2019 MLB Draft Guide: Understanding Launch Angles

What is Launch Angle (LA)?

According to MLB.com Launch Angle represents the vertical angle at which the ball leaves a player’s bat after being struck. The degree in which the ball exits the ball determines the type of contact made. Below is a chart that displays the outcome of a batted ball based off its launch angle.

Why do we care?

So why do we care about launch angles? Well we can use this data to identify fly ball and line drive hitters. Those who have launch angles in that degree-range are generally making better contact than those who are hitting more ground balls or pop ups. The better the contact, the higher the level of production that is likely to follow. We should also care because players and coaches are starting to care and are starting to implement it in their teaching. This has resulted in teams and players seeing drastic increases in their overall home run totals and we will likely continue to see these trends continue into this season.

Who is it impacting and how do I use it in my draft preparation?

LA is impacting pretty much everybody in baseball. It’s the new focus of the game. If you hit the ball hard enough at the right angle you are more likely driving the ball and thus increasing the number of home runs and extra base hits. In last year’s article I highlighted the change in philosophy by the Los Angeles Dodgers and how they became one of the top home run hitting teams in the league because of it. The Dodgers assistant hitting coach Tim Hyers joined the Boston Red Sox coaching staff prior to the 2018 season and spoke of his emphasis on launch angle with his hitters. One batter to note, was Xander Bogaerts . The Red Sox shortstop was coming off one of the worst offensive seasons of his career where he hit a disappointing 10 home runs after hitting a career best 21 the season before. In 2016, Bogaerts had an average LA of 11.3 degrees. In 2017 that number dropped to 8.2 degrees but with Tim Hyers now as his hitting coach Xander had a rejuvenated 2018 season, setting a new career high with 23 home runs while posting an average LA of 12.7 degrees. Now it wasn’t just launch angle that helped Xander’s big 2018 season. With launch angle, exit velocity is just as important as it shows you aren’t just hitting fly balls but you are hitting them with authority. Xander posted a career best exit velocity of 90.5 MPH in 2018 as well.  You can read more on exit velocity by checking out the 2019 Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide article Understanding Exit Velocity by Greg Jewett.

Xander wasn’t the only player touting launch angle heading into last season that had themselves quite the year as fellow shortstop Francisco Lindor finished 2018 with a career high 38 home runs after hitting 33 the season prior. Lindor has made huge leaps in his launch angle over the last two years and it has shown up in the power department. In 2016 he had an average launch angle of just 7.7 degrees and in that year he hit just 15 home runs. Over the last two years his average launch angle has been 13.6 degrees and 14.5 degrees, nearly double his 2016 number. To no surprise his home run totals have spiked.

So, while those are two examples you are probably wondering how you can use this information to prepare for your draft right? Well, let me first start off by saying it’s not an exact science. Last season NL MVP Christian Yelich had one of the worst average launch angles in baseball and half of his batted balls resulted in ground balls yet he hit a career best 36 home runs. Yelich was aided by a ridiculous 47.6% hard contact rate and an absurd 35% home run-to-flyball ratio so there are reasons outside of launch angle that a player can have a home run surge. What to look for in my opinion are trends. Look at a player who has recently started hitting for power and see the reasoning for it. If you look at their metrics and see recent upticks in launch angle matched with a solid exit velocity, then it is a pretty safe bet that the power surge could be sustainable. Players like Justin Smoak and Matt Carpenter come to mind as players who in recent years have seen an uptick in power numbers and their average launch angles and exit velocity support this level of production.

A player who I believe in heading into the 2019 fantasy season is actually the teammate of the NL MVP Brewers first basemen Jesus Aguilar .

In 2018 we saw Aguilar have an MVP caliber season for long stretches of the year as he finished hitting .274 with 80 runs, 35 home runs and 108 RBI over 566 plate appearances. The season before we saw Aguilar in a more limited role hit 16 home runs over 311 plate appearances. Other than the playing time, the only major thing that changed for Aguilar between the two seasons was his launch angle as it increased from 11.8 degrees to 16.1 degrees. The league average is only 10.9. Between seasons his exit velocity and hard contact rate remained the same but the massive increase in launch angle definitely impacted his home run totals. Even more encouraging is that his HR/FB rate numbers aren’t anything crazy for a typical power hitter as it sits around 23% over the last two seasons. So, here we have a power hitting first basemen with impressive exit velocity, a HR/FB rate that doesn’t scream regression and a big increase in launch angle from year to year. Right now, Aguilar has an average ADP of 77.8 which puts him around the 6^th or 7^th round of 12-team mixed league drafts. Many feel that first base is a shallower position this season but I think Aguilar could be a gem in this middle rounds.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com, Fangraphs.com, MLB.com, WashingtonPost.com, SonofSamHorn.com, ESPN.com