First Data 500
Martinsville Speedway
Kansas was all it was hyped to be as an elimination race on Sunday. In the end Martin Truex Jr. won his seventh race of the season, that’s right the seventh. It wasn’t without issues however. He was sent to the back of the pack for what was ruled a lane change on a restart before the start/finish line. There was also a large crash that ended the day for a few playoff contenders, because they were involved and because a rules violation in the case of Matt Kenseth. The great season of Kyle Larson came to an end abruptly early in the race when a blown engine forced him to watch from the pit, hoping someone would fall just short of the next round.
From the suburbs of Kansas City to the farmland of southern Virginia, for the First Data 500 at Martinsville Speedway. It will be the last short track race of the season and the first race in the Round of 8. A win here and your ticket is punched to Miami-Homestead for the championship. Martinsville is the only tracks to host a race every year since the inaugural season back in 1949, but for a change, this will be the first race with the possibility of racing under the lights.
“The Paperclip” as it’s known, is the shortest track on the schedule at just .526 miles per trip around and it has some of the shallowest banking in the turns at just 12 degrees. It is also the only track with asphalt straightaways and concrete corners which, with the rainy weather, could affect the grip differently as the race continues. With the shortness of track and the shallow banking, it’s very hard to pass here, only four drivers (with more than two races in the last three years) have a positional differential of +6 or better.
Stats tell us that 70% of winners have come from inside the top-10 starting positions and 87% from inside the top-five. However only a few of the last 12 races have been one by some one inside the top-five. Pole sitters tend to lead the most laps but rarely win the race surprisingly. With the tough passing and the copious amounts of laps being run, the guys that have led a lot of laps and the four that have moved through the field hold the most value for lineups.
Qualifying just finished and can be found at NASCAR.com. Jimmie Johnson qualified P24 but will start at the back of the field after having to make changes to his car after a spin in the second round of qualifying. Lineups have been adjusted accordingly.
DFS PLAYBOOK
Driver | Draft Kings | NASCAR Live | Description |
Martin Truex Jr. | $11,200 | $28.25 | This track maybe the one weakness for MTJ. He does have three top-10s in the last five races here and 239 laps led, which both make up big parts of his career numbers here. P21 & P3 at practice |
Kyle Busch | $11,000 | $27.50 | In the last four races here, Kyle has a win and four top-fives along with 629 laps led (most in the field). He also has the best average finish in that span. He's run top-10 in both practices. Cash or GPP |
Kyle Larson | $10,400 | $27.75 | Larson has one top-five, one top-10, and four top-20s in his last five races here. Short tracks are not known to be his thing but he did get a win at Richmond earlier in the year. P2 & P17 at practice |
Kevin Harvick | $10,200 | $27.25 | Harvick has posted two top-10s and five top-20s with 264 laps led in the last five races here. Career-wise he has a win and 14 top-10s in 32 races. Harvick has run in the mid-20s this week. GPP only |
Jimmie Johnson | $9,800 | $23.50 | Johnson is the best driver on the track this week. Nine wins, 19 top-fives, 24 top-10s and 2,839 career laps led here. Six of those wins have come in this race specifically & Sunday could be the same |
Brad Keselowski | $9,600 | $26.00 | Keselowski is one of only two drivers with four top-fives in the last five races, he also won here in the spring. Running top-10 in both practices makes him a steady play in either format on Sunday. |
Chase Elliott | $9,400 | $26.50 | Elliott has four races here total, and each time he's gotten better including a top-five finish in the spring. He was fastest in second practice for the long run and makes a solid play in either format |
Denny Hamlin | $9,200 | $27.25 | Hamlin is easily the second-best driver in the field this week behind JJ. Martinsville is also his best track on the schedule. That combined with the great speed he's shown make him a cash game play |
Joey Logano | $9,000 | $22.75 | Logano has two top-fives and three top-10s in the last five races and the second-most laps led in the field at 358. Logano ran P12 in practice 1 and led pracitce 2 with a mock qualifying lap. Either |
Jamie McMurray | $8,500 | $26.25 | McMurray is a sneaky play this week with a top-five and three top-10s in the last five races here, 15 top-10s in his 29 career races at Martinsville. He ran P8 & P6 at practice & is both GPP & cash |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $8,000 | $13.75 | The track with the most top-five finishes for Jr. is Martinsville (13). He also won here in 2014. He ran P19 & P14 in both practices and has strung together three-straight top-10s the last three weeks |
Austin Dillon | $7,500 | $21.50 | Dillon could be another sleeper this week with two top-five finishes in the last five races and the best positional differential in the field at +9.6. He ran P25 and P10 in practice and works in both |
Chris Buescher | $6,800 | $14.00 | Buescher is one of only four drivers in the field with a +6 or better PD, his is +9.55 over the last five races. His best finish here was P11 and he's run P18 & P24 in practice. Works better for GPP |
A.J. Allmendinger | $6,000 | $10.00 | Allmendinger is thought of as a road course guy, but Martinsville has been a good place for him too. One top-five and three top-10s in the last five races and six top-10s in his last seven here. Cash |
Cole Whitt | $5,100 | $5.00 | Whitt is the third and last driver with a PD over +9 this week at +9.25. He's finished between P20 and P30 in the last four races and works as a nice budget-friendly play at just $5,100 this week. |
OPTIMAL LINEUPS
Draft Kings Cash | |
Kyle Busch | $11,000 |
Brad Keselowski | $9,600 |
Denny Hamlin | $9,200 |
Joey Logano | $9,000 |
A.J. Allmendinger | $6,000 |
Cole Whitt | $5,100 |
Total | $49,900 |
Draft Kings GPP | |
Martin Truex Jr. | $11,200 |
Kyle Larson | $10,400 |
Joey Logano | $9,000 |
Chris Buescher | $6,800 |
Aric Almirola | $5,900 |
David Ragan | $5,700 |
Total | $49,000 |
Draft Kings GPP #2 | |
Jimmie Johnson | $9,800 |
Chase Elliott | $9,400 |
Denny Hamlin | $9,200 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $8,000 |
Austin Dillon | $7,500 |
Cole Whitt | $5,100 |
Total | $49,000 |
NASCAR Live | |
Kyle Busch | $27.50 |
Chase Elliott | $26.50 |
Joey Logano | $22.75 |
A.J. Allmendinger | $10.00 |
Cole Whitt | $5.00 |
Bonus Winner | Joey Logano |
Bonus Manufacturer | Ford |
Total | $91.75 |
Streak To The Finish | Kyle Busch |