Every season it seems like there is a new statistic that is all the rage in the MLB.  Sabermetrics have introduced a plethora of new ways to measure a player’s performances.  In 2017 we saw 6,105 home runs hit which, broke the previous record of 5,610 which was set in 2016.  The increase in home run totals have many wondering about the cause.  Some are looking at the baseball itself, while others have noticed that players are starting to swing with more loft and swinging a lot harder to hit the ball in the air and thus over the fence.  MLB Statcast started tracking the Launch Angle along with Exit Velocity to see how it has impacted the home run totals.

What is Launch Angle?

According to MLB.com Launch Angle represents the vertical angle at which the ball leaves a player’s bat after being struck.  The degree in which the ball exits the ball determines the type of contact made.  Below is a chart that displays the outcome of a batted ball based off its launch angle.

Contact Outcome

Launch Angle

Ground Ball

Less than 10 degrees

Line Drive

10-to-25 degrees

Fly Ball

25-to-50 degrees

Pop Up

Greater than 50 degrees

Why do we care?

So why do we care about launch angles? Well we can use this data to identify fly ball and line drive hitters.  Those who have launch angles in that degree range are generally making better contact than those who are hitting more ground balls or pop ups.  The better the contact, the higher the level of production that is likely to follow. We should also care because players and coaches are starting to care and are starting to implement it in their teaching.  This has resulted in teams and players seeing drastic increases in their overall home run totals and we will likely continue to see these trends continue into this season.

Who is it impacting and how do I use it in my draft preparation?

So how do we know who is being impacted by this change in philosophy and just how much of a difference does it actually make?  In 2017 the Washington Post really dug into this question and their findings were impressive.  I suggest reading the entire article which can be found here but one of the players they profiled was Daniel Murphy. In 2015 Daniel Murphy had an average launch angle of 11.1 degrees. In 2016 his average launch angle increased to 16.6 degrees and what we saw was quite impressive as Murphy raised his batting average from .281 to .347.  He also set career highs in doubles (47), home runs (25), slugging percentage (.595) and OPS (.985).  At 31-years-old, Daniel Murphy had the best season of his career.  Not much changed for Murphy in 2017 either as he nearly matched his production all the way down the line.

In an interview Murphy credited his increased production on his study of launch angles and exit velocity and he focused on implementing them into his approach at the plate. To understand Exit Velocity, I very much recommend Greg Jewett’s Understanding Exit Velocity article in the 2018 MLB Draft Guide.

Another player who has openly talked about his focus on launch angles is Francisco Lindor.  Last season Lindor more than doubled his career home run mark when he launched 33 home runs. His average Launch Angle increased from 7.7 degrees to 13.7 degrees which, was the fourth-highest increase from 2016.  The player with the largest year-over-year increase in average Launch Angle was Yonder Alonso who saw a 9.1 degree increase from 10.3 to 19.4.  Alonso had never hit more than nine home runs in a single season but went on to hit 28 home runs in 2017. 

The Los Angeles Dodgers’ hitting coaches adopted this approach at an organizational level in 2017 after watching their team rank 26th in fly ball percentage (FB%) and finish 18th in team home runs in 2016.  However, in 2017 things improved, the Dodgers as a team finished sixth with a FB% of 37.0 while hitting a franchise record 221 home runs. 

This offseason the Boston Red Sox went and hired Tim Hyers to be their hitting coach.  Hyers was the assistant hitting coach with the Dodgers last season and he has already been quoted as looking to adjust the hitting approach of Red Sox hitters for this upcoming season.  The Red Sox also went and signed JD Martinez this offseason who made improvements in both launch angle and exit velocity last season on his way to a career-best 45 home runs.  Though not a guarantee, the hiring of Hyers could lead to more home runs from Red Sox players this season and thus increase their fantasy appeal.

This offseason Xander Bogaerts has been vocal about changing his approach at the plate.  He has stated he will be looking to hit more balls in the air this season with the help of Hyers adjusting his approach.  In 2016 Bogaerts set a career-high with 21 home runs, he had an average launch angle of 11.3 degrees that season and hit .294 with an OPS of .802.  The 2017 campaign was, by all accounts, a disaster for Bogaerts as he it just 10 home runs while hitting .273, his lowest average since he became a full-time starter.  His average launch angle in 2017 was just 8.2 degrees which, if you look back at the chart above, means on average Bogaerts was hitting the ball on the ground.  Xander was once one of the top-prospects in baseball and has flashed the ability to be one of the leagues better offensive shortstops.  This new approach and emphasis on launch angle could find him having a big bounce back season.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com, Fangraphs.com, MLB.com, WashingtonPost.com, SonofSamHorn.com, ESPN.com