Well what a way to start the season last week at Daytona! That race had everything, great passes, cars just loose enough to make them a real chore to driver, and a last lap block that didn’t go as planned. We will now leave Daytona and plate racing in general behind for the next several races, until April to be specific, and turn our attention to Atlanta Motor Speedway for this Sunday’s race.

Atlanta is a 1.5-mile track, like most of the tracks on the schedule, and it’s nearly identical in shape and banking to Charlotte Motor Speedway, which is also owned by Speedway Motorsports, Inc. The banking in the turns at AMS is 24 degrees, or pretty standard for a track of this length. What distinguishes Atlanta from pretty much any other 1.5-mile track is the track surface itself. If you caught the Austin Dillon interview on our very own Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM on Tuesday, you’d have found out that Atlanta has what’s described as a slick surface and it eats tires. The track hasn’t been repaved in quite sometime, in fact the drivers asked the track owners not to repave it last year so as to get one more race out of old surface. However most believe that it will be repaved after this year’s race weekend.

With tires being of such importance this week, the new pit crew changes will be brought to the forefront even more. Last week green flag pit stops were in the 16-18 second range, compared to 11-12 seconds last year. That difference will make it tougher not to lose a lot of track position in green flag stops on the shorter and more standard sized tracks. The issue with the older surface is that seeping is an issue here. It’s when the track can’t properly drain excess moisture and it makes the track treacherous and potentially unusable until it is completely dried out. This issue really only becomes a problem if there is rain in the forecast, but that’s exactly what’s being called for in the Atlanta area this weekend.

Track Data

Last Four Folds of Honor 500  On a mobile device scroll right

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Jimmie Johnson422.58.36.323334146
Kasey Kahne41515.310.51223325
Brad Keselowski498.514.51133326
Kevin Harvick42.52.8901334734
Chase Elliott217.576.5012220
Kurt Busch312980123384
Joey Logano411.88.390124484
Kyle Larson49.314.515.5012227
Denny Hamlin410.81323.80111251
Kyle Busch316.715.311.7011132
Martin Truex Jr49.59.5110033334
Ryan Newman44.31019002223
Jamie McMurray46.815.520.8001220
Ricky Stenhouse Jr413.81719.8001230
Aric Almirola421.820.515.5001330
AJ Allmendinger4192525001110
Erik Jones1231214000110
Austin Dillon413.820.526.5000110
Ryan Blaney218.518.521.5000010
Clint Bowyer424.823.527000111
Trevor Bayne315.719.317.7000120
Paul Menard4212018.5000130
David Ragan430.525.825000010
Ty Dillon324.322.319000120
Cole Whitt438.530.331000011
Gray Gaulding1313537000000
Daniel Suarez1212721000000
Chris Buescher229.52926000000
Matt DiBenedetto228.53028.5000000
Alex Bowman2363229000000
Michael McDowell330.73329.7000000
Jeffrey Earnhardt236.536.535.5000000
Darrell Wallace Jr.0000000000
Harrison Rhodes0000000000
Ross Chastain0000000000
William Byron0000000000
 FastTop 15PassAvg.HighLowPos.Laps LedHigh toLow to
DriverLapsRateDiff.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts/RaceAvg RatingAvg Rating
Jimmie Johnson8378.00%24107.4126.77416.29.1319.333.4
Kasey Kahne3156.00%385.8105.255.94.51.5619.429.9
Brad Keselowski7094.00%9102.1130.490.6-5.51.6328.311.5
Kevin Harvick24998.00%11132.3137.2128.5-6.545.884.93.8
Chase Elliott3596.00%9105.2114.995.5110.009.79.7
Kurt Busch1989.00%298.9111.891.947.0012.97
Joey Logano8188.00%4106.9126.992.32.85.252014.6
Kyle Larson1258.00%182.7112.351.1-6.20.4429.631.6
Denny Hamlin4870.00%-985.9114.967-133.192918.9
Kyle Busch1742.00%078.196.668.750.1718.59.4
Martin Truex Jr4186.00%-198.5116.671.2-1.52.1318.127.3
Ryan Newman1291.00%-1290.594.284.5-14.70.193.76
Jamie McMurray157.00%-975.884.269.5-140.008.46.3
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1551.00%-474.591.953.8-60.0017.420.7
Aric Almirola624.00%567.583.840.26.30.0016.327.3
AJ Allmendinger2917.00%-764.686.651.4-60.002213.2
Erik Jones378.00%1583.283.283.290.0000
Austin Dillon749.00%-1066.982.944.4-12.70.001622.5
Ryan Blaney2245.00%-669.169.668.5-30.000.50.6
Clint Bowyer3637.00%364.384.638.4-2.20.0620.325.9
Trevor Bayne434.00%-1269.580.963.4-20.0011.46.1
Paul Menard1220.00%167.679.6492.50.001218.6
David Ragan169.00%154.678.132.35.50.0023.522.3
Ty Dillon61.00%-164.269.555.65.30.005.38.6
Cole Whitt11.00%104352.835.17.50.069.87.9
Gray Gaulding111.00%-431.931.931.9-60.0000
Daniel Suarez10.00%-450.950.950.900.0000
Chris Buescher50.00%344.847.741.93.50.002.92.9
Matt DiBenedetto00.00%-343.245.241.200.0022
Alex Bowman10.00%34653.438.670.007.47.4
Michael McDowell20.00%-140.944.134.810.003.26.1
Jeffrey Earnhardt60.00%026.829.124.510.002.32.3
Darrell Wallace Jr.00.00%000000.0000
Harrison Rhodes00.00%000000.0000
Ross Chastain00.00%000000.0000
William Byron00.00%000000.0000

 

Top-15 Drivers at Atlanta Motor Speedway (Since 2009)  On a mobile device scroll right

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Jimmie Johnson1015.110.81425567200
Kasey Kahne1010.816.817.224455260
Kurt Busch913.612.11014688223
Kyle Busch98.311.61213457169
Brad Keselowski916.711.318.11255559
Denny Hamlin109.812.821.212445291
Kevin Harvick1016.77.410.103889901
Martin Truex Jr1010.79.81302577145
Joey Logano1018.516.316.402356162
Ryan Newman109.214.4170155716
Chase Elliott217.576.5012220
Kyle Larson49.314.515.5012227
Paul Menard1022.320.117.9012471
AJ Allmendinger919.619.418.7003460
Ricky Stenhouse Jr511.217.419001240
 FastTop 15PassAvg.HighLowPos.Laps LedRating
DriverLapsRateDiff.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts/RaceRange
Jimmie Johnson17373.0%1199.2126.755.81.15.0070.9
Kasey Kahne17254.0%087.6138.145.7-6.46.5092.4
Kurt Busch8071.0%-394.9133.373.93.66.1959.4
Kyle Busch11965.0%-1094120.768.7-3.74.6952
Brad Keselowski11277.0%792.4130.448.3-1.41.6482.1
Denny Hamlin20571.0%-397.314150.7-11.47.2890.3
Kevin Harvick39083.0%14113.3137.266.76.622.5370.5
Martin Truex Jr11284.0%-397.4116.671.2-2.33.6345.4
Joey Logano14651.0%-185.7130.8432.14.0587.8
Ryan Newman4861.0%-28410266.6-7.80.4035.4
Chase Elliott3596.0%9105.2114.995.5110.0019.4
Kyle Larson1258.0%182.7112.351.1-6.20.4461.2
Paul Menard3229.0%070.488.7494.40.0339.7
AJ Allmendinger5042.0%07599.951.40.90.0048.5
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1745.0%-157591.953.8-7.80.0038.1

 

Top-15 Drivers at 1.5 Mile Tracks (Since February 2014)  On a mobile device scroll right

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Martin Truex Jr277.65.86.67122126272053
Jimmie Johnson2714.811.312.8711141821628
Kyle Busch249910311151922878
Kevin Harvick2766.48.42132323251386
Joey Logano279.111.713.2211171919676
Brad Keselowski277.111.110.928202324607
Denny Hamlin278.212.114.9111141819271
Austin Dillon2715.617.219.9114101813
Chase Elliott1913.812.913.208131314241
Kurt Busch2610.210.310.306182124297
Kyle Larson2716.413.619.70581214101
Ryan Blaney2313.81618.20481315242
Ryan Newman2714.416.717.2031014187
Kasey Kahne2719.917.117.3039151811
Jamie McMurray2714.715.315.70110162214
 FastTop 15PassAvg.HighLowPos.Laps LedRating
DriverLapsRateDiff.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts/RaceRange
Martin Truex Jr108895.0%3120.115090.1119.0159.9
Jimmie Johnson53178.0%1299.7137.553.225.8184.3
Kyle Busch57880.0%1107.4148.469-19.1579.4
Kevin Harvick83790.0%9116.7140.676.9-2.412.8363.7
Joey Logano38273.0%096.9146.444.1-4.16.26102.3
Brad Keselowski43882.0%597.714529.7-3.85.62115.3
Denny Hamlin25374.0%-492.4117.145.1-6.72.5172
Austin Dillon11555.0%-277.3103.535.9-4.30.1267.6
Chase Elliott25470.0%1395.1129.135.20.63.1793.9
Kurt Busch20084.0%495.2125.671.2-0.12.8654.4
Kyle Larson30166.0%1386.9112.351.1-3.30.9461.2
Ryan Blaney17461.0%082.8128.430.8-4.42.6397.6
Ryan Newman3949.0%-576.799.938.5-2.80.0661.4
Kasey Kahne12951.0%277.7115.941.42.60.1074.5
Jamie McMurray4360.0%281.1103.846.7-10.1357.1

 

Points Changes at Folds of Honor 500

 17 RaceSeasonDK Pts +/-
DriverDK Pts.Avg DK Pts.Season AVG
AJ Allmendinger1423.30-9.30
Aric Almirola20.528.74-8.24
Austin Dillon0.527.60-27.10
Brad Keselowski75.2541.6433.61
Chase Elliott54.540.3014.20
Chris Buescher2626.64-0.64
Clint Bowyer4928.2820.72
Cole Whitt4119.1421.86
Daniel Suarez23.528.62-5.12
David Ragan35.524.0411.46
Denny Hamlin-18.539.96-58.46
Erik Jones40.528.8611.64
Gray Gaulding6.516.26-9.76
Jamie McMurray31.526.844.66
Jeffrey Earnhardt1314.28-1.28
Jimmie Johnson24.534.15-9.65
Joey Logano4832.4315.57
Kasey Kahne6724.9842.02
Kevin Harvick129.543.8485.66
Kurt Busch4326.6816.32
Kyle Busch1655.94-39.94
Kyle Larson54.2547.346.91
Martin Truex Jr3962.76-23.76
Matt DiBenedetto1018.93-8.93
Michael McDowell2324.85-1.85
Paul Menard1126.01-15.01
Ricky Stenhouse Jr29.527.761.74
Ryan Blaney32.525.546.96
Ryan Newman-19.7530.92-50.67
Trevor Bayne35.526.249.26
Ty Dillon42.529.6212.89
  Avg. +/-18.88

Top-10 and Bottom-10 Values Drivers

 Top 10 Value  Bottom 10 Value 
1Alex Bowman6.0834Ryan Blaney3.04
2Martin Truex Jr6.0333Jeffrey Earnhardt3.11
3Kyle Busch5.7732Kurt Busch3.25
4Darrell Wallace Jr5.0031Erik Jones3.36
5Kyle Larson4.7330Clint Bowyer3.49
6Ty Dillon4.5629Matt DiBenedetto3.51
7Brad Keselowski4.5328Jamie McMurray3.53
8Chris Buescher4.5127Joey Logano3.60
9Ryan Newman4.4826Gray Gaulding3.61
10Michael McDowell4.3625Aric Almirola3.68

Drivers to watch this week

Jimmie Johnson: Flashing back to the Austin Dillon interview for a second, Johnon was mentioned as his pick for the driver to watch out for at Atlanta since he always does well here. And Dillon is right. Johnson has two wins, three top-fives, and three top-10s in the last four races with 146 laps led and 83 fastest laps. He also has the best position differential in the field at +16.2 in that same span. All of those stats plus his impressive history at Atlanta overall and 1.5-mile tracks in general make him hard to turn down, especially at just a paltry $8,800 this week.

Chase Elliott: At $700 more than JJ we find Elliott coming to his home track. Despite racing here just twice in the MENCS he has a remarkable track record (excuse the pun) with two top-10s already and 35 fastest laps. He also has a healthy +11 position differential and has spent 96% of his time on the track running in the top-15 in the last two races. The downside is that he has yet to lead a lap, but if the speed he showed at Daytona transfers to Atlanta, that should change in a hurry.

Kasey Kahne: It’s a new beginning for Kahne as he switched teams to a single-car operation for Levine Family Racing instead of being the low man on the totem pole at Hendrick Motorsports. However, his skills here have shown through well in the last four races. He has a win, two top-fives, and three top-15s in the last four tries at Atlanta. That doesn’t bring in the 25 laps and 31 fastest laps either. His 10.5 average finish is best for sixth in the field this week. Kahne had speed at Daytona and his experience here can really help the new team new how he likes the car setup. His $6,200 price tag this week allows him to provide a boost to the lineup without costing anywhere close to a top-tier driver.

Kevin Harvick: Harvick is the second-most expensive driver this week, $300 cheaper than Martin Truex Jr., but that doesn’t mean he has worse stats than Truex. In fact Harvick in some regards has been far and away the best driver at this track in the last four races. His 734 laps led and 249 fastest laps are about 4-5 times better than the next closest driver in the field. Unfortunately he doesn’t have a win and only has one top-five in the four-race span. His three top-10s are nice as is his field-best 132.3 average driver loop rating. Running in the top-15 98% of the time is huge as are his 45.8 laps led points per race, but getting into victory lane is the only thing that can improve his stats here.

Brad Keselowski: Yes, I know I wrote about Keselowski last week as well, but as the defending winner of the race, he deserves a mention. Keselowski has three top-10s including the win last year and 26 laps led with 70 fastest laps. The downside is his negative positional differential of -5.5 in the last four tries at AMS. A rating of 102.1 puts him squarely in the top-five in the field and his 4.53 FPPK this week ranks him the seventh-best value salary-to-points wise.