We are still early into the season and while we don’t want to overreact to just a few games of action, it is still important to take notice of who is doing well (or not) and why. We can use these small samples in determining what adds/drops or trades that we should target. Player’s fantasy values never stop changing and making the right moves in-season is crucial to winning a championship.

Stock up

Domingo Santana – Santana had a spot in stock up section of this article during Spring Training and his stock still hasn’t quit rising. He is on fire to start the regular season, hitting .340 (17-50) with four home runs, 19 RBI, 11 runs scored, and has stolen three bases. He is currently the third ranked player in fantasy and is bouncing between second and third in the Mariners batting lineup. This isn’t an out-of-nowhere breakout though, as we have already seen Santana have a season (2017) in which he hit .278 with 30 home runs, 85 RBI, and 15 steals. I liked Santana going into the year, and while I think he will continue to have a strong season, this current pace is of course unsustainable and he is someone you should listen to offers on to sell high. The Mariners offense is currently the best in baseball, and that is not going to continue. Don’t sell him just to sell him, but if someone comes in with a strong offer, take it.

Clint Frazier – With Hicks and Stanton going down with injury, a door opened up for Frazier to get regular playing time with the Yankees and it immediately rose his fantasy stock, before he even played. Since joining New York his stock has jumped up even further, as he has hit .429 (9-21) with three home runs and nine RBI since joining the big club. Frazier is a talented young player, in a lineup filled with talent, and gets to play half his games in the hitter’s paradise that is Yankee Stadium. He should be a valuable fantasy asset for as long as he remains in the starting lineup, but keep in mind that he may have a hard time doing that once Stanton and Hicks make their returns.

Luis Castillo – Castillo is young and talented and has been great in his first two starts this year, giving up two runs and just three hits across 12.2 innings pitched while striking out 17. Everyone was super high on him going into last year, and he struggled mightily, pitching to a 4.30 ERA and an 8.8 K/9. It may have been that everyone just a year too early on the righty and he looks like he is ready to take a step forward this year. Thus far, albeit a small sample, his hard contact percentage against is at a ridiculous 4.2% mark (was 38.4% in 2018), his line drive percentage is down to 9.1% (21.8% in 2018), and his ground ball percentage is at 59.1% (45.9% in 2018). I wouldn’t look to sell high on Castillo, unless getting a strong offer. If looking to acquire Castillo, keep your offers reasonable and don’t overdo it in your pursuit.

Stock down

Yasiel Puig – Puig has gotten off to an abysmal start this year as he is hitting .133 (4-30) with zero home runs, zero runs scored, zero steals, and three RBI. When Puig was traded to the Reds, his stock rose instantly and the fantasy world went crazy, as the move meant a huge upgrade in home parks. This was to be a huge breakout year for Puig and it had him being drafted in the top-75. However, the horrid start has his stock down and presents us with a small buy-low window currently. A lot of pressure was placed on Puig and a change of scenery can often lead to a struggle out of the gate, so this is far from out of the ordinary.  Add to that, that Puig is a notorious slow starter and his freezing cold beginning to the year almost should have been expected. Below is a chart of Puig’s career stats by month, April has his lowest marks in average, home runs, slugging, and OPS.

Anthony Rizzo – Rizzo has come out of the gates on the colder side of things, but hasn’t been a complete disaster. He is currently hitting .237 (9-38) with two home runs, eight RBI, and nine runs scored. This has become a theme of Rizzo’s career, a low batting average in April. Similar to what I said about Torres last week (who got hot almost immediately after), this isn’t someone whose owners are going to sell low on, but it could possibly be someone whose owners are willing to sell at a discount on, and if that is the case, pull the trigger and buy in. As you can see below, a low April batting average is to be expected with Rizzo based on his career numbers by month:

Corey Seager – Seager has always been overrated (in regards to fantasy) and this year was no different. Seager was drafted inside the top-90, despite coming off injury and never having posted a season with more than 26 home runs, never a season with more than 77 RBI, and never a season with more than four steals. He is off to a slow start this year, hitting .250 (10-40) with one home run, five RBI, six runs, and zero steals. Seager is a great real life player, but that doesn’t make him a great fantasy player, and that is something that people need to understand. I would not view him as a buy-low target. If you own Seager, hold him, hope he gets hot and then dump him off to someone else. Seager is Elvis Andrus , but with slightly more home run upside and way less steals.

Stocks to watch

German Márquez – Marquez has been fantastic through two starts, giving up just one run through 13.0 innings while striking out 14. However, those starts came on the road against the Marlins and Rays, and were not all that surprising. Marquez doubters want to see him at Coors Field, where he had a 4.74 home ERA last year. Coors Field has been undefeated against pitchers in the past and it will be a tough test for Marquez to consistently conquer his home field. His start today at home against a solid offense in the Braves could have a big impact on his fantasy value, one way or the other. Even though it is just one start, a strong outing could have his value up significantly, while a poor outing will just fuel the doubters. I don’t lean one way or the other on Marquez, and don’t think there should be too many trades involving him until we get a better idea of how he pitches at home.

Freddy Peralta – Peralta is a talented pitcher, but his mixed bag of results leaves his current fantasy value up in air. Last season, as a rookie, Peralta had a 4.25 ERA, but he also had an 11.0 K/9, 3.72 FIP, and a tremendous .172 batting average against mark. So far in 2019, he has continued to be a mixed bag. In his first start he lasted just three innings and gave up four earned runs, but followed that up with eight shutout innings and 11 strikeouts in his next start. He has the ability to be a stock riser, but we need to see it more consistently from him.  If he has another strong outing against the Angels tonight, it could have a big impact on his value. The strikeouts will be there, if he can lower his walk rates he will be a strong asset in 2019 while pitching for a contender.