Alabama 500
Talladega Superspeedway
Last week’s race opened up the Round of 12 with the Bank of America 500 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. And just like other 1.5-mile races, Martin Truex Jr. nailed down another win to clinch a spot in the Round of 8. It wasn’t as dominating as previous wins at that distance, five in the last eight races, but it got the job done. Kyle Busch put himself in a precarious position coming into ‘Dega week with a rough run on Sunday that saw him hit the wall several times and then need medical attention when the race ended.
This Sunday is the second race of the Round of 12 and the second race at Talladega Superspeedway this season. The one back in May ran like a typical restrictor plate race, and included a major “big one” that damaged nearly half the cars left in the race. Ultimately Ricky Stenhouse Jr. made a final lap pass to take the win away from Kyle Busch.
Talladega is one of two restrictor plate tracks on the circuit, with Daytona being the other. The length, 2.66 miles, and banking, 32.4-33 degrees, are both tops on the NASCAR schedule and thus the restrictor plates reduce the speed to a point where the cars are still driveable, though not stable. Pack racing will ensue without there being a major difference in overall speed between the cars and with pack racing comes big wrecks. It’s the most unpredictable track on the schedule, and used to be the last race of this round, until this year. Overall 83% of winners have come from the top-five starting spots in the grid over the near 50-year history of the track.
As you will notice with the lineups below, there is a lot more money left in the budgets than I typically leave. That is part of the strategy at this track. With the knowledge that a “big one” always happens, trying to avoid drivers in the middle of the pack and bank of the ones in the back and front saves budget space. The other strategy note is that you can play the same lineup in both GPP and Cash formats this week, more than at other tracks, due to the assumption of wrecks.
This week’s practices were not highly productive or attended sessions for the most part. The second practice saw only 23 drivers complete a lap in the session and 11 cars never made it on to the track. Numerous cars served 15- and 30-minute penalties during the 55-minute time limit, which also reduced the productivity.
DFS Playbook
| Driver | Draft Kings | NASCAR Live | Description |
| Kyle Busch | $10,400 | $27.50 | Kyle has two top-fives and two top-10s in the last four races he's run here with 73 laps lad. An average finish if 11.5 is solid, but he's shown only middling speed this week, starting mid-pack. |
| Joey Logano | $10,200 | $22.50 | Logano is the best driver here recently with two wins and 81 laps led In the last five races. He does have two DNFs but has shown top-10 speed at practice this week. Worth a play in GPPs |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $10,100 | $28.00 | Truex Jr. hasn't won a restrictor plate track yet in 50 tries. He will try a different tactic this week, but hasn't shown great speed here in practice or qualifying. He's a GPP only play, if that. |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,800 | $25.50 | Keselowski has a win, two top-fives, three top-10s, and 167 laps led the five races at Dega. He also has the best driver rating in the field and starts P6. He is a cash or GPP option this week. |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $9,200 | $13.25 | Jr. is the best driver here on the track over his career with six wins, 12 top-fives, and 16 top-10s in 34 races. He's second in laps led (128) with a win in the last four. P1 means cash or GPP play |
| Chase Elliott | $9,000 | $26.25 | Chase will start second again at a restrictor plate track but tends to backup here. He has one top-five in the last three races with 36 laps led. His practice speed was up and down. GPP-only play |
| Kurt Busch | $8,300 | $21.00 | Kurt has the best average finish here over the last five races at P8 and has four top-10s, his worst finish is P12. He ran top-five in both pracitces and starts P4. Hard to pass up for cash lineups |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $8,000 | $20.50 | Stenhouse has won the last two restrictor plate races, one at Daytona, one at Dega. He has a fast car once again this week and is still looking to get through to the Round of 8. Cash or GPP play |
| Paul Menard | $7,000 | $14.00 | Menard has a top-five and three top-10s here in the last five races. He ran as well as P6 in a small-field practice and offers big upside starting P20 on Sunday. Menard is a both format driver |
| Ty Dillon | $6,500 | $17.75 | Dillon has raced here just once, back in May, but finished P13 after starting P28. He starts P25 Sunday but ran P11 in the first practice and stands to do the same type of thing again this time. |
| Aric Almirola | $6,300 | $10.75 | Almirola has driven to a top-five and two top-10s in the last five with four top-20s, one of only six in the field with that stat. He has speed again this week and is a bargain with that upside again |
| David Ragan | $5,800 | $8.25 | Ragan won here in 2013 and has eight top-10s in 21 career races at Dega. In the last five he has just one top-10 however and one top-20. He has speed this week, but inconsistent finishes. GPP |
| Landon Cassill | $5,600 | $5.75 | Cassill has one top-20 in the last five races and has a +5 PD in that span. He has shown solid speed in practice this week and starts P30 on Sunday. His price point makes him a budget-play |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $5,400 | $5.00 | DiBenedetto has two top-20s in recent history and a healthy +7.2 in the position differential category. He will start P32 after running P23 in the only practice he ran laps in. Either works here |
| Cole Whitt | $5,000 | $5.00 | Whitt has an astonishing +20.05 PD in the last three races with three top-20 finishes. That is hard to compete with as one of the cheapest drivers this week. Whitt works for either format |
Optimal Lineups
| Draft Kings Cash | |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $9,200 |
| Kurt Busch | $8,300 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $8,000 |
| Ty Dillon | $6,500 |
| Aric Almirola | $6,300 |
| Cole Whitt | $5,000 |
| Total | $43,300 |
The Cash lineup this week starts with Dale Earnhardt Jr. and follows up with Kurt Busch and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. The three of them are the most-expensive drivers in the lineup but are still mid-tier options budget-wise. Earnhardt Jr. is on the pole, has a phenomenal history here and ran P2 in practice. Busch has the best average finish in the last five years and has 18 top-10s in 33 career races. Stenhouse has won two-straight restrictor plate races including the one in May, and has top-five speed again. Ty Dillon, Aric Almirola, and Cole Whitt finish off the lineup with three budget-plays. Dillon Almirola and Whitt all possess great position differential marks and have the potential to do that again this week.
Pivot: David Ragan ($5,800) in for Aric Almirola or Cole Whitt and Brad Keselowski ($9,800) in for Dale Earnhardt Jr.
| Draft Kings GPP | |
| Joey Logano | $10,200 |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,800 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $9,200 |
| Chase Elliott | $9,000 |
| David Ragan | $5,800 |
| Cole Whitt | $5,000 |
| Total | $49,000 |
The first GPP lineup this week has more top-tier drivers in Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Chase Elliott. The first three of them are the three best drivers on the track in both recent and career stats and Chase is capable of breaking through here, though recent history doesn’t show it. David Ragan and Cole Whitt finish off the six-driver squad as two guys capable of top-20 showings, each has at least one, and have moved through the field well here recently.
| Draft Kings GPP #2 | |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $9,200 |
| Paul Menard | $7,000 |
| Ty Dillon | $6,500 |
| Aric Almirola | $6,300 |
| Landon Cassill | $5,600 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $5,400 |
| Total | $40,000 |
The second GPP also starts with Dale Earnhardt Jr. but the heads further down the salary list for Paul Menard. Menard has three top-10s here in the last five and has big time upside Sunday, especially at this price point. Ty Dillon, Aric Almirola, Landon Cassill, and Matt DiBenedetto finish off the roster with four drivers at $6,500 or less. Cassill a top-20 and a +5 PD in the last five races, along with solid speed this week. DiBenedetto has better stats than Cassill and is cheaper, making him a great choice to finish off the roster of six.
| NASCAR Live | |
| Kurt Busch | $21.00 |
| Ty Dillon | $17.75 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr | $13.25 |
| David Ragan | $8.25 |
| Cole Whitt | $5.00 |
| Bonus Winner | Dale Earnhardt Jr. |
| Bonus Manufacturer | Chevy |
| Total | $65.25 |
| Streak To The Finish | Kurt Busch |