MLB DFS Write-Up & Example Lineups: October 5

Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees

Randy Dobnak (2-1, 1.59 ERA) vs Masahiro Tanaka (11-9, 4.45 ERA)

Yankee Stadium

Yankees -185, o/u 9.5

Regular Season Series: Yankees 4-2

The Yankees took Game 1 of this series yesterday with a 10-4 thumping. The two teams combined for five home runs and neither starting pitcher lasted longer than 4.2 innings. We can probably expect a few more offensive games in this series as neither team has a great pitching staff and both boast strong offenses.

Pitching

Twins

Minnesota will send their rookie right-hander to the mound in Game 2. Dobnak only logged 28.1 innings in the bigs this year, but he was impressive, pitching to a 1.59 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. In his final start in the regular season he gave up just one hit while striking out six over six innings of work against Detroit. Lefties hit just .175 against him this year, while righties hit .321. Keep in mind though that it’s a small sample. He will have his hands full with the Yankees, who ranked third in the league in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Dobnak did not face the Yankees in the regular season.

Yankees

Tanaka will take the ball in Game 2 for New York. He struggled this year, pitching to a 4.45 ERA and the worst WHIP (1.24) and BAA (.261) of his career. He was okay against righties, giving up a slash line of .237/.270/.393, but he really struggled with lefties as they slashed .285/.331/.508 against him. A big factor into why the Yankees wanted to pitch Tanaka in Game 2 is probably because he had a 3.10 home ERA this year, compared to 6.05 on the road. He will face a Twins lineup that ranked fifth in wOBA and fourth in wRC+ against righties this year. Tanaka did not face the Twins in the regular season.

Hitting

Twins

Minnesota’s offense was among the best in recent baseball history as they finished first in home runs, second in batting average, second in wOBA & first in ISO this season. If wanting to attack Tanaka with lefties, we can look at Polanco, Kepler, and Rosario. Polanco was much stronger against righties, slashing .306/.378/.513 against them with 16 of his 22 home runs. Rosario had a pretty even split batting average wise, but 27 of his 32 home runs were against a righty. Kepler hit nearly .060 points worse against righties, but he did hit 27 of his 36 dingers against them. Cruz and Sano are also interesting as both guys hit over 20 home runs against righties and had SLGs north of .500.

Yankees

Dobnak’s lack of success against righties could prove to be a big issue in this one, as the entire Yankees lineup hits right-handed, outside of Gregorius and Gardner. The only Yankee with a big reverse platoon split was Sanchez, who slashed .243/.322/.545 against righties with 27 of his 34 home runs, compared to .200/.296/.463 against lefties. While the other bats hit for a lower average against righties than they did lefties, they all still hit for power; Judge had 19 of his 27 home runs off righties, Edwin hit 23 of 34 against righties, and Torres hit 29 of 38 against righties.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros

Blake Snell (6-8, 4.29 ERA) vs Gerrit Cole (20-5, 2.50 ERA)

Minute Maid Park

Astros -320, o/u 7.5

Regular Season Series: Rays 4-3

The Astros took Game 1 of this series behind a brilliant outing from Verlander in which he tossed seven shutout innings. The final score was 6-2. Altuve had the only home run that was hit and only two players had multiple hits in the game (Brantley and Gurriel). Today’s game features more strong pitching and an outcome similar to yesterday seems plausible.

Pitching

Rays

Last year’s AL Cy Young Award winner will take the ball in Game 2 for the Rays as they turn to Blake Snell . While Snell’s ERA this year was far worse than his mark last year (1.89), his FIP was actually pretty similar, as it came in at 3.32, compared to last year’s mark of 2.94. He had reverse platoon splits this season as lefties slashed .329/.365/.529 against him, compared to the .222/.300/.362 mark that righties posted. The Astros had the lowest strikeout rate in baseball against left-handed pitching this season. It is important to keep in mind that Snell did not pitch more than 2.1 innings in any of his September starts and maxed out at 62 pitches. Snell only pitched against the Astros one time this season and it did not go well, giving up five runs across six innings of work while only striking out three.

Astros

If Gerrit Cole doesn’t win the AL Cy Young Award this year it’s only because his teammate did. Cole pitched to a 2.50 ERA this season, a 2.64 FIP, and he struck out an MLB-best 326 batters. He went 16-0 with a 1.78 ERA across his final 22 starts and had 226 strikeouts in that span. You can see why the Astros are heavy favorites today. Cole was dominant against both sides of the dish as both righties and lefties hit under .200 against him. Cole pitched against the Rays twice this season, giving up five runs across 12.2 innings of work while striking out a ridiculous 24 hitters.

Hitting

Rays

The Rays were 13^th in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. It’s tough to like any Rays bats today in this matchup, but I guess if you were looking for one thing it would be that lefties hit for more power against Cole, hitting 17 of the 29 home runs he gave up. I am completely out on any Rays that hit righty (outside of Pham, more on that in a bit), which leaves us looking at Meadows, Lowe, Choi, and Kiermaier. Meadows slashed .298/.384/.576 against righties with 24 of his 33 home runs, but he is 0-6 against Cole. Lowe slashed .278/.355/.543 against righties this year with 14 of his 17 home runs. Choi slashed .274/.377/.492 against righties with 17 of his 19 home runs and he went 3-5 with a dinger against Cole. Kiermaier has reverse platoon splits and hit under .200 against righties this season. I mentioned that I don’t like righties, but Pham is 9-18 with a dinger against Cole in his career and we can’t ignore that.

Astros

The Astros were number one in both wOBA and wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season. Altuve, Bregman, Correa, and Alvarez all hit at least .300 with a SLG north of .500 against lefties this season. They would be my main targets in this one, especially Alvarez, given Snell’s reverse splits this season. Bregman is 5-13 with a home run in his career against Snell. Altuve is 4-13 with THREE home runs against Snell. Springer and Brantley are also worth consideration. Springer is 4-11 with a HR against Snell and Brantley is 4-6 with a dinger. Snell will have his hands full with this lineup and it would not be surprising to see him get chased out of the game early in this one.

Summary and Lineups

Cole is the chalk SP1 today and he’s the one guy that you can feel really comfortable with starting. Snell is the second best pitcher on the slate, but he faces a lineup that torches left-handed pitching and he hasn’t been himself lately. The Yankees/Twins game looks like it could turn into a slugfest, but I think if Dobnak can keep the ball in the ballpark (a big if), he could put together a decent outing. I would expect everyone not named Cole to have a very short leash today. I would think the chalk offense today would be the Yankees, but I actually like the Twins the most today. On SuperDraft I think a lot of people will chase that 1.9x multiplier for Snell, but that may end up hurting him more than helping him honestly.