
| Chase Elliott | 71 | 79% | 5 | 96.4 | 102.2 | 93.4 | -3.2 | 1.00 | 8.8 |
| Trevor Bayne | 22 | 40% | 3 | 72.3 | 84.5 | 47.2 | 6.5 | 0.00 | 37.3 |
| Austin Dillon | 19 | 33% | -8 | 66.8 | 97.8 | 35.6 | 0.1 | 0.00 | 62.2 |
| Erik Jones | 83 | 91% | 7 | 116.4 | 139.3 | 93.4 | -2 | 32.50 | 45.9 |
Top-15 Drivers at Similar Tracks(since 2015)
| Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Laps | |||
| Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Led |
| Kyle Busch | 22 | 6.9 | 7 | 11.9 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 1744 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 25 | 15.1 | 12 | 10.8 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 21 | 21 | 370 |
| Kevin Harvick | 25 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 10.8 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 23 | 1242 |
| Denny Hamlin | 25 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 763 |
| Joey Logano | 25 | 6.6 | 10.9 | 11.6 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 20 | 20 | 853 |
| Brad Keselowski | 25 | 9.9 | 12.2 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 16 | 19 | 647 |
| Kyle Larson | 24 | 10.8 | 11.9 | 13.8 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 927 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 25 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 17 | 20 | 1268 |
| Kurt Busch | 25 | 12.6 | 12.8 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 17 | 531 |
| Clint Bowyer | 25 | 21.2 | 18.2 | 16.2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 16 | 216 |
| Chase Elliott | 19 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 297 |
| Jamie McMurray | 25 | 15.5 | 14.1 | 14.2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 18 | 19 | 6 |
| Ryan Newman | 25 | 13.6 | 15.2 | 13.9 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 22 | 42 |
| Kasey Kahne | 25 | 16.4 | 14.7 | 14.4 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 20 | 29 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 25 | 18.8 | 23 | 20.5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 3 |
| Fast | Top 15 | Pass | Avg. | High | Low | Pos. | Laps Led | Rating | |
| Driver | Laps | Rate | Diff. | Rating | Rating | Rating | Diff. | Pts/Race | Range |
| Kyle Busch | 911 | 89% | 7 | 112.4 | 148.2 | 66.6 | -5 | 19.82 | 81.6 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 526 | 75% | 11 | 96.5 | 125.7 | 57.1 | 4.3 | 0.00 | 68.6 |
| Kevin Harvick | 1066 | 83% | 9 | 107.1 | 149.7 | 54.1 | 0.3 | 12.42 | 95.6 |
| Denny Hamlin | 531 | 73% | 3 | 96.9 | 137.8 | 48.5 | -4.7 | 7.63 | 89.3 |
| Joey Logano | 460 | 78% | 1 | 98.8 | 137.8 | 41.6 | -5 | 8.53 | 96.2 |
| Brad Keselowski | 728 | 73% | 6 | 94.7 | 133 | 38.6 | -4.1 | 6.47 | 94.4 |
| Kyle Larson | 501 | 74% | 2 | 96.1 | 141.9 | 58.7 | -3 | 9.66 | 83.2 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 781 | 83% | 2 | 104.8 | 143.2 | 54.6 | -5.1 | 12.68 | 88.6 |
| Kurt Busch | 259 | 71% | 3 | 88.9 | 148.1 | 49.7 | -4.4 | 5.31 | 98.4 |
| Clint Bowyer | 257 | 49% | 6 | 76.9 | 137.9 | 35.8 | 5 | 2.16 | 102.1 |
| Chase Elliott | 294 | 65% | 5 | 89.4 | 129.8 | 39 | -0.1 | 3.91 | 90.8 |
| Jamie McMurray | 135 | 65% | 1 | 84.7 | 112.6 | 56 | 1.3 | 0.06 | 56.6 |
| Ryan Newman | 82 | 54% | -4 | 80.2 | 94.7 | 62.9 | -0.3 | 0.42 | 31.8 |
| Kasey Kahne | 163 | 58% | 0 | 80.7 | 107.9 | 54.8 | 2 | 0.29 | 53.1 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 129 | 29% | 3 | 64.2 | 89.8 | 24 | -1.7 | 0.03 | 65.8 |
Points Changes at Bristol Motor Speedway
| 17 Race | Season | DK Pts +/- | |
| Driver | Total | Avg DK Pts. | Season AVG |
| Kyle Larson | 110.50 | 30.58 | 79.9 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 96.75 | 22.39 | 74.4 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 104.50 | 44.86 | 59.6 |
| Joey Logano | 75.50 | 43.25 | 32.3 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 51.50 | 19.31 | 32.2 |
| Corey LaJoie | 31.00 | 10 | 21.0 |
| Chase Elliott | 40.50 | 35.31 | 49.9 |
| Ty Dillon | 38.50 | 21.19 | 17.3 |
| Daniel Suarez | 37.00 | 20.25 | 16.8 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 38.00 | 21.5 | 16.5 |
| Trevor Bayne | 34.50 | 19.25 | 15.3 |
| Paul Menard | 39.00 | 25.91 | 13.1 |
| Reed Sorenson | 22.00 | 9.5 | 12.5 |
| Austin Dillon | 44.00 | 31.61 | 12.4 |
| Jamie McMurray | 35.50 | 24.36 | 11.1 |
| David Ragan | 31.00 | 23.31 | 7.7 |
| Gray Gaulding | 22.00 | 16.78 | 5.2 |
| Kasey Kahne | 27.00 | 25.03 | 2.0 |
| Denny Hamlin | 45.00 | 43.81 | 1.2 |
| Erik Jones | 36.00 | 34.97 | 1.0 |
| Ryan Newman | 32.50 | 32.17 | 0.3 |
| Clint Bowyer | 52.50 | 54.47 | -2.0 |
| Michael McDowell | 20.00 | 23.59 | -3.6 |
| Kevin Harvick | 60.50 | 64.86 | -4.4 |
| Landon Cassill | 11.75 | 20.5 | -8.8 |
| Aric Almirola | 19.00 | 35.84 | -16.8 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 9.50 | 29.72 | -20.2 |
| Kurt Busch | 9.00 | 35.5 | -26.5 |
| Chris Buescher | -6.50 | 27.44 | -33.9 |
| Brad Keselowski | -15.00 | 39.56 | -54.6 |
| Ryan Blaney | -10.50 | 51.89 | -62.4 |
| Kyle Busch | -7.50 | 65.19 | -72.7 |
| Avg. +/- | 24.6 |
Top-10 and Bottom-10 Value Drivers
| Top 10 Value | Bottom 10 Value | ||||
| 1 | Clint Bowyer | 6.64 | 38 | Reed Sorenson | 1.86 |
| 2 | Ryan Blaney | 6.03 | 37 | Corey Lajoie | 2.13 |
| 3 | Kyle Busch | 5.77 | 36 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 2.54 |
| 4 | Kevin Harvick | 5.64 | 35 | Jimmie Johnson | 2.54 |
| 5 | Ross Chastain | 4.77 | 34 | Daniel Suarez | 2.81 |
| 6 | D.J. Kennington | 4.71 | 33 | Kyle Larson | 3.15 |
| 7 | Joey Logano | 4.65 | 32 | Trevor Bayne | 3.21 |
| 8 | AJ Allmendinger | 4.64 | 31 | Jamie McMurray | 3.48 |
| 9 | William Byron | 4.62 | 30 | Gray Gaulding | 3.50 |
| 10 | Denny Hamlin | 4.61 | 29 | Chase Elliott | 3.50 |
Drivers to Watch this Week
Top-Tier
Kevin Harvick: It’s another week and Harvick is back in this section after a racking up the points again in Texas, despite not winning. If this were baseball, we’d call Harvick a five-category guy, because he fills up wins, laps led, fastest laps, position differential, and high finishes. A 4.8 average finish in the last four races leads the field, and goes nicely with his win, two top-fives, and four top-10s (best in the field). Harvick has a +12.7 position differential in that span, also best in the field, and his 189 fastest laps are tops too while the 155 laps led are fourth. He does have another steep price tag but it’s for good reason based on this season and his recent history here.
Kyle Busch: Busch won his first race of the year last week in Texas and now comes to a place that he won at the last time a race was held there. Busch swept the weekend last August for his only win here in the last four races, and in fact his only top-20 finish. The 18-car has managed to lead 412 laps in the last four, the most in the field, and has the second-most fastest laps with 183 in that span. The problem for Busch is that he has had several bad finishes here, averaging 28.3 in the last four trips, and it’s too hard to count on him finishing a race anywhere close to where he starts.
Kyle Larson: Larson is on the bottom of the top-tier pricing this week at $9,700 but he does possess some nice upside still. He has two top-10s and 272 laps led in the last four races at Bristol but has tended to go backwards a bit in that time too with an average PD of -5.7. Larson’s 142 fastest laps, third in the field, shouldn’t be surprising given his driving style but he gets a bit wild at times for a short track and hence the up and down finishes.
Mid-Tier
Erik Jones: Jones has just two races at the MENCS level at Bristol but he has a top-five and two top-20s in that span with 260 laps led, good for third in the field. The youngster has spent 91% of the time in top-15 while finishing an average of 9.5 after starting 7.5. There are far worse options out there at this mid-level price and if he has a fast car at practice, he should find a way onto a lineup.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Stenhouse has been a bit under the radar this season to this point, save for Daytona, but he could shine this week. He has the second-best PD in the field at +12.3 over the last four races along with a top-five, two top-10s, three top-15s, and four top-20s. Stenhouse doesn’t have a lap led in that time but does have 51 fastest laps and so between the position differential points and the fastest laps points, there’s almost 18 bonus points a race there. That kind of upside is nice from a mid-level salary guy.