Apache Warrior 400 presented by Lucas Oil

Dover International Speedway

The second leg of the opening round was dominated by two cars all race long. Martin Truex Jr. led 112 of the 300 laps at New Hampshire before a wreck at the end of the second stage shuffled him back a tad in the field. Kyle Busch led all but one of the remaining 188 laps in the race, and really took control after avoiding the smoky wreck mentioned before. Kyle Larson managed to lead just one lap, under caution, for the only other car or manufacturer to run up front at Loudon on Sunday. With the win, Busch clinches a spot in the second round, along with Truex who won at Chicagoland. Larson and Brad Keselowski also clinched spots in the round of 12 with points, leaving eight still up for grabs heading into the final race of the opening round.

“The Magic Mile” played host last week and now it’s on to “The Monster Mile” of Dover International Speedway in Dover, Delaware. Having back-to-back 1-mile tracks means that the track breakdown had similar names near the top of the tables, however that doesn’t mean that all the same drivers are as good here as they were at Loudon.

Dover is a completely different setup with high-banked turns at 24 degrees and straightaways at nine, compared to the nearly flat surface of NHMS. The higher banking means more speed can be carried through the track much more easily, but it also makes passing easier to complete as well.

Looking back at what happened in the June race here may help some, however there are a couple of things that are different. The temps will affect the drivability of track throughout the race and those are different than what they were in June. The other, and more important, thing is that there is a new tire being used at the track this weekend. These same tires were also used at Darlington earlier this year, however that track is asphalt while Dover is concrete. During practice there was an impressive amount of rubber being put down by the cars and thus widening out the lanes of the track. With more lanes to drive in, the more passing can happen.

Eventual winners at Dover have started in the top-five starting grid spots 88% of the time here. That trend has recently been bucked however with eight of the last 12 races at Dover having the winner, and most of the top-fives, came from drivers starting in the teens. That trend suggests that the best chance of scoring well means finding the value plays from drivers staring outside the top-five.

DFS Playbook

DriverDraft KingsNASCAR LiveDescription
Kyle Busch$11,000$27.50Busch has two top-fives and two top-10s in the last five races. He has 147 laps led as well, but he does have two DNFs in that span too. He starts P2 but has run P4, P12, and P5 in practice. GPP
Martin Truex Jr.$11,000$28.00Truex has a win, two top-fives, and four top-10s in the last five here plus 467 laps led. He starts on the pole Sunday but has been iffy speed-wise in practice this week. He slots in in a GPP lineup
Kevin Harvick$10,300$27.25Harvick has a win, two top-fives, and three top-10s with 563 laps led recently. His P5, P1, P3 at practices show consistency and he starts P9. Hard to beat his upside and price for a cash lineup 
Kyle Larson$10,200$27.75Larson has run seven races here in his career but has five top-10s and three top-fives in that span, along with 326 laps led. He starts third after running P2, P6, P4 in practices. Cash or GPP work
Matt Kenseth$9,500$27.00Kenseth is a wild card this week. He ran the fastest in the first practice and qualified P4, but then ran P14 and P20 in the last two pracitces. He is the second-best driver this week, but GPP only
Jimmie Johnson$9,400$23.00JJ is the best driver in the field. He has 11 wins, and three times more laps led, 3,100, than the next closest guy. His speed at practice and starting make a great cash play with GPP upside as well.
Chase Elliott$9,200$25.75Chase has three-straight top-five finishes here and has run P7, P7, P1 at practice. He will start P12 on Sunday and respresents a great PD play if the speed holds true. Price is hard to beat too
Jamie McMurray$8,100$26.25Jamie Mac has a top-five and three top-10s in the last five races here and ran P14, P4, P6 in practice this week. His starting spot of P26 is just what we're looking for for a PD upside play in both
Kasey Kahne$7,700$13.50Kahne has two top-fives and three top-10s in the last five tries here. His 8.6 average finish in third in the field while he has also posted a +9.4 PD. He ran as fast as P8 whle qualifying P21. GPP
Ryan Newman$7,200$23.75Newman only has one top-five and top-10 in the last five races here but is third in the field with three career wins. His 849 laps led is fifth in the field over his career. He's only a GPP Sunday
Daniel Suarez$6,900$22.75Suarez has raced here just once in the MENCS but in Xfinity this is his best track. He finished P6 in June here but has a win, two top-fives, and four top-10s in five Xfinity races. He starts P5
Danica Patrick$6,100$12.75Danica owns the best positional differential in the field at +11.2 over the last five races. She has also finished in the top-10 in that span as well. The combo of the two is a big upside at this price
Aric Almirola$5,800$11.75Almirola maybe the sleeper of the week at Dover. He has two top-fives and two-10s in the last four races run, he missed June's race. He starts P14 but didn't run that fast at practice, GPP play
David Ragan$5,200$7.75Ragan will start P28 on Sunday but ran P17, P20, P21 in the three practices. Ragan has a 13th-place finish in the last five races with a +5 PD too. He is a budget-friendly play for either format
Ross Chastain$4,700$5.00Chastain raced here in June and moved up an astouding 16 places. In eight races between Xfinity and NCWTS he has six top-20 finishes to go with the one in MENCS. He's a cheap upside play

Optimal Lineups

Draft Kings Cash 
Kevin Harvick$10,300
Kyle Larson$10,200
Jimmie Johnson$9,400
Chase Elliott$9,200
David Ragan$5,200
Ross Chastain$4,700
  
Total$49,000

The cash lineup this week avoids the top-two expensive drivers and starts with Kevin Harvick and Kyle Larson instead. Harvick and Larson have been the most-consistent drivers in practice this week and both have great histories here recently and have led 889 combined laps in the last 12 races here. Jimmie Johnson and Chase Elliott follow from the $9,000 range. Johnson is the best driver in history at Dover and has run P2 and P3 in two practices this week while starting P19. Elliott has three-straight top-fives and led the last practice along with the best 10-lap averages and 15-lap averages. David Ragan and Ross Chastain finish off the lineup with two budget-friendly plays that possess a chance to provide two top-20 finishers based on history and speed shown.

Draft Kings GPP 
Kyle Busch$11,000
Martin Truex Jr.$11,000
Kyle Larson$10,200
Danica Patrick$6,100
Aric Almirola$5,800
Ross Chastain$4,700
  
Total$48,800

The first GPP lineup starts with Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr., and Kyle Larson. Yes they are the top-three qualifiers in the starting grid but all have been dominant this season and have shown top-five speed much of the weekend. We are going for a laps led dominator out of those three. The three combined have a win, seven top-fives, and 10 top-10s in the last five races. Danica Patrick, Aric Almirola, and Ross Chastain finish off the lineup with three budget-plays. Danica has the best position differential in the field at +11.2 and has a top-10 in the last five races. Almirola has two top-fives and two top-10s in the last five races and will start P14, making him a candidate again for that type of finish. Chastain raced here in June, finishing 20th after starting 36th. In eight truck and Xfinity races he has six top-20s.

PIVOT: Ryan Newman ($7,200) in for Danica Patrick. Newman has just one top-five in the last five races but has a very good history outside of that. He also needs a win to move on to the Round of 12 and has shown decent speed this week.

Draft Kings GPP #2 
Martin Truex Jr.$11,000
Jimmie Johnson$9,400
Jamie McMurray$8,100
Kasey Kahne$7,700
Daniel Suarez$6,900
Aric Almirola$5,800
  
Total$48,900

The second GPP starts with the pole sitter in Martin Truex Jr., who does have a win, two top-fives, and four top-10s in the last five races. The issue is his speed has been iffy this week. Jimmie Johnson makes the GPP lineup for the upside he offers starting 19th and running P3, P12, and P2 in practice. Jamie McMurray and Kasey Kahne are the next two up in the roster. Jamie Mac has a top-five and three top-10s in the last five and has run much faster in practice than his qualifying spot, which gives him massive upside. Kahne is in a win-or-go-home position this week and showed top-10 speed in the last practice after qualifying P21. His history at the track provides the upside to the selection. Daniel Suarez is the fifth driver in the lineup after running top-10 in most practices and qualifying P5. In his five races at the Xfinity series he has a win and four top-10s and 142 laps led, making it his best track. Aric Almirola finishes off the six-driver set as a below-$6,000 play that could get a top-eight finish if things break his way.

NASCAR Live 
Martin Truex Jr.$28.00
Kevin Harvick$27.25
Jimmie Johnson$23.00
Kasey Kahne$13.50
Ross Chastain$5.00
Bonus WinnerChase Elliott
Bonus ManufacturerChevrolet
  
Total$96.75

 

Streak To The FinishChase Elliott