Unlike the Cup drivers, the Truck series isn’t necessarily as unknown to dirt as they’ve been racing once a year at Eldora since 2013. They didn’t race there in 2020, but there were still seven-straight years of racing on dirt in the Trucks for most of the veterans of the series.

That being said though, Eldora is still a different style track in that even though it’s a half-mile just like Bristol, it’s flat and it’s much wider. That will make a big difference for Saturday night’s race as the narrower racing surface and the banking will mean that passing is tougher and there won’t be nearly as many grooves throughout the race as there typically are at Eldora. The reason that Eldora comes up as a comparable track, aside from the racing surface, is that they raced the same trucks they’ll be racing on Saturday at the Big E rather than Sprint cars or open-wheel cars that are far lighter than a Truck series truck.

So with this being a new track and one without history being used as a dirt track and not a lot of dirt experience in the full-time drivers on the surface either, we’re going to rely on gut feel and what we saw from the drivers at practice on Friday as well as what we see in the heat races, though to a lesser extent. Drivers that were able to put down consistent track times at practice, especially the second one as the track was already worn-down and dry slick and the ones who are going to make hay late in the runs and be able to pass and move up when others are struggling to keep pace. The other reason it’s important is because of the style of race that’s happening this week specifically to do with the pit procedures in place. The trucks can be serviced in-between stages and that’s it, no competitive pit stops or green flag pit stops on Saturday night for safety reasons and so the drivers that can be consistent and protect their tires, while still making speed, are the ones we want in the lineups.

Laps led will be a factor on Saturday as we can treat this similarly to a short track, though fewer laps than a standard short track race, and while position differential will be possible, track position will likely be key as well and drivers will still be being lapped decently quickly here, just as normal at Bristol. Playing lightly this week is recommended as anything can really happen even with the most experienced dirt racers in the field.

The playbook has been updated to reflect the official starting order and lineup. If any more news affects the plays it will be updated till lineup lock at 9 pm ET Sunday.

Playbook

Kyle Larson - $11,500

Do we really need to go over his dirt racing bona fides? Larson did after all win 46 races on the surface just last year and did win at Eldora a few years ago in a truck. He may not have had a very confidence-boosting practice session Friday in the truck in the early session, but the second one was better and his 15-lap average was second-best in the field. He’s starting P28 on Sunday night so expect him to be the most popular play as he’s actually cheaper here than in the Cup race and now doesn’t need to lead laps to hit value as PD can take care of that for him.

Chase Briscoe - $11,000

Briscoe grew up wishing to be the next Tony Stewart and now that he drives for him in the Cup series he’s on his way, but that also includes his dirt track history as well. Briscoe grew up driving Sprint cars and midgets in Indiana. Racing at Eldora he’s had a very good history and while he never ran long runs on Friday, he did post the fourth-fastest times in each practice with the second practice time coming on the 18th lap, indicating he’s good at keeping up speed with more laps on the tires. He’ll be starting P33 and that will perhaps make him chalkier than Larson for the added PD and cheaper price while still being just as good on the surface as Larson as well.

Stewart Friesen - $10,500

Friesen has a long history on dirt and has run well on it to boot. The shorter run speed was very good for Friesen and the only time he ran at least 10-consecutive laps was in the second practice when he ranked 23rd. He knows they have work to do and they can make those changes this weekend with practice and no impound on the trucks. Friesen will be rolling off in P7 on Sunday night so let’s bet on his history in trucks on dirt and in plenty of other cars on the surface too to make the adjustments needed to be a threat throughout the night.

Sheldon Creed - $10,000

Creed is a driver who has made strides on dirt throughout his career and in fact, has done well at Eldora in the past. Now, this weekend the truck looks like it’s a possible top-10 truck, at least in pure speed based on long-run speeds in practice. The driving style here does also fit Creed’s slightly aggressive nature and luckily for him, bouncing off the wall here isn’t exactly a night ender at these speeds. Starting P3 could have him consistently running up front and holding the spot well but to hit value he’d need some fastest laps or laps led while also finishing in the top-five so his value has taken a bit of a hit without the qualifying heats happening.

Bubba Wallace - $9,700

Wallace has won at Eldora in the past and got twice as much practice on Friday since he’s also in the Cup car and he showed middle-of-the-pack speed in Truck practice but looked comfier in the second session. Starting toward the back of the field, he will have nice PD upside but the starting spot is risky if he doesn’t move up quickly since it’s still a short track and getting lapped is still possible.

John Hunter Nemechek - $8,900

Nemechek is on the pole for the Truck race now that the qualifying was set by the formula. At practice, he ran inside the top-12 spots in long-run speed including top-five in the first session. He wasn’t originally on my list to play because he’s on baby watch but at this point, it appears that he’ll be starting the race and thus he’ll get the points for DFS, and oh yeah, his replacement is Christopher Bell. We need him to lead laps to solidify value since he can only move backward but the truck was a top-10 machine all-day Friday and Nemechek has run a bit of dirt before.

Austin Hill - $8,700

Hill hasn’t exactly posted the best history on dirt in his prior racing career including two finishes outside the top-20 at Eldora. However, that being said, the 16-Truck has looked good this weekend with two top-11 10-lap average runs at practice and those came later in the runs for him as they were at least 14 laps into his runs, indicating he’s good with upkeep on the tires and speed into a run. Let’s also not forget that Hill has topped 50-DK points in both of the last two races and now starting P2 on Sunday he’ll be in a spot to lead early laps.

Matt Crafton - $8,600

Crafton, the veteran of not only Truck racing but also racing dirt on the side, has never finished outside the top-10 at Eldora in his six races there including a win. The time spent at this discipline paid off at practice on Friday as he looked quite racy in the final practice after the track had been beaten up quite a bit. He ranked third in the 10-lap average in the second session and his single-lap speed was improved over the first session as well showing the team made the right adjustments. At this price point, starting P4 should give him room for error in order to hit value.

Ben Rhodes - $8,300

Rhodes showed very well in the second session of practice on Friday as he got better in long-run and short-run speed on a beat up track which shows he might be a factor in the second half of the race. Rhodes has been a hit-and-miss play this year in the past four races and his points in each race have dropped from 71 down to 16 last time out. That should mean fewer people play him, but there is the inherent risk that comes with a guy on a down streak as well. Starting P9 makes him an interesting play at this price only needing 41.5 points to hit value, though that could still be a reach for him given what I just said.

Tyler Ankrum - $7,500

Ankrum has been a bit of a yo-yo driver this year in that he’s moved up well in a couple of races and moved backward quite a bit in the others. His speeds in the truck practice were decent and did come later in the runs showing that he’s able to manage the tires well. With the improvements we saw from one practice to the next in terms of how he looked on the track and the feedback he was giving to the team, he’s put himself in the conversation for a lower-played riskier option that could surprise folks with his showing.

Todd Gilliland - $7,200

Above I mentioned that drivers that were able to put down consistent lap times over the long run in practice and especially later in the runs are guys we want to look at for our builds. Well, Gilliland did just that as his 10-lap averages came well into his runs and he had consistent times in both practices which should be a shock given his prior USAC experiences. Gilliland is in a great spot value-wise at this price with only needing 36 points to hit value, which seems fairly achievable based on what we saw from him and his equipment on Friday.

Mike Marlar - $6,900

Marlar is a “dirt ringer” of sorts and is in both the Truck and Cup races because of his experience on the dirt. When we get ringers in the field it’s usually not a bad idea to get them into at least a few lineups and at this price point, that’s more than reasonable to do. He’s also starting P38 on Sunday night and ran as fast as 22nd in the final practice in 10-lap average. One of the last times he was in a truck he finished P3 at Eldora in subpar equipment but Marlar is likely to be a popular cheaper play because of his history on dirt.

Raphael Lessard - $6,600

Who says you need dirt experience to put on a show on a dirt track? Lessard ran very well in the second practice and was another driver that made big leaps in performance in the short period of time on the track on Friday. Lessard will likely be a guy that not a whole lot of players are on since he’s finished worse than he’s started in each race to this point this year but hey on the dirt track anything is possible and so he’s worth a shot as a low-played GPP option especially starting P29.

Chandler Smith - $6,300

Smith is a guy with a nice amount of short track experience having been restricted to running them in the national series due to age restrictions and that has given him a knowledge base of how to make tires last on long runs even if he doesn’t have the dirt experience others do. Smith laid down some good times in the first session but then got faster in the second session when he ran the second-best 10-lap average. He might be a popular cheap play if dipping this far down to finish off builds.

Tanner Gray - $6,100

Gray does have some dirt track experience having raced in the Outlaws Karts in North Carolina but it’s more his showings on Friday that raised his profile. He ran top-12 in long-run speed in both practices and had good short-run speed too. The fact that the surface didn’t cost him speed, and in fact, he was a touch faster in the second session is a good sign for him to be able to keep progressing through the field, or hold his spot, late in a run. Rolling off P18 still gives him nice PD upside if the top-12 speed shows up and moving up a handful of spots should give him value at this price.

Chase Purdy - $6,000

Was there anyone who was as forthright about having fun as Purdy was when he got out of the truck in the first practice? He flat out said NASCAR should do this every year. His times showed he was having fun too as he was quick in the first session and then slightly slower in the second but still put up solid lap averages even over a 20-lap run and his tires didn’t really fall off that much either. Purdy hasn’t had much if any, dirt history to rely on prior to this weekend having come through the ARCA ranks and not racing at Eldora previously either. Like some others that are down this far in the salary range, we’ll have to hope that his speed keeps up as the track starts to wear and become dry slick.

Carson Hocevar - $5,800

For a guy with no dirt experience prior to Friday, he certainly didn’t let them stop him from putting up great times. He ran top-five in the first practice but then dropped to 20th in the second practice in 10-lap average but was fifth in 15-lap average, though in a smaller subset of the field. At this price point, it won’t be hard to hit value regardless of where he’s starting unless he drops backward significantly. He may not get a lot of attention in this range either with his lack of experience and Deegan in this price range too.

Hailie Deegan - $5,500

Deegan grew up in a dirt background, granted it was off-road on stadium courses but they were trucks. She’s said that her experience in that realm has helped with the transition to this race weekend and it showed early in the first practice when she ran a top-three single-lap time and a top-two 10-lap average in that practice too, though those were both when the dirt was fresh and the track wasn’t worn in. In the second practice, she was a tad slower which is a concern that she may not be able to keep pace later in the race but they could’ve still made adjustments since practice. She’s still slightly riskier than the experience might lead on.