As we enter 2018, the game of baseball is ever evolving.  Gone are the days where you can look at the back of a player’s baseball card and see he had a good year and take it for face value.  In today’s day of information and analytics we can now see that a player had a good year and begin to identify why that player was so successful or in some cases not successful at all.  When it comes to pitching the easy stats to look at are ERA (earned run average), WHIP, (walks + hits/ innings pitched) wins, losses, strikeouts and walks but what if I told you there is more to it than that.  What if there were other stats that could help you identify whether a pitcher was getting lucky or rather unlucky while on the mound and that those stats can and should be used when preparing for your upcoming fantasy baseball draft?  Well then let me introduce you to the life beyond ERA and into the sabermetric world of FIP (Fielding Independent pitching), xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) and SIERA (skill-interactive ERA).

FIP- Fielding Independent Pitching

Sabermetrics have completely taken over the way we look at statistics in baseball and they have become ever so important in the world of fantasy baseball as well.  The sabermetric stat FIP is defined as a measurement of a pitcher’s ERA over a period of time if that player was to experience the league average in BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play).  This number ignores the role of defense and by using the league averages BABIP it diminishes any good or bad batted ball luck the pitcher may have had.  Instead it focuses on the walks, strikeouts, hit batters and home runs that the pitcher may record while in the game.  Fantasy owners can often look at a pitchers ERA and compare it to their FIP and see if any sort of correction, good or bad, will be coming their way.  Should you find that a pitcher’s ERA is much lower than their FIP it is safe to assume they are getting relatively lucky when it comes to run prevention, whether it be solid defense behind them or favorable batted ball luck.

2017 FIP Leaders

Pitcher

ERA

FIP

Chris Sale

2.90

2.45

Corey Kluber

2.25

2.50

Stephen Strasburg

2.52

2.72

Max Scherzer

2.51

2.90

Jimmy Nelson

3.49

3.05

It shouldn’t be much of a surprise that last year’s leader in FIP was Chris Sale with a FIP of 2.45 and an ERA of 2.90, but would you believe that Jimmy Nelson finished fifth last season in FIP with a 3.05 despite having an ERA of 3.49.  This would indicate that Nelson was somewhat unlucky last season and a quick glance at his .340 BABIP would certainly be evidence towards that theory.   Nationals pitcher Gio Gonzalez fits the bill as a pitcher who might have been a bit luckier than most last season.  He finished the year with a solid 2.96 ERA but had a 3.93 FIP.  Gonzalez benefited from.258 BABIP to help limit the damage against him.  Realistically based off his FIP fantasy owners should have seen Gonzalez finish with an ERA a full run higher.  Now of course FIP is not the end all be all when trying to determine the upside of a starting pitcher, but when it comes to fantasy baseball this is one of my favorite stats to look at.  It helps me identify some potential bargains on draft day.  Pitchers who last season got rather unlucky but if the law of averages end up on their side in 2018 they could certainly contribute to a fantasy staff. 

Robbie Ray's Breakout

Statistics

2016

2017

ERA

4.90

2.89

BABIP

0.352

0.267

FIP

3.76

3.72

xFIP

3.45

3.49

SIERA

3.59

3.53

In 2016, Robbie Ray finished with the fifth worst ERA in baseball, he just went 8-15 with a 4.90 ERA for the Diamondbacks YET he was a popular sleeper candidate heading into 2017 and sure his 11.25 K/9 was certainly one reason for that but so was his 3.76 FIP.  Think about that for a second, his ERA was 1.26 runs higher than his FIP, an indication that maybe with better ball luck instead of having the fifth worst ERA and 15 losses he could have finished the season with the 33rd best ERA which certainly would have boosted his ADP heading into the 2017 season.  Of course, we all saw Ray end up having that breakout season in 2017 as he went from having the fifth worst ERA to the fifth best ERA in baseball with a 2.89. So yes, FIP is a pretty great stat but it is not the end all be all so let’s take a look at yet another useful sabermetric statistic when it comes to analyzing pitching.

xFIP- Expected Fielding Independent Pitching

So you just had your introduction to FIP so now lets get to xFIP shall we?  The main difference with xFIP compared to FIP is that xFIP considers the league average home run to flyball ratio and applies that.  So as we said before FIP likes to normalize BABIP well, xFIP likes to take the pitchers HR/FB ratio and standardize it towards the league average of 10%.  So in this instance if a pitcher had a HR/FB ratio at less than 10% they were likely on the luckier side of the coin than those who had a HR/FB ratio greater than 10%.

2017 xFIP Leaders

Pitcher

ERA

xFIP

Corey Kluber

2.25

2.52

Chris Sale

2.90

2.65

Clayton Kershaw

2.31

2.84

Luis Severino

2.98

3.04

Jimmy Nelson

3.49

3.15

In 2017 no pitcher had worse luck when it came to the home run ball than Masahiro Tanaka as he gave up home runs on 21.2% of the flyballs he allowed.  Now sure, playing your home games at Yankee Stadium will certainly do that to you, but assuming the league average is 10%, then we are seeing Tanaka allow a home run at double the rate per fly ball.  Now there were some injury issues with Tanaka this season, but he was always considered a nice buy low target during the year because of his impressive 3.44 xFIP which would indicate that if he just gave up the league average amount of home runs we would be looking at a pitcher with a 9.8 K/9, .305 BABIP and a reasonable 3.44 ERA.  Those numbers all have the making of a regular contributor to a fantasy rotation.  Unfortunately, he just never figured it out and though he made 30 starts he would finish the year with a 4.74 ERA. 

Best xFIP to ERA Differential

Pitcher

xFIP

ERA

Run Differential

Masahiro Tanaka

3.44

4.74

1.30

Clayton Richard

3.76

4.79

1.03

Jeff Samardzija

3.60

4.42

0.82

Chris Archer

3.35

4.07

0.72

Trevor Bauer

3.60

4.19

0.59

On the flip side of Tanaka was everybody’s favorite weekly sell candidate Andrew Cashner.  Cashner had horrible peripheral stats with just a lowly 4.64 K/9 and a miserable 3.46 BB/9 yet he somehow managed to skirt danger.  He had an above average .266 BABIP and despite calling Globe Life Park in Arlington Texas his home stadium he managed to limit his HR/FB ratio to just 8.6%.  Of course, Cashner’s FIP was 4.61 and his xFIP was an even worse 5.30.  Despite just being a terrible pitcher last season, Andrew Cashner just had all the luck.

Worst xFIP to ERA Differential

Pitcher

xFIP

ERA

Run Differential

Andrew Cashner

5.30

3.40

-1.90

Ervin Santana

4.77

3.28

-1.49

Jose Urena

5.29

3.82

-1.47

Lance Lynn

4.75

3.43

-1.32

Gio Gonzalez

4.24

2.96

-1.28

Now FIP and xFIP are certainly great indicators when it comes to identifying starting pitching but there is one more stat worth looking into and that is SIERA…

SIERA- Skill-Interactive ERA

So hopefully you have not been too overwhelmed to this point because there is one more sabermetric stat you must know when trying to identify value in starting pitching and that is SIERA. While not as popular as the other two, SIERA may actually be the most important ERA predictive stats because, as it says in the name, it measures the pitcher’s overall skill.  To quote the SIERA article on FanGraphs, “SIERA attempts to answer the question: what is the underlying skill level of this pitcher? How well did they actually pitch over the past year? Should their ERA have been higher, lower, or was it about right?” 

2017 SIERA Leaders

Pitcher

ERA

SIERA

Chris Sale

2.90

2.58

Corey Kluber

2.25

2.68

Max Scherzer

2.51

2.98

Clayton Kershaw

2.31

3.04

Luis Severino

2.98

3.25

The poster child for this entire article but especially when it comes to SIERA over the past few seasons has been Chris Archer.  The Rays pitcher just can not catch a break.  In 2017 he finished with the 9th best SIERA and 11th best FIP and xFIP despite going 10-12 with a 4.07 ERA.  Archer has had a slightly above average BABIP against him at .314 and his HR/FB ratio is above league average at 14% but he also boasts an impressive 11.2 K/9 which helps his SIERA.  Archer’s ERA last season was about a half a run higher than his sabermetric indicators.  He was just unlucky at times despite being a powerhouse pitcher that can flat out dominate at times, but other times teams just get lucky against him and the runs pour in.  Archer is no secret to the fantasy community so it’s unlikely you can get him at a bargain but if he can improve on some of those peripheral numbers then you might be looking at a top 5 starting pitcher. The opposite of Chris Archer last season, to no surprise, is Andrew Cashner.  Again, Cashner was absolutely dreadful last season when looking at his peripheral numbers.  His ERA is nearly two full runs lower than what it should have been if he had just pitched to league average peripheral stats but nevertheless he had luck on his side.

2017 Season

Statistics

Chris Archer

Andrew Cashner

ERA

4.07

3.40

K/9

11.2

4.64

BABIP

0.325

0.266

HR/FB

14.1%

8.6%

FIP

3.40

4.61

xFIP

3.35

5.30

SIERA

3.44

5.52

There are plenty more sabermetric stats worth looking at when trying to identify quality starting pitchers but hopefully you now have a better understand of how to apply FIP, xFIP and SIERA as you begin to prepare for your fantasy draft.  It’s worth stressing however that these statistics should be used all season long.  If you find yourself in need of starting pitching find somebody with a poor ERA but a solid FIP. xFIP or SIERA as that can create a nice buy low opportunity.  A perfect example of this from last season would be Aaron Nola who had a 5.06 ERA through May but also had a 3.92 xFIP which indicates he was getting a bit unlucky and boy did he turn his season around, finishing the year with a 3.18 ERA and a 3.08 FIP, 3.26 xFIP from June on.  This same strategy can also be applied to the waiver wire as there are always guys waiting to be picked up in the early weeks of the season that go overlooked because fantasy owners perceive their strong starts as fluky.  Well you have the knowledge now to make that determination for yourself.  Apply it and go win yourself a fantasy baseball championship.