Football season is here again so it’s time we have that age-old discussion of when should you be drafting your starting quarterback. Do you take one early? Do you take one late? Do you draft multiple QB’s based off match-ups? There are so many strategies, and everybody thinks they have the right one. Ultimately it comes down to overall roster composition but for the fun of it let’s take a look at some of the ADP’s for the quarterback position and see what makes the most sense shall we?
Buying into the Hype – Part-One.jpg)
Every season there are QB’s that are hyped up as the man to get and the question is usually how early is too early to get him. In past seasons we have seen Aaron Rodgers , Cam Newton , Drew Brees and most recently Deshaun Watson get similar hype heading into seasons. However, the hype that Patrick Mahomes is getting heading into 2019 might exceed anything we have seen from the group previously mentioned. Mahomes, drafted among the last rounds in most 2018 drafts, has an average ADP of 26.5 which places him just outside the second round in 12-team standard leagues. Now, don’t get me wrong here, what Mahomes did in 2018 was special as he threw for 5,097 yards with 50 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while rushing for 272 yards and two more scores. The question is can he repeat it and if he can’t how does he relate to the other top tiered QBs? The facts are that Mahomes will be without his top receiver in Tyreek Hill for what could be anywhere from four-to-eight games based on reports and will need running back Damien Williams to show that last year’s end of 2018 production wasn’t a fluke, especially now that teams have a book on him. Mahomes’ will also need to make sure that he can get the ball to Travis Kelce who will most certainly be the primary focus of defenses if they do not need to worry about Tyreek Hill burning them over the top. Will Sammy Watkins stay healthy enough to be a factor? Will rookie Mecole Hardman be able to adjust to the NFL game to be the replacement for the suspended Hill? Regression seems to be knocking on his door. Are you buying the hype?
Next Tier
The tier below Mahomes has some familiar faces that many should be comfortable with heading into the season. Let’s start with Andrew Luck , Aaron Rodgers , Deshaun Watson and Matt Ryan who are QB2-thru-QB5. Hard to argue really in my opinion, as these players get taken around the fourth-to-sixth round in standard league drafts. Luck is coming off an impressive year which saw him throw for 4,593 yards with 39 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Nobody knew what to expect from Luck given his arm troubles, but those issues were quickly laid to rest and he put up a Top-5 fantasy QB season. Next off the board is Rodgers who will be looking to bounce back from an injury plagued and frustrating season for him personally despite the fact that he still threw for 4,442 yards and 25 touchdowns with just two interceptions. There is a new coach in Green Bay and Rodgers seems rejuvenated. As long as he is healthy it’s not a stretch to think we see another huge fantasy year. Deshaun Watson and Matt Ryan round out the group. Many expected Watson to take a big leap forward in production last season and for the most part he did as he completed 68-percent of his passes for 4,165 yards with 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also ran for 551 yards and five scores to help bolster his fantasy production. Once again he dealt with major injuries to his secondary receivers in Will Fuller and rookie Keke Coutee which left him force feeding DeAndre Hopkins for better or worse. A healthy receiving core could go a long way for Watson in year three with his passing stats and that production coupled with his ability to run should keep him among the top five fantasy QB’s. After a down 2017 we saw Ryan bounce back in a big way in 2018 as he threw for 4,924 yards with 35 touchdowns and seven interceptions. The addition of rookie wide receiver Calvin Ridley was huge as he and Julio Jones along with Mohamed Sanu created a formidable receiving corp. Ryan had his season without a real running game as Devonta Freeman was injured for nearly the entire year and Tevin Coleman was a bust. With a healthy Freeman and the receiving group still intact, it is hard to think Ryan can’t have similar success.
Buying into the Hype – Part-Two
“Baker, Baker, the Touchdown Maker” I believe that was the common saying around Cleveland after rookie QB Baker Mayfield took over as the team’s starting quarterback and revitalized the city as he brought the Cleveland Browns back from the dead to finish with a respectable 7-8-1 record. Now, the Browns did win five of their last seven games and Mayfield was certainly a reason for their success as their passing game was non-existent under TyRod Taylor and fired head coach Hugh Jackson but the team also benefited from a very light schedule as they faced just two playoff teams during that stretch. Mayfield has a current ADP of 68 which has him as QB6 off the board, just a few picks behind Matt Ryan who has an ADP of 66. Who are you trusting more? Matt Ryan or Baker Mayfield ? The Browns had a HUGE offseason as they went and acquired Odell Beckham Jr to bolster their receiving group and they snagged suspended running back Kareem Hunt off waivers as well to add running back depth and a legitimate weapon when on the field, even if that won’t be until after Week 8. Is Baker good enough right now however to take advantage of those weapons and is he worth the fifth-round pick he is going to cost you to draft him is the question at hand. Mayfield started 14 games as a rookie, completing 63.8-percent of his passes for 3,725 yards with 27 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Mayfield had a horrible time connecting with then number one receiver Jarvis Landry who managed just four games of 60-plus receiving yards with Mayfield under center. Mayfield’s completion percentage ranked 24th in football and he finished 19th in QB rating. The assumption is he takes a step forward because they got Odell Beckham Jr., but Baker also put up those numbers with the Browns having one of the leagues easiest NFL schedules. That isn’t the case in 2019 as their improved finish comes with a tough road to battle. So the question remains, are you buying into the hype?
Rounding out the Top 10
This next group is quite interesting as we have Russell Wilson , Drew Brees , Cam Newton , Carson Wentz to round out the top-10 QB’s to come off the board. Each of these quarterbacks come with both questions and upside so let’s dive in. Wilson finished 2018 with just 3,448 passing yards, his fewest since 2014, but also managed a career best 35 touchdowns while matching his career low in interceptions with seven. He was also sacked a career high 51 times and ran for just 376 yards and, for the first time in his career, zero rushing touchdowns. Wilson lost his favorite receiver in Doug Baldwin but connected with Tyler Lockett which had the fantasy community rejoicing. The Seahawks made an effort to run the football in the second half of last season and that could be a strategy for them again in 2019 which has some definite questions surrounding the week-in-week-out viability of Wilson as a fantasy quarterback. The Seahawks did draft combine monster D.K. Metcalf but there are definite questions how well his skillset will play up in the NFL as a straight down the field burner. Brees failed to throw for 4,000 yards for the first time since 2005 but still set a new career best in completion percentage at 74.4-percent. The Saints have been having their offense rely less on Brees over the past few years so while there is some definite upside on games where he goes off there is no saying if at 40 years old they don’t keep taking the foot off the gas pedal to make sure he is good to go for the playoffs when the games really matter. Newton has the upside to be the top scoring fantasy QB when healthy because of his elite running ability and capable pass attack. The Panthers drafting of Christian McCaffery have given him a real weapon to check down to and the offense ran a ton through CMC last year. The issue is the shoulder problems that have plagued Newton which ultimately ended his season and have many wondering how close to 100-percent he will be heading into 2019. The Panthers have the receivers to make big plays in D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel along with McCaffrey and old safety net Greg Olsen but there is definitely more of a question mark on Newton’s chest than the superman symbol. To finish up we have Carson Wentz who was on the shelf to begin the season as he recovered from the ACL injury that ended his 2017 season. Wentz was solid over the 11 games he started before again going down with a back injury that ended his season. Two consecutive years ending in injury is not ideal and though the Eagles certainly have the weapons and Wentz himself has shown the arm talent to be a franchise QB the risk of taking him as a top 10 player at his position should definitely be on your mind.
Buying into the Hype – Part-Three
The Cardinals overhauled their franchise this offseason as they brought in a new head coach in Kliff Kingsbury and they used the number one overall pick to draft quarterback Kyler Murray just one season after they used the 10th overall pick on quarterback Josh Rosen . The Cardinals proceeded to trade Rosen and hand the reins over to Murray to be the team’s starter heading into the 2019 season. Murray put up some big numbers in college and Kliff Kingsbury has always coached some of the top scoring offenses at the NCAA level. Putting them together for the first time at the NFL level has some thinking Murray could put up gaudy stats in the pass first Cardinals offense that reloaded with weapons and will be looking from a bounce back season from dual threat running back David Johnson . Murray is currently being taken as QB12 with an ADP of 109.3 which is ahead of some notable veteran gun slingers like Philip Rivers , Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger .
Worth the Wait?
So, you feel like you have waited long enough to grab your quarterback huh? You spent your early and mid-round picks filling out your skill positions and maybe grabbing some extra running back depth because we all know you’re more than likely going to need it. If this is the case then you find yourself with a slew of fantasy QB’s that can certainly still get the job done for you and if you draft two you can pair them nicely with one another based off strength of schedule. Mentioned above were Philip Rivers , Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger . The old guard of the NFL are still all viable fantasy quarterbacks. Love for Tom Brady aside, Rivers is likely the most appealing of the group as he will get back a presumably healthy Hunter Henry to go with Melvin Gordon , Keenan Allen and a year three Mike Williams who looked poised to breakout last year and many feel will have a huge season in 2019. Big Ben lost Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown and that is going to sting no matter how you swing it while Tom Brady is throwing to who? Julian Edelman , James White and……seriously who else? Dak Prescott looked really good throwing the ball to Amari Cooper and he is getting Jason Witten back for better or for worse. He is an intriguing option for 2019. Jimmy Garoppolo is coming off an ACL injury but the 49ers do have some interesting weapons for him to throw the football to and have about five pass catching running backs as well. Of all the names mentioned and those that have gone unmentioned there is one QB that is worth targeting as a top priority for those waiting on the position and that is Kirk Cousins . The Vikings QB has elite receiving talent in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen . A legit pass catching and end zone threat at tight end in Kyle Rudolph and a ridiculously skilled running back in Dalvin Cook that can also aide in the passing attack. The fact that Cousins is considered the QB22 and has an average ADP of 151.1 seems crazy to me. All Cousins did in his first season with the Vikings is complete 70-percent of his passes for 4,298 yards with 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. His offensive line was poor and his running game was non-existent thanks to Dalvin Cook ’s balky hamstring. Cousins should be considered to have the upside of a top 10 quarterback, and he has the weapons around him to make that a very viable option.
Everybody Else
Matthew Stafford could be the safest of the group. Kenny Golladay is a stud and they added some interesting weapons which includes rookie tight end T.J. Hockenson and slot receiver Danny Amendola who helped head coach Matt Patricia win Super Bowls in New England. The Lions will also be getting back a healthy Marvin Jones Jr. to add as another weapon for Stafford to target. There is certainly some intrigue in Derek Carr now that he has Antonio Brown as his top target but Carr has never been an exciting fantasy quarterback to own so I would suggest trying to pair him up and draft him as a back-up and hope he hits so you can make a trade. Nick Foles in Jacksonville is something to monitor as the Jags have some weapons there that can-do damage but have never had the consistent quarterback play to allow that passing attack to flourish. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen can make a ton of plays with their legs but their passing abilities are certainly question marks. Both are fliers to take in case one of them can figure it out.