From “The Magic Mile” last week to “The Monster Mile” this week, and the final race in the first round of the Chase playoffs. Back-to-back mile-long tracks means similar guys will show up at the top of the data tables, however they are two entirely different tracks. High-banked turns at Dover International Speedway keep the speeds up while the flat track at Loudon reduced speeds and kept passing, to a degree, to a minimum. There are nine drivers in the field this week with a +6 position differential and despite the eventual winner coming from the top-five starting spots 88% of the time here, that’s only happened once in the last five races.
Track Data
| Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Avg. | Difference | Laps Led | Laps Led | ||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | Top 20s | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
| Jimmie Johnson | 12.4 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 124 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 0 | 102.6 | -2.6 | 31 | 6.20 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 4.4 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 467 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 121.2 | -1.6 | 116.75 | 23.35 |
| Kevin Harvick | 9.2 | 12.8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 563 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 0 | 110 | -3.6 | 140.75 | 28.15 |
| Matt Kenseth | 4.6 | 12.8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 74 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 1 | 109.5 | -8.2 | 18.5 | 3.70 |
| Kyle Larson | 12.4 | 8.2 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 326 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 102.3 | 4.2 | 81.5 | 16.30 |
| Chase Elliott | 12.7 | 3.67 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 100.2 | 9.03 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Kasey Kahne | 18 | 8.6 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 88.9 | 9.4 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Kyle Busch | 6 | 17.2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 147 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 2 | 104.2 | -11.2 | 36.75 | 7.35 |
| Aric Almirola | 20.8 | 14.25 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 31 | 1 | 76 | 6.55 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Jamie McMurray | 15.6 | 15.8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 40 | 1 | 80 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.10 |
| Brad Keselowski | 10 | 15.2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 84 | 0 | 4 | 38 | 1 | 83.9 | -5.2 | 21 | 4.20 |
| Ryan Newman | 12.6 | 14.8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 77.6 | -2.2 | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 10.3 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 32 | 1 | 85.6 | -4.7 | 0.75 | 0.19 |
| Kurt Busch | 9.2 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 1 | 84.6 | -11.8 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Denny Hamlin | 5.2 | 12.6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 133 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 92.7 | -7.4 | 33.25 | 6.65 |
| Joey Logano | 12.4 | 14.8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 92.1 | -2.4 | 0.5 | 0.10 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 15 | 21.8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 39 | 1 | 64.3 | -6.8 | 0.75 | 0.15 |
| Clint Bowyer | 23.6 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 31 | 0 | 73.1 | 5.6 | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| Danica Patrick | 28.6 | 17.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 28 | 0 | 58.1 | 11.2 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Paul Menard | 20 | 19.8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 33 | 1 | 68.1 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Austin Dillon | 13.6 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 33 | 0 | 75.1 | -8.4 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Trevor Bayne | 25 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 43 | 1 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Suarez | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 94.1 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ryan Blaney | 17.7 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 38 | 0 | 75.5 | -8.3 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Michael McDowell | 28 | 19.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 20 | 0 | 51.5 | 8.5 | 1 | 0.50 |
| David Ragan | 27 | 22.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 30 | 1 | 53.5 | 4.6 | 0 | 0.00 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 23.4 | 22.6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 29 | 1 | 60 | 0.8 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ty Dillon | 25.5 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 14 | 32 | 0 | 59.6 | 2.5 | 6.75 | 3.38 |
| Erik Jones | 7 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 | 1 | 96 | -8 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Chris Buescher | 25 | 21.33 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 23 | 0 | 54.9 | 3.67 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Landon Cassill | 33.8 | 29.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 40 | 2 | 43.3 | 4.4 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ross Chastain | 36 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 45.6 | 16 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Cole Whitt | 34.8 | 25.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 28 | 2 | 42.9 | 9.05 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Gray Gaulding | 32 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 40.7 | 8 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 32.4 | 32.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 40 | 1 | 37.4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | 38.7 | 32.67 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 36 | 0 | 29.9 | 6.03 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Timmy Hill | 38.7 | 33.67 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 39 | 0 | 31.1 | 5.03 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Reed Sorenson | 39 | 35.33 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 38 | 1 | 31 | 3.67 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Cody Ware | 38 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 35 | 1 | 27.8 | 3 | 0 | 0.00 |
Top-15 Drivers at Dover International Speedway Historically
| Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Difference | Laps Led | Laps Led | ||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | Top 20s | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
| Jimmie Johnson | 10.3 | 9.26 | 31 | 11 | 16 | 22 | 27 | 3,100 | 3 | 1 | 41 | 2 | 1.04 | 775 | 25.00 |
| Matt Kenseth | 13.9 | 12.78 | 37 | 3 | 17 | 24 | 28 | 904 | 1 | 1 | 40 | 6 | 1.12 | 226 | 6.11 |
| Ryan Newman | 10.1 | 13.65 | 31 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 23 | 849 | 4 | 1 | 36 | 2 | -3.55 | 212.25 | 6.85 |
| Kyle Busch | 10 | 14.76 | 25 | 2 | 11 | 15 | 17 | 1,158 | 1 | 1 | 43 | 6 | -4.76 | 289.5 | 11.58 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 12.1 | 13.7 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 17 | 694 | 2 | 1 | 38 | 2 | -1.6 | 173.5 | 7.54 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 14.3 | 16.06 | 34 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 21 | 451 | 1 | 1 | 37 | 2 | -1.76 | 112.75 | 3.32 |
| Kurt Busch | 11.5 | 18.62 | 34 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 426 | 0 | 1 | 42 | 7 | -7.12 | 106.5 | 3.13 |
| Kevin Harvick | 17 | 14.82 | 33 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 26 | 955 | 1 | 1 | 38 | 1 | 2.18 | 238.75 | 7.23 |
| Brad Keselowski | 11.3 | 13.87 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 181 | 1 | 1 | 38 | 1 | -2.57 | 45.25 | 3.02 |
| Joey Logano | 13.7 | 14.12 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 42 | 1 | -0.42 | 0.75 | 0.04 |
| Denny Hamlin | 10.8 | 17.74 | 23 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 276 | 3 | 4 | 43 | 3 | -6.94 | 69 | 3.00 |
| Kasey Kahne | 14 | 18.63 | 27 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 90 | 0 | 4 | 42 | 7 | -4.63 | 22.5 | 0.83 |
| Kyle Larson | 10.6 | 8.29 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 326 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 2.31 | 81.5 | 11.64 |
| Chase Elliott | 12.7 | 3.67 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 9.03 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Clint Bowyer | 18.3 | 13.22 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 19 | 42 | 0 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 5.08 | 10.5 | 0.46 |
Top-15 Drivers at 1-mile Tracks (since February 2015)
| Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Difference | Laps Led | Laps Led | |||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | Top 20s | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
| Kevin Harvick | 10.1 | 9.25 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 1,352 | 1 | 1 | 37 | 1 | 114.4 | 0.85 | 338 | 21.13 |
| Matt Kenseth | 7.7 | 10.8 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 303 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 2 | 108.1 | -3.1 | 75.75 | 5.05 |
| Kyle Busch | 7.5 | 10.73 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 851 | 3 | 1 | 37 | 2 | 113.9 | -3.23 | 212.75 | 14.18 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 9.4 | 13.81 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 182 | 2 | 1 | 41 | 0 | 98.6 | -4.41 | 45.5 | 2.84 |
| Joey Logano | 10.9 | 12.69 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 189 | 1 | 1 | 37 | 1 | 95.9 | -1.79 | 47.25 | 2.95 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 9.6 | 10.44 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 980 | 1 | 1 | 40 | 1 | 108.3 | -0.84 | 245 | 15.31 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 12.7 | 17.08 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 69 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 2 | 88.9 | -4.38 | 17.25 | 1.44 |
| Denny Hamlin | 7.8 | 10.44 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 217 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 96.2 | -2.64 | 54.25 | 3.39 |
| Ryan Newman | 15.8 | 14.25 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 1 | 78.8 | 1.55 | 1.75 | 0.11 |
| Kyle Larson | 11.3 | 10.5 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 331 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 95.5 | 0.8 | 82.75 | 5.17 |
| Brad Keselowski | 10.6 | 11.56 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 247 | 0 | 2 | 38 | 1 | 97 | -0.96 | 61.75 | 3.86 |
| Kurt Busch | 7.8 | 15.88 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 2 | 89.7 | -8.08 | 0.25 | 0.02 |
| Kasey Kahne | 13.1 | 15.81 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 35 | 1 | 83.6 | -2.71 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Chase Elliott | 10.7 | 10.9 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 107 | 0 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 98.6 | -0.2 | 26.75 | 2.68 |
| Jamie McMurray | 12.1 | 14.75 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 1 | 84.8 | -2.65 | 0.75 | 0.05 |
Drivers to watch this week:
Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is unquestionably the best driver on the track this week at Dover. In the last five races he has two wins, including in June, with three top-10s and 124 laps led. However if that’s not enough, his career, over 31 races, has seen him win 11 races with 16 top-fives, 22 top-10s, and 3,100 laps led (nearly three times more than the next closest driver). Johnson is sitting seventh in the Chase standings at the moment and is safe for the next round, assuming he doesn’t crash out, but getting his mojo going again could really take a turn this week.
Martin Truex Jr.: Truex is tied with Kyle Busch for the most expensive drivers this week at $11,000. In the last five races here, MTJ has a win, two top-fives, and four top-10s with an average finish of P6. He has also led 467 laps in that span, which is the majority of his 694 laps led overall in his career at Dover. While Busch has better career stats, his recent stats aren’t as good as Truex’s, which is why I have focused on him instead of Busch in this section..jpg)
Kasey Kahne: Kahne is in an all or nothing situation coming into Sunday. The current driver of the 5-car sits last in the standings and needs a win, and only a win, to move on to the round of 12. The good news for Kahne is that he has shown well here recently with two top-fives and three top-10s in the last five races. On average he starts 18th and finishes 8.6 with a high finish of P4. Kahne hasn’t looked great much of this season, including the win in the demolition derby that was Indianapolis, but with everything on the line and his time at Hendrick quickly coming to an end he could make a great run on Sunday.
Chase Elliott: Elliott, like Johnson, appears safe right now for the round of 12, sitting in ninth. Though a crash or a bad run can change that. In his three races at Dover he has posted one of the best positional differentials in the field at +9.03 while finishing between P3 and P5. There are no laps led here but the three-straight top-fives make him and Kyle Larson the only two drivers with three top-fives in the last five races. That consistency is hard to look past.
Danica Patrick: Danica doesn’t make this section often but when she does it’s for good reason. In the last five races at Dover, she has posted the best positional differential in the field at +11.2 and has a top-10 and three top-20s in that span. She isn’t in the Chase but does have her future in the sport to run for, as she doesn’t have a ride for next season yet. A similar drive to what she had in the June race, where she went from P31 to P10, could go a long way, not only for lineups in DFS, but also for her career.