Welcome to the Monday Night Showdown Slate for NFL Week 15!
Before we start, please allow me to reiterate that while we all love having a little skin in the game, these showdown slates are basically lottery tickets. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits and everyone shares in the prizes, but more often than not, you need that random, differentiated yourself from the herd dart-throw to hit in order to claim that top prize. As a result, we are encouraged to play responsibly. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.
OK, lecture over. Let’s get to tonight’s action.
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
Spread: Bills -7
O/U: 47
Weather: mid- 40’s, clear skys.
Notable Injuries
Bills
John Brown, (Covid-19 – OUT)
Patriots:
Damian Harris, RB (ankle – OUT)
Stephon Gilmore, CB (knee – OUT)
DVOA Defense Ranks
Buffalo:
vs Pass: 15th
vs Run: 18th
Patriots
vs Pass: 16th
vs Run: 32nd
Please note that players not listed below do not mean they are a complete fade. All players listed can be used as MVP/Captain.
MVP/Captain
Josh Allen, QB – Allen is facing a Patriots defense that has fallen flat over the past few weeks and are now no longer in playoff contention. A route by Buffalo would not shock me and seeing Tua run for two touchdowns against the Patriots last week makes me think Allen is going to have himself quite a night.
Cole Beasley, WR – Sure, Stefon Diggs is the obvious play but without John Brown, Beasley too has been a smash hit this season. The Patriots defense will be occupied with shutting down Diggs without Gilmore there to play man which should allow for Beasley take advantage of the soft zone scheme New England will employ.
Zack Moss, RB – Moss has seen double-digit carries for the Bills in back-to-back weeks. The Patriots rank last in DVOA against the run and just saw Salvon Ahmed tear them apart. Back in Week 8 Moss finished with 81 yards and two rushing touchdowns against New England.
Cam Newton, QB – I mean, if the Patriots are going to do anything it will be due to Cam Newton. He still has the rushing touchdown upside and may be forced to throw to keep the Patriots in this game. He is a big risk because he has also been benched a few times this season and a poor quarter or half could result in Stidham.
Mid-Tier
Stefon Diggs, WR – Now, Diggs isn’t a total fade for me. I think he is a better play at a cheaper price point as the Patriots do tend to make an effort to shut down one player. Diggs still had 92 yards against New England in Week 8 and no Stefon Gilmore is a good news here.
Jakobi Meyers, WR – Coming off a big game, Meyers had 111 yards in Week 15 against the Dolphins. He had six catches on 10 targets in Week 8 against the Bills earlier this season. He is the top receiving option for the Patriots.
Sony Michel, RB – You can actually run the ball a bit against the Bills and with Damien Harris ruled out we saw Michel lead the backfield last week. He should be the lead back once again this week with Harris ruled out.
Bills D/ST – The Patriots offense has been struggle city all season and Cam Newton has been prone to turnovers. If the Bills decide to dial up this week against their divisional foe we could have some turnovers and defensive scoring.
Gabriel Davis, WR- By now you know the story. When John Brown is out you can use Davis given his snap count and touchdown upside. Definitely a bit more risky than the other two receivers but I like him here nonetheless.
Devin Singletary, RB – Singeltary had 14 carries for 86 yards and a touchdown against the Patriots back in Week 8. New England can not stop the run. I would play both Moss and Singletary in the same lineup tonight.
Dart Throws
Damiere Byrd, WR – Someone is going to catch footballs for the Patriots and Byrd has had his moments this year which included a huge game against the Texans in Week 11 when he had 132 yards receiving.
Nick Folk, K – The Patriots can move the football, they just can’t score touchdowns. Folk has been great for them this season and could be one of the highest scoring players on New England in tonight’s game.
Dawson Knox, TE – Knox has touchdowns in three of the last four weeks. The Patriots are generally solid against opposing tight ends but if looking for a dart throw in a GPP he is as good as any.