Happy Sunday everybody! We have a nice big slate of day baseball to end the weekend but before we look forward let us take a look at some of the best and worst from yesterday’s action.
Vladdy Daddy
At the beginning of the season, you would have been hard pressed to find a Vegas line on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to lead the league in home runs but through 62 games that is just what he is doing.
Since entering the league in 2019 as the super prospect with the Hall of Fame father we have seen glimpses of what can be, but it was never put together at a consistent rate. That was until 2021 where Guerrero has arrived in a big way. As we head into Sunday, Vlad leagues the MLB in home runs, RBI, OPS, OBP and W.A.R among a few other things while also leading the American League in batting average. At age 22 Guerrero is every bit as dangerous at the plate as his father was and he is looking fully ready to live up to that number one overall prospect ranking he had going into the 2019 season and those who drafted him in the somewhere between rounds three and five this season are being rewarded.
You can check out all of yesterday hitting stats right here
Bauer Outage
A lot has been made of the recent sticky substance issue around the league with the MLB now saying they are going to crack down on pitchers using substances on the ball to help increase their grip. While Gerrit Cole has made the biggest headlines, another starter many are taking a look at has been Trevor Bauer. Bauer had long been speaking out against those who cheated in baseball but suddenly over the past two seasons his spin rate moved in line with some of those now being called out for using the sticky stuff and last year Bauer won the Cy Young award on the back of a drastically increased spin rate and being nearly unhittable at times. This offseason he signed a big contract and the spin rates for him were on par as they were last season and he was looking good and then, a few weeks back, the MLB decided to say enough was enough. In last night’s start Bauer was tagged for six runs (four earned) on nine hits over 6.1 innings. Over his last two starts now, since the controversy, Bauer has allowed seven runs on 15 hits over 12.1 innings. Now, could this all be coincidence? Sure, pitchers are allowed to have bad games here and there, and these outings weren’t overly horrific. However, if we are to believe Bauer may have been one of the pitchers using the sticky stuff then there could certainly be a reason his pitches have been a bit more hittable over the last two starts. In fact, over his last two starts his spin rate has actually gone down from what it was prior to the leagues statements.
You can be the judge, there hasn’t been any proof that Bauer has changed his “routine” while on the mound, but this is certainly something worth paying attention to.
You can check out all of yesterday pitching stats right here
Don’t forget to check out the MLB Live Injury Blog to stay ahead of the news
Today’s Slate
It’s Sunday Funday around the MLB as we have 15 games going off today with the majority kicking off at 1:05 pm ET. We should be pretty good when it comes to weather today with just the Rockies vs Reds game dealing with some possible rain impact. You can check out the weather park by park at the Fantasy Alarm Weather Center.
Some favorable matchups worth looking at today from a DFS perspective would be the Blue Jays against southpaw Martin Perez of the Red Sox. The Sox starters have been atrocious of late, posting a team ERA around 9.00 and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is as locked in as one can be right now. I also like the Brewers going up against Pirates starter Wil Crowe and from the pitching side, Pablo Lopez at home against Atlanta is the play. Lopez continues to be incredibly dominant when pitching in his home ballpark this season, posting a 1.21 ERA at home over seven starts compared to a 5.04 ERA over six starts on the road. Those numbers are no small sample size either, over his career he has a 2.76 ERA over 29 starts in his home ballpark while posting a 5.86 ERA over 26 career road starts. The man loves Miami.
Betting Favorites
Big slate today with a lot of sharp lines but if you are looking to just take the favorites these are the biggest plays on the board for today’s action! Don’t forget to check out Wager Alarm later this morning to get today’s MLB Best Bets and Prop Bets.
The Chicago White Sox are -240 favorites today against the Detroit Tigers as they send southpaw Carlos Rodon to the mound. Rodon has been lights out this season, posting a 1.96 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP while striking out 88 over 59.2 innings. This will be his second start of the season against the Tigers and in the first matchup he struck out 12 over six innings.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are -245 favorites against the Texas Rangers tonight. Now, the Dodgers were massive favorites last night as well, but the Rangers were able to tag Trevor Bauer for six runs (four earned) and they pulled off the upset. Tonight, they face Walker Buehler who is 5-0 with a 2.56 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. He has 72 strikeouts over 77.1 innings this season. The Rangers are +220 underdogs if you think they can pull off the win again tonight.
The Milwaukee Brewers are -200 favorites against the Pirates today. So far, the Brewers have taken both games of this series after having sent their top two starters to the mound in Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes. Today they pitch Adrian Houser who has allowed a total of two earned runs over his last 15.1 innings. The Pirates offense has not been very good this season, but they did beat Houser in his third start this season. I am looking to focus on the other side of this matchup however and stack the Brewers bats against Pirates starter Wil Crowe who is 0-4 with a 7.26 ERA over eight appearances (seven starts) this season.