Welcome back to another edition of the Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch. We have a few interesting names to look at this week, including a few rookies. We have a few players who had rough starts to the year, but have been playing well recently and are now stock risers; while one of our fallers is a player that got off to a blazing hot start. That’s the great thing about fantasy, things change all the time, and we constantly have to stay on top of everything. Without further ado, let’s dive in!
Stock up
José Leclerc , RP TEX – With Kelley landing on IL, Leclerc is expected to return to a closing role for Texas, at least for the time being. Leclerc got off to a rough start to begin the year, which led to his removal from the closing role, but he has been pitching much better since and with his high strikeout rates he can be a strong option for fantasy. Since the start of May, Leclerc has made 32 appearances and pitched 34.1 innings while posting a 2.88 ERA, a .156 batting average against, and has struck out 54. His 4.20 ERA for the year still doesn’t look great, but his 3.44 FIP, 3.71 xFIP, and 3.30 SIERA are all rock solid and he has an impressive 13.60 K/9. His 17.9-percent infield fly ball rate is the ninth highest among pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched. His .166 xBA against and .275 xSLG both land in the 99th percentile as does his fastball spin rate. He needs to be added in any league that he is available in.
A.J. Pollock , OF LAD – Since returning from the IL on July 12, Pollock is hitting .406 with four home runs, 12 RBI, and a pair of steals across nine games. Pollock has always been a very talented player when healthy, so seeing him play well is far from surprising. The health is an issue though, but if he is available on the wire, he is worth adding to your roster and hanging onto him until the inevitable (unfortunate) injury occurs. His hard contact rate for the year is currently above 40-percent and his 90.5 mph exit velocity is the highest of his career. He bats fifth in the potent Dodgers lineup and that should allow him plenty of RBI opportunities while he continues to produce a nice blend of power and speed. He should be owned in all leagues.
Ramón Laureano , OF OAK – I will be honest, I was pretty low on Laureano coming into the year and when he was hitting .216 with three home runs, 12 RBI, and three steals through 36 games I was feeling pretty good; but he has obviously turned it around and he is putting up very impressive numbers. He is hitting .316 with 17 home runs, 41 RBI, and nine steals over his last 65 games, bringing his totals for the year up to a .282 batting average with 20 home runs, 53 RBI, and 12 steals. There are some things in his profile that do point to slight regression though, including a league average hard contact rate of 39.5-percent, a .340 BABIP (not extremely high, but likely above where it will finish), a .263 xBA, and .450 xSLG. His profile points to an above average player, not the elite level player numbers that he currently is producing.
Stock down
Dylan Cease , SP CWS – Cease has been a disaster since getting called up, pitching to a 6.19 ERA across three starts. He has great stuff and it shows with a strong 9.56 K/9, but he is the furthest thing from refined and he has no idea where the ball is going. He currently has a 5.06 BB/9, which would be the second worst mark in baseball if he had enough innings to qualify. The below chart (courtesy of Baseball Savant) is an ugly graphic of his pitches thus far. If you count it up, you’ll notice that he has thrown more balls than strikes. And it’s not just the fact that he’s throwing balls, but also the fact that a lot of them aren’t even close. He is getting behind in the count or letting betters back into counts by throwing an 0-2 or 1-2 pitch above the batters head or bounced in front of the plate. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets sent back down if his struggles persist.
Austin Riley , OF ATL – Riley set the fantasy baseball world on fire by hitting .298 with 11 home runs and 32 RBI through his first 30 games. He cooled off though and hit just .198 over his next 18 games, but still managed to smack five home runs and pick up nine RBI. However, the wheels are really coming off now, as he is hitting .171 with zero home runs and three RBI over his last 10 games, giving him a putrid .186 average over his last 28 games. That’s a pretty big sample of struggles and it’s time to be worried. Not only is he not hitting, but he’s not even making contact; over that 28 game span he has struck out 40 times in 97 at-bats and over the last 10 games he has struck out 14 times in 35 at-bats! His strikeout rate for the year is up to 34.3-percent. Yikes. With Inciarte now back off IL for the Braves, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Riley on the bench a few days per week, especially against righties (.227/.271/.432 slash line – compared to .333/.417/.857 against lefties).
Logan Allen , SP SD – Allen hasn’t pitched since July 16 and there is no word on when he will pitch next, but based on what he has done recently that is probably a good thing for those of you who own him in fantasy. He has a 17.18 ERA (Yes, you read that correctly) over his last three outings, giving up 14 earned runs across 7.1 innings pitched. The recent struggles bring his ERA up to 7.08 for the year to go along with a 1.77 WHIP and lousy 5.8 K/9. No part of those numbers is enticing for fantasy. His fastball velocity isn’t great at 92.3 mph and his fastball spin rate ranks in the 4th percentile (that’s terrible, if you weren’t sure). He has given up hard contact at a very high rate of 50.0-percent while only inducing soft contact 15.7-percent of the time. He can be left on the wire or cut if you own him.
Stocks to watch
J.D. Davis , 3B NYM – Davis has played very well this year when he has played; he has produced a .289 batting average and nine home runs across 228 at-bats. That .289 batting average is actually lower than his xBA of .301, which ranks in the 96th percentile. He has a 91.5 mph exit velocity (88th percentile) and his hard contact rate is solid at 40.7-percent. He also has a low soft contact rate of 10.7-percent. He is striking out less often than ever at a 20.5-percent rate. That’s a lot of positives in his hitting profile and he would be fantasy relevant if he was seeing regular at-bats. With the Mets expected to trade Todd Frazier for anything they can get, Davis would likely be looking at a near everyday role as the Mets starting third baseman. Deep leaguers may want to bank on that trade taking place and go ahead and add Davis.
Jakob Junis , SP KC – Junis has been on fire, over his last three starts he has a 1.35 ERA over 20.0 innings pitched while striking out 23. So that leaves the question, is he improving or has it just been a lucky stretch? Over that span he has a 13-percent swinging strike rate, which is in fact a three percent increase from his 10-percent mark for the year, but he also has a .200 BABIP against in that span and that is obviously not sustainable and it’s a big factor as to why he has only given up 12 hits over those 20 innings. Junis has a nice slider, but he doesn’t do anything particularly well really. His 42.2-percent hard contact rate against is very high (fourth highest in baseball, in fact) and the highest mark of his career, while he is inducing soft contact as the lowest rate of his career at 13.1-percent. His recent stretch makes him worth keeping an eye on, but I wouldn’t add him.