Indiana Pacers vs Philadelphia 76ers

Spread: 76ers -5

Game Total: 207.5

 
Both teams played last night, pulling out victories over the Hawks (Pacers) and Knicks (76ers). This will be the first meeting of the year between these two teams and could certainly present a preview of a first round playoff match up. The 76ers rested Al Horford on Friday but will have him back in the lineup for tonight's contest. The 76ers however are unlikely to have Josh Richardson who missed Friday's game due to injury and is considered doubtful. We saw Furkan Korkmaz start in place of Richardson on Friday and play 30 minutes, scoring nine points with six rebounds and one assist. Leading the way for the 76ers on Friday was Embiid who scored 27 points while pulling down 17 rebounds. The Pacers rank 6th in rebound differential thanks to both Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis dominating the Pacers frontcourt. We haven't seen Embiid play many back-to-backs this season and after playing 35 minutes last night with a rested Al Horford it's safe to wonder if Embiid will be limited or see a slightly reduced role even if that means 28 minutes instead of 35. Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons will round out the starting five here for the 76ers. Simmons has one triple-double and five double-doubles over the past eight games. The Pacers have been strong against the guard position this season thanks to Malcolm Brogdon . Harris will shift down to small forward and match up against TJ Warren which is a positive spot for him and he should see more offense with Richardson out.
 
For the Pacers, the offense is pretty well balanced and lead by guard Malcolm Brogdon who is averaging 18.8 points, 4.9 rebounds and 8.1 asssists per game. The price tag is back to where it should be on DK and he will have himself an average match up against Ben Simmons whose length can cause issues for guards but Brogdon himself is larger than most point guards. Tied for the team lead in scoring with Brogdon is Domantas Sabonis who is averaging 18.8 points and 13.2 rebounds per game. He will have his work cut out for him today however with Al Horford presenting a strong defensive match up and Joel Embiid right there as well to contend on the glass. With that said, there have only been three games this year were Sabonis did not finish with a double-double. Lamb and Warren are secondary scorers for the Pacers, both averaging 17.3 points per game. I like Lamb in his match up today more than I like Warren. At center we see Myles Turner who is going to have his handsful today with Embiid and may even find himself in foul trouble. If he can stay on the court he will have a good stretch where Embiid is off the floor given the 76ers rotation but that may also mean Horford slides to center while the likes of a Mike Scott move into the PF position which will be a big boost for Sabonis.
 
76ers Mid-Tier: Al Horford
76ers Value: Furkan Korkmaz
 
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Pacers Mid-Tier: Jeremy Lamb
Pacers Value: T.J. Warren
 

Charlotte Hornets vs Milwuakee Bucks 

Spread: -14

Game Total: 225.5

 
We got a tough one here with the Hornets on the road against a Bucks team that is a 14-point favorite. We have hammered the Hornets all season long with opposing front courts and tonight they will be tasked with facing off against Giannis Antetokounmpo . The Bucks currently have Brook Lopez already ruled out with Giannis and Eric Bledsoe listed as questionable but both Giannis and Bledsoe are expected to play. Khris Middleton will continue to come off the bench for the Bucks as he returns from injury and you should expect him to play between 20 and 25 minutes. We saw Middleton log 23 minutes last night against the Cavaliers in which he scored 12 points with four rebounds and five assists.  Giannis scored 33 points with 12 rebounds, two assists, two blocks and two steals against Cleveland. Bledsoe is dealing with some knee soreness and that is likely why we saw him play just 26 minutes against the Cavs with George Hill coming off the bench to play 22 minutes himself. The center position will be interesting tonight as Brook Lopez is ruled out as I mentioned. We saw his twin brother Robin Lopez play 14 minutes last night and score eight points with five rebounds. If Robin Lopez gets the start he will be tough to fade on this small slate given his min-price salary and match up against the Hornets who struggle against opposing centers. Donte DiVincenzo continues to start with Middleton off the bench. He is an OK play and on a small slate may even have decent ownership while we look for those "Stars and Scrubs" type builds.
 
For the Hornets you start with Devonte' Graham who is averaging 17.9 points, 3.5 rebounds and 7.6 assists per game. Graham has been the Hornets most consistent player this year in terms of fantasy production and we saw him go for 34 fantasy points last night against the Pistons. Terry Rozier has an interesting rivalry against Eric Bledsoe after the two went at it in the playoffs a few years back which launched the "Scary Terry" moniker for Rozier as he often got the better of Bledsoe in that series. While the narrative is always something I like to play, Bledsoe and Hill do pose a tough match for most points guards. Avoiding the Giannis defense is going to be key and knowing that it's either Wes Matthews or Donte DiVincenzo that will be guarding the wing makes me feel comfortable with Miles Bridges who is coming off another strong performance after a slow start to his season. The rest of the Hornets front court is questionable with rookie PJ Washington drawing the Giannis match up and Cody Zeller going up against the likes of Robin Lopez who is still a good defensvie player in his own right.
 
Bucks Top Tier - Giannis Antetokounmpo
Bucks Value - Robin Lopez , George Hill
 
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Hornets Top Tier: Devonte' Graham
Hornets Mid-Tier: Terry Rozier , Miles Bridges
Hornets Value: N/A
 

Atlanta Hawks vs Houston Rockets

Spread: -14

Game Total: 235.5

 
Atlanta played last night in Indiana and will now be 14-point underdogs to the Rockets who will be without Clint Capela and Danuel House . James Harden is the top play tonight as the Hawks are among the worst teams in the NBA at defending the guard positions. Harden has gone for at least 60 FP in seven of his last 10 games. Russell Westbrook has strung together a few nice outings in a row himself, scoring 43 and 48 DK points. After them two the fun begins. We know P.J. Tucker is a lock for minutes and is a fair price. He will get you the defensive stats and the scoring and rebounding upside is here in this match up. We saw Gary Clark play 29 minutes the other night and go for 28.5 DK points in place of Clint Capela . He is just $3,500 on DK and should be a popular options. With House ruled out we can likely expect Ben McLemore to re-enter the starting lineup but given the usage of Harden and Westbrook his upside will be limited.
 
For the Hawks the plays are pretty simple in my opinion. Trae Young went for 49 points with one rebound, six assist, two steals and eight three-pointers agianst the Pacers last night. We do sometimes worry about jump shooters on the second night of a back-to-back but I think there is low ownership here tonight given the value that will allow for everybody to play both Harden and Giannis. Young's price decrease is likely only due to the slate size and is something certainly worth looking to take advantage of if you aren't going with a total "Stars and Scubs" build. Jabari Parker went just 1-for-8 from the floor last night and his match up against P.J. Tucker isn't exactly ideal but he does have the scoring upside and this will be a high scoring game. Cam Reddish played just 11 minutes last night after being questionable with a wrist injury. This same injury has him again questionable. With his limited playing time we saw DeAndre Bembry play 41 minutes in the overtime contest and put up a double-double with 15 points and 12 assists. We shouldn't always expect this type of production from Bembry but if starting his price is worth noting. I don't have much interest in De'Andre Hunter who has been awfully inconsistent nor the Hawks center positon whether it be Damian Jones , Alex Len or Bruno Fernando .
 
Rockets Top Tier - James Harden , Russell Westbrook
76ers Mid-Tier: P.J. Tucker
 
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Hawks Top Tier: Trae Young
Hawks Mid-Tier: Jabari Parker
Hawks Value: DeAndre' Bembry