A couple of weeks into the season is now a good time to touch base with some of the pitching prospects down on the farm and see if they are still in line to make an impact on their respective major league teams, or your fantasy team(s) for that matter. Looking at advanced stats is more helpful than the standard numbers when looking at pitching prospects, given the general lack of solid defense behind them at the minor league level.
International League
Everyone’s heard of the Twins’ Jose Berrios (RHP) but it’s likely that you stopped following him after his up and down season a year ago. In his first two starts at Rochester this season, he’s posted a 0.00 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, 1-0 W-L record, and a 13:1 K:BB ratio in 14 innings. Even his 1.89 FIP demonstrates just how nasty his stuff can be. It’s only a matter of time before the 22-year-old figures out major league hitters too, which would be a welcomed relief for the pitching-deprived Twins who hope Berrios can be the ace of their staff in short order.
Tampa’s Chih-Wei Hu (RHP) saw a touch of Triple-A Durham last season, 4 2/3 innings, but is starting there to begin this season. In two starts he has a 1.64 ERA over 11 innings along with a 9:1 K:BB ratio. A 4.53 FIP illustrates that all is not what it seems to be with him, as does his .258 BABIP against, though that’s not terrible. Tampa is known to be very patient on pitchers and with Brent Honeywell and Jose De Leon likely to crack the rotation first; he is a stash in dynasty leagues as he works on his tertiary offerings down on the farm.
The blockbuster deal this offseason between the Nats and Pale Hose that sent Adam Eaton to D.C. for a pair of pitching prospects in Reynaldo Lopez (RHP) and Lucas Giolito (RHP) is starting to show in the stat lines. Both pitchers are off to horrendous starts in their first two outings with the former posting a 5.02 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and 5.65 BB/9 in 14 innings, while the latter is worse at a 7.56 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and a .281 AVG against in 8 1/3 innings. Lopez’s FIP puts him more in the mid-six range, which shouldn’t be surprising with a 2.51 HR/9 in tow as well. Giolito appears to still be trying to regain his confidence from being shellacked at the major league level last year in Washington, but giving up a .333 BABIP and a 6.48 BB/9 rate isn’t going to get it back very quickly, if at all.
Pacific Coast League
The Rockies acquired Jeff Hoffman (RHP) from Toronto in the Tulo deal a few year’s back. Now he’s at Triple-A Albuquerque for the second season. His 4.80 ERA and 1.33 WHIP are respectable given the hitting talent of the PCL. Hoffman’s 3.98 FIP, 7.20 K/9 rate and amazing 4.8% HR/FB rate all show that the 24-year-old righty is pitching better than maybe the standard numbers indicate. Sink, late life, and velocity are a great combination for a pitcher to have heading into Coors Field and his 92-95 mph fastball offering has just combination. He got a taste of the majors last season and could very well be up again come mid-season this year.
The Brewers’ Josh Hader (LHP) has emerged as the games’ top-ranked lefty prospect after a dominant 2015 and 2016. He is back at Triple-A Colorado Springs trying to pick up where he left off last season, and on the surface he’s doing that. A 2.57 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 11 Ks in 14 innings look good right? But how about a 7.09 FIP, 7.07 BB/9 rate, and a 1.93 HR/9 rate? There are more confounding stats as well, a .156 BAA and a .129 BABIP against indicate that he’s really only giving up home runs. If he can cut the home run rate, his power fastball and devastating slider combo should be more than enough to get him to Miller Park later this season.
Seattle acquired 23-year-old righty Chase De Jong (RHP) in a trade with L.A. in the offseason. In two starts this year for Tacoma he has posted a 1.74 ERA, 5.55 FIP, 1.16 WHIP, a 2-0 W-L record and 10 Ks in 10 1/3 innings pitched. Despite having what some consider average stuff, he continues to put up very consistent numbers across the levels on the farm. Pitching nearly a full year at Double-A Tulsa for L.A., he posted a 2.86 ERA, 3.68 FIP and a 7.94 K/9 rate. De Jong’s delivery elevates his offerings to look better than they may be and can be deceptive enough to miss bats.
Eric Skoglund (LHP) is one of those tall (6’7”) lanky (200 lb.) pitchers who the Royals hope turns out to be a very solid addition to their rotation. He is a fastball-changeup guy offering a 91-95 mph heater that has helped him to a 2.79 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in his first two starts. As if his ERA needed any more help, his superb 1.97 FIP does just that. There are a few downsides to mention. Skoglund has only pitched more than 100 innings once in four years in the minors and his ground-ball rate has hovered around 45% in the two years he pitched more than 80 innings. His stuff will need to improve to make it to the majors this season.
Tyler Beede (RHP) is San Francisco’s best pitching prospect and is getting his first taste of Triple-A this season with Sacramento. His four-pitch mix of a fastball, cutter, curve, and change has seen him through the previous levels well, but are struggling a bit in the PCL. A 6.40 ERA, 4.82 FIP, 1.40 WHIP and a 6:4 K:BB ratio in 10 innings is not the start he wanted. Lucky for him, the Giants have a full rotation, giving him time to get his numbers down.