Hope everyone had a lovely Easter this past Sunday and wishing a Zissen Pesach to those celebrating Passover this week. After the break it’s back to full-throttle racing at Texas Motor Speedway for the first time this season.
The 1.5-mile circuit in Fort Worth is arguably the fastest track of that distance on the schedule and cars routinely go over 200 mph. The banking in turns 1 & 2 are a nice 20 degrees with turns 3 & 4 being banked at 24 degrees both allowing for the drivers to carry speed easily throughout the lap. With it being a mile and a half layout and having multiple grooves it does make for more passing than is typical at a track of this size, including at the last race here when Kevin Harvickpassed Martin Truex Jr. in the waning laps for the lead.
That last few winners have been different each race with three different winners from the last four races in the field this week. There are chances to move up through the field pretty well with six drivers having +5 or better position differentials heading into this race, including Jimmie Johnsonwho won the spring race last year starting P24.
Track Data
Last Four Races at Texas Motor Speedway
| Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Laps | |||
| Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Led |
| Kevin Harvick | 4 | 7.3 | 5 | 5.3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 116 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 4 | 15.8 | 14.3 | 10.8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| Kyle Busch | 4 | 19.5 | 14 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 43 |
| Joey Logano | 4 | 11 | 7 | 3.8 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 217 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 4 | 7.3 | 4 | 4.8 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 363 |
| Chase Elliott | 4 | 20.5 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| Denny Hamlin | 4 | 10.5 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 66 |
| Brad Keselowski | 4 | 6.8 | 12.5 | 10.8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Kyle Larson | 4 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 74 |
| Kurt Busch | 4 | 10.5 | 13 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Kasey Kahne | 4 | 25.5 | 15.8 | 16.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Jamie McMurray | 4 | 13 | 12.8 | 14.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Ryan Blaney | 4 | 6.3 | 11.5 | 14.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 148 |
| Erik Jones | 2 | 20 | 15 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Newman | 4 | 17.8 | 20.3 | 18.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Alex Bowman | 1 | 16 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 4 | 12 | 13.5 | 14.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Austin Dillon | 4 | 12.8 | 17.5 | 25.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| Daniel Suarez | 2 | 13 | 18.5 | 16.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Clint Bowyer | 4 | 21.5 | 23 | 27.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Trevor Bayne | 4 | 21.8 | 23 | 21.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| Aric Almirola | 4 | 20.3 | 21.8 | 19.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 4 | 17.3 | 20 | 18.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Michael McDowell | 3 | 21.3 | 23.3 | 22.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Chris Buescher | 4 | 32 | 24 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty Dillon | 3 | 23.7 | 23.3 | 20.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Landon Cassill | 4 | 26 | 29.8 | 27.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paul Menard | 4 | 18.5 | 27 | 28.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| JJ Yeley | 1 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Whitt | 3 | 31.3 | 32 | 29.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 3 | 27.7 | 31.7 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Ragan | 4 | 28 | 32.5 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Reed Sorenson | 4 | 36.5 | 36.3 | 34.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gray Gaulding | 2 | 34.5 | 35.5 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Rhodes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Willliam Byron | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrell Wallace Jr | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ross Chastain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fast | Top 15 | Pass | Avg. | High | Low | Pos. | Laps Led | High to | Low to | |
| Driver | Laps | Rate | Diff. | Rating | Rating | Rating | Diff. | Pts/Race | Avg Rating | Avg Rating |
| Kevin Harvick | 94 | 99% | 6 | 116.5 | 133.1 | 97.3 | 2 | 7.25 | 16.6 | 19.2 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 60 | 70% | 14 | 92.3 | 113.4 | 60.6 | 5 | 1.13 | 21.1 | 31.7 |
| Kyle Busch | 76 | 64% | 5 | 93.3 | 123.9 | 76.3 | 9.5 | 2.69 | 30.6 | 17 |
| Joey Logano | 71 | 86% | -6 | 110.6 | 140.6 | 90.5 | 7.2 | 13.56 | 30 | 20.1 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 160 | 99% | -1 | 125.9 | 132.6 | 118.6 | 2.5 | 22.69 | 6.7 | 7.3 |
| Chase Elliott | 40 | 87% | 28 | 97.1 | 106.7 | 93.2 | 14 | 0.31 | 9.6 | 3.9 |
| Denny Hamlin | 27 | 72% | -14 | 87.1 | 116.7 | 55 | -1.8 | 4.13 | 29.6 | 32.1 |
| Brad Keselowski | 29 | 70% | -1 | 95.2 | 112.3 | 79.1 | -4 | 0.25 | 17.1 | 16.1 |
| Kyle Larson | 82 | 72% | 20 | 95.2 | 108.7 | 72 | 0 | 4.63 | 13.5 | 23.2 |
| Kurt Busch | 16 | 70% | 5 | 86.9 | 104 | 71.2 | -1.5 | 0.00 | 17.1 | 15.7 |
| Kasey Kahne | 9 | 52% | 0 | 78 | 84.6 | 64.7 | 9.2 | 6.00 | 6.6 | 13.3 |
| Jamie McMurray | 10 | 77% | 4 | 82.5 | 97.3 | 74.2 | -1.3 | 0.00 | 14.8 | 8.3 |
| Ryan Blaney | 81 | 72% | 0 | 95.6 | 121.8 | 65.1 | -8.5 | 9.25 | 26.2 | 30.5 |
| Erik Jones | 2 | 50% | 2 | 78 | 97.6 | 58.3 | 4 | 0.00 | 19.6 | 19.7 |
| Ryan Newman | 3 | 10% | -7 | 63.6 | 79 | 51.7 | -0.5 | 0.06 | 15.4 | 11.9 |
| Alex Bowman | 13 | 85% | 0 | 88.4 | 88.4 | 88.4 | 3 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 8 | 65% | -2 | 81.7 | 89.3 | 69.2 | -2.5 | 0.00 | 7.6 | 12.5 |
| Austin Dillon | 27 | 62% | 1 | 71.8 | 90.7 | 35.9 | -12.7 | 0.44 | 18.9 | 35.9 |
| Daniel Suarez | 1 | 37% | -7 | 71.3 | 78.2 | 64.4 | -3.5 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 6.9 |
| Clint Bowyer | 2 | 31% | -1 | 62.1 | 99.9 | 40.7 | -6 | 0.00 | 37.8 | 21.4 |
| Trevor Bayne | 12 | 28% | -2 | 61.4 | 76.2 | 41.5 | 0.3 | 0.75 | 14.8 | 19.9 |
| Aric Almirola | 4 | 11% | 0 | 61.2 | 67.1 | 49.9 | 0.5 | 0.00 | 5.9 | 11.3 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 2 | 8% | -5 | 65.7 | 68.4 | 60.5 | -1.5 | 0.00 | 2.7 | 5.2 |
| Michael McDowell | 0 | 7% | -3 | 55.9 | 59.1 | 51.5 | -1 | 0.33 | 3.2 | 4.4 |
| Chris Buescher | 12 | 7% | 5 | 56.6 | 69.7 | 41.8 | 9 | 0.00 | 13.1 | 14.8 |
| Ty Dillon | 2 | 6% | -5 | 59.8 | 72.9 | 49.9 | 3.4 | 0.00 | 13.1 | 9.9 |
| Landon Cassill | 10 | 3% | 1 | 45.5 | 49.6 | 40.6 | -1.3 | 0.00 | 4.1 | 4.9 |
| Paul Menard | 18 | 3% | -5 | 51.7 | 63.5 | 40.9 | -9.8 | 0.00 | 11.8 | 10.8 |
| JJ Yeley | 0 | 0% | 0 | 47.6 | 47.6 | 47.6 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Whitt | 0 | 0% | -1 | 38.5 | 40.5 | 35.7 | 1.6 | 0.00 | 2 | 2.8 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 3 | 0% | -8 | 39.7 | 45 | 32.4 | -2.3 | 0.00 | 5.3 | 7.3 |
| David Ragan | 10 | 0% | -6 | 39.4 | 42.5 | 36.4 | -3 | 0.13 | 3.1 | 3 |
| Reed Sorenson | 10 | 0% | 4 | 31.5 | 37.7 | 26.2 | 2.2 | 0.00 | 6.2 | 5.3 |
| Gray Gaulding | 0 | 0% | -8 | 30.7 | 33.9 | 27.5 | -2.5 | 0.00 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Harrison Rhodes | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Willliam Byron | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Darrell Wallace Jr | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ross Chastain | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top-15 Drivers in Last 10 Races at Texas Motor Speedway
| Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Laps | |||
| Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Led |
| Jimmie Johnson | 10 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 7.8 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 598 |
| Kyle Busch | 9 | 13.9 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 227 |
| Joey Logano | 10 | 10.4 | 10.7 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 346 |
| Kevin Harvick | 10 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 226 |
| Brad Keselowski | 10 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 8.3 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 480 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 10 | 11.3 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 506 |
| Chase Elliott | 4 | 20.5 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| Kyle Larson | 9 | 16.6 | 13.6 | 18.3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 74 |
| Kasey Kahne | 10 | 19.3 | 13 | 15.8 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| Denny Hamlin | 9 | 12.1 | 15 | 14.2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 89 |
| Jamie McMurray | 10 | 16 | 14.4 | 14.2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Kurt Busch | 10 | 9.8 | 14.1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 60 |
| Ryan Newman | 10 | 15.6 | 17 | 15.7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Clint Bowyer | 10 | 22.8 | 19 | 20.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| Erik Jones | 3 | 15.3 | 13.7 | 14.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Fast | Top 15 | Pass | Avg. | High | Low | Pos. | Laps Led | Rating | |
| Driver | Laps | Rate | Diff. | Rating | Rating | Rating | Diff. | Pts/Race | Range |
| Jimmie Johnson | 327 | 77% | 12 | 108.8 | 150 | 53 | 2.7 | 14.95 | 97 |
| Kyle Busch | 198 | 73% | 2 | 103.5 | 144.1 | 76.3 | 6.7 | 6.31 | 67.8 |
| Joey Logano | 163 | 78% | 0 | 103.6 | 140.6 | 44.1 | 2.4 | 8.65 | 96.5 |
| Kevin Harvick | 210 | 88% | 7 | 106.4 | 133.1 | 43.4 | -0.2 | 5.65 | 89.7 |
| Brad Keselowski | 202 | 75% | 5 | 105.4 | 145 | 79.1 | -0.6 | 12.00 | 65.9 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 226 | 88% | -3 | 109.7 | 132.8 | 72 | 2.4 | 12.65 | 60.8 |
| Chase Elliott | 40 | 87% | 28 | 97.1 | 106.7 | 93.2 | 14 | 0.31 | 13.5 |
| Kyle Larson | 131 | 64% | 11 | 88.8 | 108.7 | 58.5 | -1.7 | 6.00 | 50.2 |
| Kasey Kahne | 78 | 70% | 2 | 87.6 | 115.9 | 64.7 | 3.5 | 0.00 | 51.2 |
| Denny Hamlin | 43 | 67% | -14 | 84.5 | 116.7 | 45.1 | -2.1 | 2.47 | 71.6 |
| Jamie McMurray | 44 | 57% | -4 | 83.9 | 97.3 | 58.9 | 1.8 | 0.23 | 38.4 |
| Kurt Busch | 48 | 63% | 1 | 87.5 | 104 | 60.6 | -7.2 | 1.50 | 43.4 |
| Ryan Newman | 45 | 38% | 0 | 77.8 | 102.9 | 51.7 | -0.1 | 0.15 | 51.2 |
| Clint Bowyer | 47 | 46% | 1 | 73.6 | 100.6 | 40.7 | 2 | 0.03 | 59.9 |
| Erik Jones | 3 | 65% | 1 | 82.8 | 97.6 | 58.3 | 0.6 | 0.00 | 39.3 |
Top-15 Drivers at Similar Tracks(since 2015)
| Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Laps | |||
| Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Led |
| Martin Truex Jr | 30 | 6.9 | 6 | 6.6 | 10 | 16 | 23 | 28 | 29 | 2262 |
| Kevin Harvick | 30 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4 | 15 | 25 | 27 | 28 | 1797 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 30 | 15.1 | 13.2 | 13.9 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 23 | 524 |
| Kyle Larson | 30 | 15 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 3 | 14 | 17 | 21 | 23 | 679 |
| Brad Keselowski | 30 | 7.6 | 10.2 | 11.8 | 3 | 11 | 19 | 23 | 26 | 463 |
| Kyle Busch | 30 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 10.7 | 2 | 12 | 19 | 23 | 26 | 751 |
| Joey Logano | 30 | 10 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 1 | 11 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 505 |
| Denny Hamlin | 30 | 7.4 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 1 | 11 | 17 | 20 | 24 | 371 |
| Austin Dillon | 30 | 15.3 | 15.2 | 15.6 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 24 | 15 |
| Chase Elliott | 30 | 12.5 | 11.2 | 12.3 | 0 | 13 | 21 | 23 | 23 | 307 |
| Ryan Blaney | 30 | 12.2 | 14.3 | 15.4 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 18 | 21 | 243 |
| Kurt Busch | 30 | 10.9 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 21 | 24 | 168 |
| Jamie McMurray | 30 | 13.5 | 14.7 | 14.2 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 20 | 25 | 5 |
| Ryan Newman | 30 | 15.2 | 16.8 | 17.1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 33 |
| Kasey Kahne | 30 | 20.7 | 18 | 18.2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 16 | 18 | 5 |
| Fast | Top 15 | Pass | Avg. | High | Low | Pos. | Laps Led | Rating | |
| Driver | Laps | Rate | Diff. | Rating | Rating | Rating | Diff. | Pts/Race | Range |
| Martin Truex Jr | 1277 | 93% | 4 | 119.8 | 150 | 70.2 | 0.3 | 18.85 | 79.8 |
| Kevin Harvick | 895 | 88% | 7 | 115.9 | 150 | 62.2 | -1.4 | 14.98 | 87.8 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 463 | 68% | 12 | 91.7 | 133.6 | 53.2 | 1.2 | 4.37 | 80.4 |
| Kyle Larson | 520 | 78% | 13 | 99.6 | 140.5 | 51.1 | 2.1 | 5.66 | 89.4 |
| Brad Keselowski | 429 | 83% | 2 | 98.6 | 130.4 | 29.7 | -4.2 | 3.86 | 100.7 |
| Kyle Busch | 681 | 78% | 1 | 102.9 | 129.8 | 62.8 | -1.5 | 6.26 | 67 |
| Joey Logano | 319 | 77% | -3 | 96.2 | 149.2 | 44.9 | -2.5 | 6.00 | 104.3 |
| Denny Hamlin | 263 | 82% | -5 | 93.2 | 136.9 | 55 | -5.5 | 3.09 | 81.9 |
| Austin Dillon | 95 | 61% | 0 | 79.2 | 104.4 | 35.9 | -0.3 | 0.13 | 68.5 |
| Chase Elliott | 386 | 80% | 10 | 97.5 | 129.1 | 35.2 | 0.2 | 2.56 | 93.9 |
| Ryan Blaney | 232 | 63% | -1 | 85.5 | 128.4 | 46.7 | -3.2 | 2.03 | 81.7 |
| Kurt Busch | 134 | 74% | 2 | 87.2 | 113.9 | 67.7 | -2.5 | 0.00 | 46.2 |
| Jamie McMurray | 49 | 66% | 4 | 81.4 | 103.8 | 46.7 | -0.7 | 0.04 | 57.1 |
| Ryan Newman | 80 | 48% | -5 | 75.7 | 99.9 | 38.5 | -1.9 | 0.28 | 61.4 |
| Kasey Kahne | 74 | 43% | 2 | 72.3 | 96.2 | 41.8 | 2.5 | 0.04 | 54.4 |
Points Changes at O’Reilly Auto Parts 500
| 17 Race | Season | DK Pts +/- | |
| Driver | Total | Avg DK Pts. | Season AVG |
| Jimmie Johnson | 97 | 26.94 | 70.1 |
| Kyle Larson | 85 | 35.84 | 49.2 |
| Ryan Blaney | 84.5 | 52.94 | 31.6 |
| Chase Elliott | 68 | 33.66 | 34.3 |
| Kevin Harvick | 67.25 | 59.88 | 7.4 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 61.25 | 53.34 | 7.9 |
| Joey Logano | 58 | 43.78 | 14.2 |
| Kyle Busch | 51 | 58.72 | -7.7 |
| Brad Keselowski | 47 | 45.88 | 1.1 |
| Chris Buescher | 43 | 26.79 | 14.9 |
| Jamie McMurray | 40 | 19.59 | 20.4 |
| Kurt Busch | 38.5 | 33.06 | 5.4 |
| Erik Jones | 36 | 29.28 | 6.7 |
| Trevor Bayne | 34.5 | 16.93 | 17.6 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 29 | 18.78 | 10.2 |
| Aric Almirola | 27 | 42.11 | -15.1 |
| Daniel Suarez | 26.5 | 23 | 3.5 |
| Clint Bowyer | 25.5 | 57.25 | -31.8 |
| Ty Dillon | 24.5 | 18.29 | 6.2 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 20 | 31.39 | -11.4 |
| JJ Yeley | 17 | 20 | -3.0 |
| Cole Whitt | 12 | 26.88 | -14.9 |
| Denny Hamlin | 11 | 50.41 | -39.4 |
| Michael McDowell | 11 | 20.82 | -9.8 |
| David Ragan | 9 | 22.79 | -13.8 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 8 | 18.57 | -10.6 |
| Gray Gaulding | 5 | 14.04 | 13.9 |
| Kasey Kahne | 4.5 | 23.28 | -18.8 |
| Reed Sorenson | 4 | 0 | 4.0 |
| Austin Dillon | 3 | 34.44 | -31.4 |
| Landon Cassill | 1 | 4 | -3.0 |
| Ryan Newman | 1 | 34.31 | -33.3 |
| Paul Menard | -5.5 | 29.18 | -34.7 |
| Avg. +/- | 18.1 |
Top-10 and Bottom-10 Value Drivers
| Top 10 Value | Bottom 10 Value | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clint Bowyer | 7.07 | 38 | Reed Sorenson | 0.00 |
| 2 | Ryan Blaney | 5.95 | 37 | Landon Cassill | 0.87 |
| 3 | Kyle Busch | 5.65 | 36 | Harrison Rhodes | 1.91 |
| 4 | Cole Whitt | 5.38 | 35 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 2.72 |
| 5 | Denny Hamlin | 5.36 | 34 | Jamie McMurray | 2.80 |
| 6 | Kevin Harvick | 5.21 | 33 | Ty Dillon | 2.86 |
| 7 | Aric Almirola | 5.07 | 32 | Trevor Bayne | 2.92 |
| 8 | Martin Truex Jr | 5.03 | 31 | Jimmie Johnson | 3.10 |
| 9 | AJ Allmendinger | 4.98 | 30 | Gray Gaulding | 3.12 |
| 10 | Joey Logano | 4.81 | 29 | Daniel Suarez | 3.19 |
Drivers to Watch this Week
Kevin Harvick: Harvick was on a nice run before California and Martinsville and now resume being the top-priced guy this week, nearly $1,000 more than the next guy. He did win the last race at this track and has two top-fives, and four top-10s in the last four runs in Texas. His 116 laps led is good for fourth in the field but his 94 fastest laps slot him second in the category. Harvick will need an absolutely dominant run to live up to the salary he’s been put at though so that may make him prohibitive in some formats.
Martin Truex Jr.: Known as the 1.5-mile guy, mostly from the last two years at that distance, he has not shockingly led the most laps here in the last four races with 363 laps run up front. That being said, he doesn’t have a win here yet in his career but does have seven top-10s in the last 10 races and his 506 laps led put him second in the field in that span as do his 226 fastest laps. Truex’s $10,600 salary is much more palatable than Harvick’s $11,500 and likely to return more value as well.
Jimmie Johnson: Yes I know, JJ hasn’t quite figured it out yet with just one 40+-point race, at Auto Club, this season, but this is a track he has gotten mojo going at before. Last year in the spring race he won from P24 and got his season going in the right direction, at least temporarily. He has only led 18 laps in the last four races and has finished in the top-10 only half the time in that span. Historically though he has dominated this track with five wins in the last 10 tries and nearly 600 laps led (tops in the field) and 327 fastest laps (tops in the field). His price tag represents the sluggish start he’s gotten off to but if he figures it out, dividends could be quite high, as could be the ownership.
Kyle Busch: Kyle has been Mr. Consistent this season to this point, only scoring under 45 once, Daytona, and scoring better than 67 in each of the last four races starting at Vegas. At Texas, he has a win, two top-fives, and three top-15s in the last four races. Busch has led only 43 laps in that span and has only a 64% top-15 running rate, which is a bit inconsistent for a guy of his ilk. He does have the best average finish in the last 10 here at 7.2 and has a healthy +6.7 position differential mark in that span. The driver of the 18 does rank as the third best value play heading into the race, setting him up nicely for Sunday.
Joey Logano: Aside from Phoenix, Logano has been a pretty good bet for 44 or more points, now comes the track he has the best average finish in the field for. Three top-fives and four top-10s give him an average finish of 3.8, despite not having a win. His 217 laps led are good for second in the field and his average rating of 110.6 ranks him third in that category. He does have a win and seven top-fives in the last 10 races making him a great bet for either lineup heading into the week and his $9,100 salary makes that an easy task to do.
Chase Elliott: Chase makes the list not only for his four straight top-10s here, but also having the best position differential in the field at +14 in that span. He does only have five laps led and two top-fives, but his ability to move through the field and his consistency here specifically and this season in general point to why he’s $9,900. Elliott has looked like the best Hendrick car all season and now it’s a track they do well at which makes a dangerous combination for others on the track. If he doesn’t crash, he’s pretty much a lock for a 50+-point day Sunday.