Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

Houston Texans  -1.5

Game Total – 48.5

 

Players to Watch

Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck – Luck silenced all doubters by finishing 2018 with 4,593 yards with 39 touchdowns and 15 interceptions while completing 67.3% of his passes.  He twice faced the Texans this year and he lit them up, totaling 863 yards and six touchdowns for an averaging for 431.5 yards and three touchdowns per game.  The way to beat the Texans is through the air and the Colts are well equipped to do so with Luck under center.

Marlon Mack – The Texans have a stout run defense.  I really don’t expect much out of Mack here aside from possibly a goal line touchdown should the Colts get down that close.  I am staying away from the running game here.

T.Y. Hilton – Nobody was happier to see Andrew Luck back under center than Hilton as he finished the season with 76 catches for 1,270 yards and six touchdowns.  In two games against the Texans he has caught 13 passes for 314 yards for an averaging of 6.5 catches for 157 yards per game. The way to beat the Texans is through the air and you should look for Hilton to have a big game.

Eric Ebron – After being largely disappointing during his time with the Lions the Colts snagged Ebron in free agency this season and he set career highs in catches, targets, yards in touchdowns.  The Texans are horrible when it comes to covering opposing tight ends, allowing the second most yards per game to the position.

Houston Texans

Deshaun Watson – Watson had himself a great sophomore season, throwing for 4,165 yards while rushing for 551 yards. He totaled 31 touchdowns while turning the ball over 10 times.  His dual threat ability has led to big games for Watson this season.  In two games against the Colts he has thrown for 642 yards and three touchdowns while adding 76 yards and a score on the ground.  The Colts have struggled against the pass this season and that figures to bode well for Watson in this game.

DeAndre Hopkins – Hopkins finished 2018 with an incredible 115 catches with zero dropped passes.  He totaled 1,572 yards and 11 touchdowns.  Against the Colts this year he caught 14 passes for 205 yards and two touchdowns.  In their most recent meeting the Colts did hold Hopkins to just four catches on 10 targets for 36 yards and a score.  I do worry a bit the Colts take the same approach to shut Hopkins down given the lack of secondary receiving options for the Texans.

Lamar Miller – Miller is averaging just 2.9 yards per carry against the Colts this season but on the year he ran for 973 yards and averaged 4.6 yards per carry.  This game is going to be won or lost on the arm of Watson but I can see Miller getting involved here as well.

Keke Coutee – It has been an injury riddled season for the Texans 4th round pick but he is expected to be active for this game and will give the Texans a viable No.2 receiver on the other side of DeAndre Hopkins .  In the first meeting between these two teams Coutee caught 11 passes on 15 targets for 109 yards.  If the Colts are going to be focused on stopping Hopkins then Coutee could be in a great spot to produce as long as his hamstring stays healthy.

Pre-Game Props

1) The last non-kneeling, offensive play of the 1st Quarter is a passing play (We'll leave this open until the 2:00 mark) Yes - 2.6/ No - 2.4

Both of these teams rely heavily on their passing attack and they both know the way to beat their opponent is going to be threw the air.  Combined these two QB’s totaled 183 pass attempts in the two games against one another this season.  I am going with a YES.

2) Either team commits a turnover in the 1st Quarter Yes - 4.7/ No - 1.7

I am going to go with a NO here.  In the two games between the Texans and Colts there were just two total interceptions and two lost fumbles.  Do I think there may be a turnover in this game? Sure, but I am going with there won’t be one in the first quarter.

3) Both teams combine to score 10 or more points in the 1st Quarter Yes - 2.5/ No - 2.5

I am going to go with a YES here.  Both of these teams love to throw and have defenses that can be thrown on.  I think we see both teams find the end zone in the first quarter because of that and combine for more than 10 points.

4) The first offensive play of the 1st Quarter results in a sack, tackle for loss or incomplete pass Yes - 4.4/ No - 1.8

I am going to go with a No here.  I think we see positive yardage come from the first play of the first quarter. As I said, both defenses really struggle against the pass and both offenses should go to the air early and often.

5) T. Hilton (IND) records 1 or more receptions on the IND opening drive Yes - 2.4/ No - 2.8

Of course, if Hilton is unable to get open on the Colts opening drive that would be surprising. He is averaging 150 yards receiving in the two games against the Texans this season and he is Luck’s favorite receiver to target.

6) HOU gains 3 or more 1st Downs on their opening drive Yes - 3.3/ No - 2.2

I am going to go with a No for this one.  I think the Colts are able to hold them under three first downs on their opening drive.