Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs: - 5

Game Total: 55.5

 

Players to Watch

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes – The likely NFL MVP had himself an amazing first year as an NFL starter as he threw for 5,097 yards with 50 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while completing 66% of his passes.  He also ran for 272 yards and two scores.  There really hasn’t been a defense that stopped Mahomes this season and the Colts are not likely to be the ones to figure him out.  This game has a 55.5 game total for a reason.

Tyreek Hill – The Chiefs gave Hill a QB that could take advantage of his big play ability and that turned into a career year as he caught 87 passes for 1,479 yards and 13 touchdowns.  The Colts do have a decent secondary and were able to keep DeAndre Hopkins to just 37 yards in their Wild Card win over Houston.  The way to attack the Colts is with your tight end so while I still see Hill having a good game, I think Kelce is in line for a great one.

Travis Kelce – The Colts finished the regular season allowing the third most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.  They now will face Travis Kelce who is in the debate for the best tight end in football.  Kelce set career highs in 2018, catching 103 passes for 1,336 yards and 10 touchdowns.  The Colts will need to focus on stopping Hill or Kelce because they don’t have the defense to stop them both.

Damien Williams – Spencer Ware is questionable for this one but the starting gig is still going to be Williams even if Ware is active.  Williams and his pass catching ability just opens up another thing the Colts defense will need to worry about as he has also proven to be a capable runner to the point the Chiefs decided to offer him a contract extension with many thinking he will be the lead back heading into next season.

Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck – The Chiefs allowed the most fantasy points to QB’s this season.  That translates into allowing a lot of yards and touchdowns by the positions.  The weather in KC isn’t great today but the Colts are only coming out of this game with a win with a big time performance out of Luck.  He managed to beat the Texans in round 1 but only completed 59% of his passes for 222 yards.  He has a better matchup here in a game with a weekend high point total of 55.5.

Marlon Mack – The Chiefs defense didn’t stop anybody this year, even allowing the second most fantasy points to running backs.  Mack ran all over a tough Texans defense last week and given the weather in KC today could be in for another big workload.

T.Y. Hilton – Hilton caught five of 10 targets for 85 yards against the Texans.  The bad weather in KC doesn’t bode well for the passing game but even still Hilton figures to be heavily targeted when the Colts decide to throw the football.

Eric Ebron – Chiefs couldn’t stop tight ends this year whatsoever. Ebron found the end zone last week against the Texans and his role in the short passing game could be huge today given the bad weather in KC. EBron had a career year in 2018, catching 69 passes for 776 yards and 15 touchdowns.

Pre-Game Props

1) The last non-kneeling, offensive play of the 1st Quarter is a running play (We'll leave this open until the 2:00 mark) Yes - 2.4/ No - 2.6

Given the weather I am going to say YES for this prop. I think both teams may have to run more than they had originally planned to.

2) P. Mahomes (KC) records 70 or more total passing yards in the 1st Quarter Yes - 2.9/ No - 2.2

Given the weather and the fact that the Colts pass defense has actually been decent this year I am going to go with a NO that Mahomes will not have 70 passing yards in the first quarter.

3) Either team kicks a successful field goal in the 1st Quarter Yes - 2.0/ No - 3.5

I am going to go with a YES for this prop. Both teams have very good kickers and given the weather I can see some drives stalling which will result in a field goal.

4) The first offensive play of the 1st Quarter is a completed pass Yes - 3.9/ No - 1.8

I am going to go with a NO for this prop.  I think the teams will either open with a running play or an incomplete pass because of the snowy conditions in KC.

5) M. Mack (IND) records 1 or more receptions on the IND opening drive Yes - 2.9/ No - 2.0

I am going to go with a NO for this prop.  I think Mack will be involved with running the football but I do not see him catching a pass during the first drive.

6) T. Kelce (KC) records 1 or more receptions on the KC opening drive Yes - 2.5/ No - 2.5

Yes, the way to attack the Colts defense is with the tight end position and Kelce is one of, if not the best tight end in football. It would make sense for him to be targeted during the Chiefs first drive.