Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Vikings -4

O/U: 47

 

DVOA Defense Rankings:

Packers: Run D – 25th Pass D – 16th

Vikings: Run D – 4th Pass D – 8th  

 

Offensive Breakdown:

Passing:

What’s not to love about Aaron Rodgers am I right? The Packers QB has thrown for 3,463 yards with 24 touchdowns and just two interceptions on the year and has his highest QB rating since 2016. Packers currently check in with the 6th best passing attack in football in terms of DVOA numbers and they run up against a Vikings defense that I am honestly surprised has graded out this well against the pass because we have seen some teams have little trouble throwing on them this season. If there is one flaw in the Packers passing attack is the fact that it is largely a two-man show with Rodgers to Adams as the main feature and the Vikings, at least on paper, have the name talent that could scheme to shut him down and thus cause issues for the duo. Now, Rodgers hasn’t been shy about throwing to other receivers but I think it does speak volumes that his number two receiver this year in terms of catches, targets and yards is the starting running back Aaron Jones followed by aging tight end Jimmy Graham .

With the Vikings, the teams passing attack has also been hit or miss. In the early part of the season there were rumors of trades and distrust in the quarterback Kirk Cousins . We then saw Cousins right the ship and Minnesota offense began to take off. An injury to Adam Thielen slowed things down a notch but Thielen is back after returning from his hamstring injury in Week 15 and that will give the Packers something else to worry about. There is also another big factor here for the Vikings and their pasing attack tonight and that is the fact that they are without Dalvin Cook and likely Alexander Mattison which could force the offense to be a bit more pass heavy here as well. I’d look for Diggs, Thielen and tight end Kyle Rudolph to really be a focus here.

Rushing:

The running game for the Packers has really been strong for their offense this year as both Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams have carried the load, combining for 1,257 yards and 23 touchdowns on the ground and that doesn’t even take into account what they both contribute to the team’s passing attack. The Vikings do technically have a strong run defense but Jones carved them up back in Week 2, rushing for 116 yards and a touchdown in 23 carries while Williams also found the end zone in the passing game as he finished with 41 total yards and a score while hauling in three catches on four targets.

Mike Boone and Ameer Abdullah are the duo tonight for the Vikings. Not exactly what fantasy owners had figured they would be looking at heading into this Week 16 contest against the Packers. In a relief effort in Week 15 we saw Boone run for 56 yards and two scores on 13 carries against the Chargers. Abdullah totaled 25 carries on five attempts while failing to catch either of his two targets. Now, Abdullah is the better PPR option but Boone is going to be the featured back and he should find success against this Packers defense that has struggled against opposing running backs this season.

Receiving:

So, I already told you the Packers are very limited at the receiver position outside of Davante Adams . He has 63 catches for 788 yards and four touchdowns on the season this year while missing more than a handful of games due to injury. Against the Vikings in Week 2 we saw Adams go for 106 yards on seven catches. Jimmy Graham is second on the team in targets and catches this season but he really isn’t a strong option. If you had to pick one secondary receiver I guess it would be either Allen Lazard or Geronimo Allison but at best we see those two get 2-3 targets a game.

For the Vikings the choices are again pretty obvious but at least there is more to choose from between Stefon Diggs who is the clear number one option given that Thielen is just returning from injury. Diggs found the endzone in the first meeting between these two teams and has 60 catches for 1,073 yards and five scores on the year. Thielen made his return from a hamstring injury in Week 15 and caught three catches for 27 yards and also took a carry for three yards. I expected him to be a bit slow out of the gate and given the injuries at running back we could see Thielen more comfortable in his second game back. Thielen caught five passes for 75 yards in the first game between the two teams.

Tight end Kyle Rudolph had a ton of success with Thielen out of the lineup but he becomes a bit more risky now that Thielen is back. You can certainly use him for his touchdown upside tonight.