The last race of the season has arrived. The one for all the trophy. The championship race. Homestead-Miami Speedway is the host site, just like it always is, for the ford EcoBoost 400 on Sunday.
Homestead-Miami is a pretty standard 1.5-mile track in the distance and banking categories, with 18-20 degree progressive banking in the turns. The shape is slightly different as it is a regular oval with no curve to the front or back straightaways. The track has been around since 1995 but didn’t host the top series until 1999. The season finale moved to Homestead in 2002 and since has hosted the championship weekend for all three series.
There are multiple ways around the track as it typical works as at least a two-groove layout but can also get three-wide at times. Several drivers like to run up by the wall all the way around while others make their track times on the lower groove. Passing here is easier than most 1.5-mile tracks with eight drivers posting +6 or better positional differentials in the last two race here.
With this Sunday’s race being the finale, it’s a slightly different points system in race. There will still be the three stages during the race, of lengths 80, 80, and 107, but the stage points won’t matter for those in the championship, but will for the other drivers now out of the playoffs. Winning the title is simple: beat the other three drivers to the finish line, even if you don’t win the race. Whichever one of the Championship Four finishes the race first wins the title. So with that in mind, let’s take a look at the final track breakdown of the season.
Track Breakdown
Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Avg. | Difference | Laps Led | Laps Led | ||||||||
Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
Kyle Busch | 6 | 3.5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 42 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 124.1 | 2.5 | 10.5 | 5.25 |
Jimmie Johnson | 13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 99.3 | 8 | 0.75 | 0.38 |
Kyle Larson | 23.5 | 3.5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 134 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 120.4 | 20 | 33.5 | 16.75 |
Kevin Harvick | 7 | 2.5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 125 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 123.4 | 4.5 | 31.25 | 15.63 |
Joey Logano | 7.5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 78 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 118.9 | 3.5 | 19.5 | 9.75 |
Jamie McMurray | 18.5 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 88.7 | 9.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
Brad Keselowski | 5 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 86 | 0 | 3 | 35 | 1 | 105.2 | -14 | 21.5 | 10.75 |
Matt Kenseth | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 101.6 | 6 | 0 | 0.00 |
Denny Hamlin | 2.5 | 9.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 95.4 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 |
Kurt Busch | 15.5 | 10.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 90.7 | 5 | 0 | 0.00 |
A.J. Allmendinger | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 0 | 73.7 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 |
Michael McDowell | 27.5 | 21.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 33 | 0 | 63.2 | 6 | 0 | 0.00 |
Austin Dillon | 13.5 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 14 | 0 | 87.1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
Trevor Bayne | 23 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 20 | 0 | 65.9 | 4 | 0 | 0.00 |
Martin Truex Jr. | 8.5 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 36 | 1 | 80.4 | -15.5 | 0.75 | 0.38 |
Chase Elliott | 5 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 95.5 | -6 | 0 | 0.00 |
Ryan Newman | 3.5 | 20.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 25 | 1 | 80.5 | -17 | 0 | 0.00 |
Ryan Blaney | 7 | 21.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 26 | 0 | 65.3 | -14.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
Danica Patrick | 32.5 | 21.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 24 | 0 | 56.2 | 11 | 0 | 0.00 |
Kasey Kahne | 23.5 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 37 | 1 | 62.2 | -4.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
Chris Buescher | 27 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 44 | 3 | 0 | 0.00 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 17 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 30 | 1 | 66.8 | -9 | 0 | 0.00 |
Landon Cassill | 33 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 35 | 0 | 43.7 | 5 | 0 | 0.00 |
Ty Dillon | 29.5 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 33 | 1 | 62.3 | 1.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
David Ragan | 37 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 29 | 0 | 48.2 | 9 | 0 | 0.00 |
Cole Whitt | 40 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 35.7 | 12 | 0 | 0.00 |
Jeffrey Earnhardt | 38 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 30 | 7 | 0 | 0.00 |
Matt DiBenedetto | 34 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 37 | 0 | 36.9 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 |
Reed Sorenson | 37 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 0.00 |
Clint Bowyer | 28.5 | 33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 43 | 1 | 42.2 | -4.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 9 | 40 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 40 | 0 | 54.4 | -31 | 0 | 0.00 |
Aric Almirola | 19.5 | 40.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 41 | 0 | 48.7 | -21 | 0 | 0.00 |
Corey Lajoie | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Ross Chastain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
David Starr | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Ray Black Jr. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Erik Jones | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Daniel Suarez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Top-15 Drivers at Homestead-Miami Historically
Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Difference | Laps Led | Laps Led | ||||||||
Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
Denny Hamlin | 23 | 10.58 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 213 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 | 124.5 | 53.25 | 4.44 |
Kevin Harvick | 12.6 | 6.94 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 315 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 99.7 | 78.75 | 4.92 |
Jimmie Johnson | 15.3 | 13.25 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 12 | 102 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 2 | 64.8 | 25.5 | 1.59 |
Matt Kenseth | 16.2 | 14.76 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 449 | 1 | 1 | 43 | 2 | 93.8 | 112.25 | 6.60 |
Kurt Busch | 13.9 | 18.13 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 97 | 2 | 1 | 43 | 2 | 108.8 | 24.25 | 1.52 |
Kyle Busch | 12.8 | 19.83 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 279 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 2 | 91.9 | 69.75 | 5.81 |
Martin Truex Jr. | 13.6 | 12.33 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 111 | 0 | 2 | 36 | 2 | 70.6 | 27.75 | 2.31 |
Clint Bowyer | 17.6 | 14.91 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 1 | 104.7 | 0.25 | 0.02 |
Jamie McMurray | 16.9 | 15.6 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 35 | 1 | 91.9 | 0.25 | 0.02 |
Ryan Newman | 11.8 | 16.47 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 143 | 0 | 2 | 37 | 3 | 109.5 | 35.75 | 2.38 |
Brad Keselowski | 11.3 | 15.89 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 106 | 0 | 3 | 35 | 1 | 91.6 | 26.5 | 2.94 |
Joey Logano | 14.3 | 16 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 78 | 1 | 4 | 39 | 1 | 80.8 | 19.5 | 2.44 |
Kyle Larson | 23.5 | 8.75 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 135 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 81.5 | 33.75 | 8.44 |
Kasey Kahne | 11.8 | 16.92 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 107 | 2 | 4 | 38 | 2 | 72 | 26.75 | 2.06 |
A.J. Allmendinger | 20.8 | 18.13 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 40 | 1 | 99.3 | 0 | 0.00 |
Top-15 Drivers at 1.5-mile Tracks (since February 2015)
Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Difference | Laps Led | Laps Led | |||||||||
Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
Martin Truex Jr. | 7.4 | 7.34 | 35 | 9 | 15 | 26 | 34 | 2,313 | 3 | 1 | 36 | 1 | 117.5 | 0.06 | 578.25 | 16.52 |
Jimmie Johnson | 14.5 | 13.54 | 35 | 8 | 13 | 17 | 27 | 771 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 3 | 98.6 | 0.96 | 192.75 | 5.51 |
Kyle Busch | 9 | 9.45 | 31 | 4 | 14 | 20 | 28 | 968 | 2 | 1 | 33 | 1 | 107.5 | -0.45 | 242 | 7.81 |
Kevin Harvick | 6.4 | 8.43 | 35 | 3 | 18 | 30 | 32 | 1,934 | 6 | 1 | 42 | 2 | 116.7 | -2.03 | 483.5 | 13.81 |
Brad Keselowski | 6.5 | 10.63 | 35 | 3 | 12 | 26 | 31 | 1,061 | 4 | 1 | 39 | 4 | 101.5 | -4.13 | 265.25 | 7.58 |
Joey Logano | 8.2 | 11.63 | 35 | 2 | 17 | 24 | 27 | 909 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 3 | 100.1 | -3.43 | 227.25 | 6.49 |
Denny Hamlin | 8.3 | 13.09 | 35 | 2 | 15 | 21 | 27 | 475 | 2 | 1 | 41 | 4 | 94.7 | -4.79 | 118.75 | 3.39 |
Austin Dillon | 15.8 | 18.6 | 35 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 43 | 3 | 78.4 | -2.8 | 3.75 | 0.11 |
Matt Kenseth | 11 | 11.62 | 34 | 0 | 9 | 22 | 29 | 506 | 3 | 2 | 42 | 3 | 98.2 | -0.62 | 126.5 | 3.72 |
Chase Elliott | 13.8 | 14.56 | 25 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 18 | 241 | 0 | 2 | 41 | 4 | 93.1 | -0.76 | 60.25 | 2.41 |
Kyle Larson | 15.8 | 17.4 | 35 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 21 | 407 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 5 | 90.8 | -1.6 | 101.75 | 2.91 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 17.8 | 13.52 | 29 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 22 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 0 | 86.6 | 4.28 | 3.25 | 0.11 |
Kurt Busch | 9.9 | 11.21 | 33 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 29 | 342 | 4 | 2 | 34 | 2 | 94.3 | -1.31 | 85.5 | 2.59 |
Ryan Newman | 14.3 | 16.17 | 35 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 25 | 30 | 0 | 3 | 40 | 4 | 78.5 | -1.87 | 7.5 | 0.21 |
Ryan Blaney | 13.5 | 18.32 | 31 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 247 | 1 | 3 | 43 | 3 | 80.4 | -4.82 | 61.75 | 1.99 |
Drivers to watch this week:
Kyle Busch: After his win at Martinsville three weeks, he’s had two races to get everything ready for his shot at a second title in three years. He has a win here previously, in 2015, and then finished P6 in 2016. His 3.5 average finish is tied for second in the field and his 42 laps led are fifth in the field. He and the other Toyota team drivers have won seven of nine playoff races thus far and with his record here, he could very well make it eight of 10 to finish the season.
Kevin Harvick: Harvick has the best average finish in the field this week, which isn’t shocking, but for a guy who hasn’t won in the past two, it’s pretty impressive. He’s second in the filed in laps led at 125 and has the second-best Driver Rating at 123.4 in the past two runs at Homestead. Harvick has one win in 16 races here with eight top-fives and 14 top-10s and the second-most laps led at 315 career-wise. Harvick is a major contender this Sunday to be sure.
Brad Keselowski: Keselowski hasn’t necessarily been the strongest driver in the field here recently, but does have a P3 to his credit. He’s fourth in the lineup in laps led with 86 run in front. Overall in nine races here he’s got two top-fives, three top-10s, and six top-20s. So if he wins the race on Sunday, if that’s what it will take, would be his first ever at the 1.5-mile layout and his fourth in the last three seasons at the distance.
Martin Truex Jr.: Truex has been the favorite to win the championship nearly from the jump this season, and has done nothing to dissuade folks from thinking that in the playoffs. Recently at Homestead though, he’s been subpar for his standards. A P12 is the best finish he’s been able to muster in the last two and hasn’t led a single lap, which is shocking for him given his propensity for leading at 1.5-mile tracks. He, like Keselowksi, has never won at Homestead but has three top-fives in 12 races and seven top-10s as well. Truex Jr. has been so dominant on 1.5-mile tracks this season however, it’d be hard to see him doing anything other than running near the front of the pack.
Kyle Larson: Larson, another top-choice to be in the championship, was eliminated from contention by an engine issue at Kansas four weeks ago. However that doesn’t mean his impressive stats at Sunday’s race can be ignored. He has by far the best positional differential in the field at +20 in the last two races, going from start of 23.5 to a finish of 3.5 (P2 and P5). He also led the most laps in the last two with 134 up front and style of driving the outside wall that makes him a threat every time. His worst finish, in four races at Homestead-Miami, is P15 giving him a career average top-10 finish of 8.75. His $9,500 price tag this week makes him more than tantalizing to play.