Sunday brings with it a return to a fairly standard 1.5-mile track layout at Kansas Speedway. It also is the final race of the Round of 12, meaning four more drivers will be eliminated from Championship contention.
Along with Chicagoland Speedway, which started off the playoffs, Kansas Speedway opened in 2001 and has hosted two races annually at the MENCS level. Opening in 2001 makes it one of the newest tracks on the schedule and therefore has slightly less history behind it, though racing twice a year certainly bolsters the numbers. When it originally opened, it had fairly shallow banking at just 15 degrees, but following a 2012 repave, the banking increased to 17-20 depending on the lane in the turns.
Playoff Standings (heading into Kansas)
1 | Martin Truex Jr. | Leader | Into Round of 8 |
2 | Brad Keselowski | -19 | Into Round of 8 |
3 | Kyle Larson | -24 |
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4 | Kevin Harvick | -31 |
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5 | Denny Hamlin | -32 |
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6 | Chase Elliott | -33 |
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7 | Ryan Blaney | -44 |
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8 | Jimmie Johnson | -46 |
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9 | Kyle Busch | -53 |
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10 | Matt Kenseth | -54 |
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11 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | -68 |
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12 | Jamie McMurray | -75 |
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As you can see from the table, only a quarter of the spots in the next round have been clinched so far and a few drivers will need a win, or serious help, to make it through the second round. Five drivers are within seven points of each other, so expect some furious racing and blocking to happen throughout the race as every spot on the track counts for a point.
Track Data
Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Avg. | Difference | Laps Led | Laps Led | ||||||||
Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | Top 20s | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
Kevin Harvick | 11 | 4.8 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 158 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 121.1 | 6.2 | 39.5 | 7.90 |
Kyle Busch | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 128 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 115.8 | 0 | 32 | 8.00 |
Jimmie Johnson | 21 | 9.8 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 99.4 | 11.2 | 3.75 | 0.75 |
Joey Logano | 7.4 | 16.8 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 76 | 1 | 1 | 38 | 2 | 102.3 | -9.4 | 19 | 3.80 |
Martin Truex Jr. | 3.8 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 371 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 119.2 | -6.2 | 92.75 | 18.55 |
Ryan Blaney | 8.3 | 7.5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 88 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 100.1 | 0.8 | 22 | 5.50 |
Brad Keselowski | 6.8 | 13.2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 75 | 1 | 2 | 38 | 1 | 94.8 | -6.4 | 18.75 | 3.75 |
Matt Kenseth | 9.2 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 273 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 108.8 | 0.2 | 68.25 | 13.65 |
Kurt Busch | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 98.4 | -1.4 | 6 | 1.20 |
Kasey Kahne | 20.8 | 12.4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 86.8 | 8.4 | 0 | 0.00 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 21.8 | 14.75 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 79.9 | 7.05 | 0.5 | 0.13 |
Denny Hamlin | 7 | 23.6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 41 | 2 | 84 | -16.6 | 0.25 | 0.05 |
Ryan Newman | 12.2 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 1 | 79.1 | -3.8 | 0 | 0.00 |
Austin Dillon | 18.6 | 18.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 41 | 1 | 77.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.10 |
A.J. Allmendinger | 23.2 | 17.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 30 | 0 | 68.5 | 5.8 | 0 | 0.00 |
Trevor Bayne | 20 | 20.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 31 | 0 | 64.3 | -0.2 | 0.25 | 0.05 |
Jamie McMurray | 18.6 | 20.8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 37 | 0 | 69.2 | -2.2 | 0 | 0.00 |
Kyle Larson | 16.2 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 1 | 85.3 | -6.8 | 0.75 | 0.15 |
Clint Bowyer | 28.2 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 1 | 59.1 | 5.2 | 0.75 | 0.15 |
Chase Elliott | 12 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 31 | 0 | 80.3 | -11 | 1 | 0.33 |
Daniel Suarez | 15 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 85 | 8 | 0 | 0.00 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 13.8 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 24 | 0 | 74.4 | -2.2 | 0 | 0.00 |
Paul Menard | 16 | 26.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 18 | 40 | 2 | 65.1 | -10.4 | 1.75 | 0.35 |
Danica Patrick | 24.4 | 24.6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 36 | 1 | 57.6 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.10 |
Aric Almirola | 20.8 | 26.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 40 | 2 | 60.2 | -5.4 | 0 | 0.00 |
David Ragan | 28.2 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 36 | 0 | 46.8 | 0.2 | 0.25 | 0.05 |
Michael McDowell | 32.3 | 24.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 36 | 0 | 47.8 | 7.55 | 0 | 0.00 |
Ty Dillon | 27 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 26 | 0 | 64.5 | 7 | 0 | 0.00 |
Chris Buescher | 25 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 24 | 0 | 59.8 | 4 | 0 | 0.00 |
Erik Jones | 22 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 40 | 0 | 63.8 | -9 | 0.75 | 0.38 |
Matt DiBenedetto | 28.6 | 28.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 32 | 0 | 43.8 | 0.4 | 0.25 | 0.05 |
Landon Cassill | 37.4 | 30.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 43 | 1 | 41.7 | 7.2 | 0 | 0.00 |
Reed Sorenson | 39.5 | 32.5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 38 | 0 | 31.5 | 7 | 0 | 0.00 |
Cole Whitt | 34.4 | 33.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 39 | 0 | 35.3 | 1.2 | 0 | 0.00 |
Corey LaJoie | 38 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 42.5 | 11 | 0 | 0.00 |
Timmy Hill | 39 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 31.2 | 11 | 0 | 0.00 |
Brett Moffitt | 37 | 33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 34 | 0 | 37 | 4 | 0 | 0.00 |
Jeffrey Earnhardt | 27 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 33 | 0 | 32 | -6 | 0 | 0.00 |
Gray Gaulding | 25 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 33.4 | -9 | 0 | 0.00 |
Derrike Cope | 28 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 39 | 1 | 26.8 | -11 | 0 | 0.00 |
BJ McLeod | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Top-15 Drivers at Kansas Speedway Historically
Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Difference | Laps Led | Laps Led | ||||||||
Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | Top 20s | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
Jimmie Johnson | 14.2 | 9.59 | 22 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 19 | 601 | 3 | 1 | 40 | 1 | 4.61 | 150.25 | 6.83 |
Matt Kenseth | 13.1 | 13.09 | 23 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 18 | 774 | 2 | 1 | 39 | 2 | 0.01 | 193.5 | 8.41 |
Kevin Harvick | 15.4 | 10.04 | 23 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 559 | 3 | 1 | 35 | 1 | 5.36 | 139.75 | 6.08 |
Joey Logano | 9.8 | 18.88 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 294 | 1 | 1 | 39 | 3 | -9.08 | 73.5 | 4.59 |
Kyle Busch | 13.7 | 17.74 | 19 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 215 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 4 | -4.04 | 53.75 | 2.83 |
Martin Truex Jr. | 11.2 | 15.89 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 622 | 1 | 1 | 43 | 1 | -4.69 | 155.5 | 8.64 |
Denny Hamlin | 13.1 | 17 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 69 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 2 | -3.9 | 17.25 | 0.96 |
Brad Keselowski | 12.1 | 13.13 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 159 | 1 | 1 | 38 | 1 | -1.03 | 39.75 | 2.65 |
Ryan Newman | 13.5 | 17.57 | 23 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 128 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 4 | -4.07 | 32 | 1.39 |
Kasey Kahne | 14.7 | 13.45 | 20 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 102 | 3 | 2 | 37 | 1 | 1.25 | 25.5 | 1.28 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 15.3 | 16.24 | 21 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 148 | 1 | 2 | 39 | 2 | -0.94 | 37 | 1.76 |
Kurt Busch | 16 | 17 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 263 | 1 | 2 | 42 | 2 | -1 | 65.75 | 2.86 |
Clint Bowyer | 19.6 | 16.72 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 51 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 2 | 2.88 | 12.75 | 0.71 |
Ryan Blaney | 10.8 | 11.4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 88 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 0 | -0.6 | 22 | 4.40 |
Paul Menard | 13.4 | 18.76 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 24 | 0 | 3 | 40 | 2 | -5.36 | 6 | 0.35 |
Top-15 Drivers on 1.5-mile Tracks (since February 2015)
Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Difference | Laps Led | Laps Led | |||||||||
Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | Top 20s | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
Martin Truex Jr. | 7.6 | 7.7 | 33 | 8 | 13 | 24 | 32 | 2,115 | 2 | 1 | 36 | 1 | 116.8 | -0.1 | 528.75 | 16.02 |
Jimmie Johnson | 14.8 | 13.21 | 33 | 8 | 13 | 17 | 26 | 771 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 3 | 100.1 | 1.59 | 192.75 | 5.84 |
Kyle Busch | 9.2 | 9.1 | 29 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 26 | 849 | 2 | 1 | 33 | 1 | 107.9 | 0.1 | 212.25 | 7.32 |
Brad Keselowski | 6.3 | 10.73 | 33 | 3 | 11 | 25 | 29 | 1,043 | 4 | 1 | 39 | 4 | 102.1 | -4.43 | 260.75 | 7.90 |
Kevin Harvick | 6.7 | 8.67 | 33 | 2 | 17 | 28 | 30 | 1,859 | 6 | 1 | 42 | 2 | 116.1 | -1.97 | 464.75 | 14.08 |
Joey Logano | 7.1 | 11.48 | 33 | 2 | 17 | 23 | 26 | 908 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 3 | 101.7 | -4.38 | 227 | 6.88 |
Denny Hamlin | 8.6 | 13.64 | 33 | 2 | 13 | 19 | 25 | 405 | 2 | 1 | 41 | 4 | 94 | -5.04 | 101.25 | 3.07 |
Austin Dillon | 16 | 18.91 | 33 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 43 | 3 | 78.1 | -2.91 | 3.5 | 0.11 |
Kyle Larson | 16 | 16.15 | 33 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 21 | 333 | 0 | 2 | 37 | 3 | 91.2 | -0.15 | 83.25 | 2.52 |
Matt Kenseth | 10.5 | 11.06 | 32 | 0 | 8 | 21 | 28 | 477 | 3 | 2 | 42 | 2 | 97.9 | -0.56 | 119.25 | 3.73 |
Chase Elliott | 12.9 | 15.3 | 23 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 16 | 240 | 0 | 2 | 41 | 4 | 92.7 | -2.4 | 60 | 2.61 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 17.8 | 12.96 | 27 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 21 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 0 | 87.4 | 4.84 | 2.5 | 0.09 |
Kurt Busch | 10.1 | 11.58 | 31 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 27 | 342 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 2 | 94 | -1.48 | 85.5 | 2.76 |
Ryan Newman | 13.8 | 15.55 | 33 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 24 | 29 | 0 | 3 | 40 | 3 | 79.7 | -1.75 | 7.25 | 0.22 |
Kasey Kahne | 18.7 | 17.52 | 33 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 43 | 4 | 77.6 | 1.18 | 2.5 | 0.08 |
Drivers to watch this week:
Kevin Harvick: Harvick appears to be one of the safer drivers coming into the week, in terms of making it through, but anything can happen. However he does have the second-best average finish here in the last five races at 4.8 with a win (this race last year), four top-fives and four top-10s. In addition to the 158 laps led, good for third-most in that span, he has a healthy +6.2 position differential. Harvick has finished in the top-five in more than half of the last 33 races run at this distance, as well as being one of only two drivers to lead 1,500+ laps in that span.
Kyle Busch: After a rocky Talladega weekend, Busch finds himself potentially getting knocked out after Sunday’s race, however given his history here, that may not be the case. In the last four races at Kansas, Busch has posted a win, four top-fives, and 128 laps led. He’s been very good at this distance in the last three years with four wins, 14 top-fives, and 19 top-10s in the last 29 races run. All of that empirical data places him in the thick of things come Sunday afternoon, not to mention that he’s won when he’s had too several times already.
Jimmie Johnson: Stop me if you’ve heard this before, Johnson is good at mile and a half tracks. Along with Martin Truex Jr., they have combined to win nearly half of the races at this distance in the last three years. Specifically at Kansas, JJ has a win, and three top-fives in the last five races as well as the third-best average finish over those five races. The best PD in the field, and his dominant history at this distance suggest he should be a contender to not just move through to the next round, but also to win the race this weekend.
Ryan Blaney: Blaney has had a fast car for several races in the playoffs, and he remains on the positive side of the bubble, for now. With such established drivers just nine total points behind him, in Busch and Johnson, he will have to drive like he has previously at Kansas. Blaney has himself two top-fives, and three top-10s in the last four races here, while leading 88 laps as well. The worst he’s finished is 14th which explains his 7.5 average finish mark. He is also one of just six drivers with a driver rating at 100 or more in the field. If he has another fast car, $8,500 won’t be a bad price to pay for steady driver.
Matt Kenseth: Kenseth has been lost in the shuffle a bit the last couple of weeks, despite driving near or at the front of the field a few times. Now, being eight points to the bad of the cutoff, he will have to show once more his skill at Kansas. He may not have a win in the last five races, but he does have a top-five and three top-10s, and the second-most laps led of 273. He also has the fourth-best driver rating at 108.8 in that span. Kenseth is a two-time winner at Kansas with seven top-fives and 13 top-10s in 23 career races, not to mention the most laps led here in the field with 774. Not only is he trying to secure a spot in the next round of the Chase, but he’s also still trying to secure a ride for the 2018 season; a great performance on Sunday could go a long way to accomplishing both of those tasks.