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St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves
SunTrust Park
ATL -140
O/U - 9
Season Series: ATL 4-2
STL vs. LHP - .755 OPS (18th), .178 ISO (20th), .322 wOBA (18th), 100 wRC+ (T-12th)
ATL vs. RHP - .790 OPS (7th), .193 ISO (9th), .333 wOBA (T-6th), 103 wRC+ (T-8th)
STL Bullpen - 3.88 ERA (6th), 1.07 HR/9 (T-1st)
ATL Bullpen - 4.26 ERA (11th), 1.36 HR/9 (17th)
Pitching
Games like these are EXACTLY why the Braves went out and signed Dallas Keuchel to the deal they did. He didn’t have a great final start, but pitched well over his final 10 games notching a 3.65 ERA. Keuchel was rock solid at home this season pitching to a 2.74 ERA compared to 5.01 on the road. He averaged six more fantasy points at home for the record. Right-handed hitters had a much easier -- well better than left-handers as they’ve notched an .800 OPS while LHH have a .620 OPS against him.
On the flip side, Miles Mikolas is starting this contest for the Cards and is actually comes into this game in really good form, allowing three earned runs or fewer in six consecutive starts. That being said, considering how good he’s been, we must mention a couple red flags. The Braves can run a healthy amount of left-handed hitters out there and Mikolas did not fare well against them this season. LHH hit .284 with a .331 wOBA and over a 45-percent hard hit rate. Not only that, but he was putrid away from home pitching to a .540 ERA while allowing an OPS near .850 compared to a mark under .700.
Hitting
Considering the Braves are throwing out a lefty in Game 1, the Cardinals are deploying six straight right-handed batters to start this game off. Two of their top-three in Tommy Edman and Paul Goldschmidt both have wOBA’s approach .400 against southpaws this season. Goldschmidt has ALWAYS crushed left-handers, so that’s no surprise at all. Other than those two, Yadier Molina is the only other Cards player that has decent numbers against lefties.
Dexter Fowler and Paul DeJong are two other guys I’d be interested in just because of their skill sets. Fowler is dual-threat option at the top of the lineup while DeJong belted 30 HR this year, so it’s very possible he can run into one here.
When we begin looking at the Atlanta offense, our eyes begin to widen. Five of their first seven batters are lefties and the two that aren’t almost notched a 40-40 season in Ronald Acuña Jr. and the other is Josh Donaldson who fell three homers shy of 40 homers. The Braves have three players (Freddie Freeman x2, Matt Joyce , Dansby Swanson ) who have homered off of Miles Mikolas .
Five of the Braves first six hitters all have a wOBA of .347 vs. RHP this year, with Freeman leading the way at .412. Acuna, Freeman and Donaldson all homered 30 times against RHP. What continues to be the common theme, though? Freddie Freeman . Lefty? Check. Strong BvP? Check. Matt Joyce and Nick Markakis both hit .298 vs. RHP this year and are cheapie options hitting in strong run-producing spots in the Atlanta order.
Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodger Stadium
LAD -169
O/U - 7.5
Season Series: LAD 4-3
WAS vs. RHP - .785 OPS (8th), .190 ISO (T-10th), .332 wOBA (8th), 100 wRC+ (11th)
LAD vs. LHP - .777 OPS (13th), .201 ISO (7th), .326 wOBA (13th), 103 wRC+ (10th)
WAS Bullpen - 5.68 ERA (29th), 1.55 HR/9 (T-25)
LAD Bullpen - 2.85 ERA (5th), 1.19 HR/9 (8th)
Pitching
It was an extremely weird season for Corbin, but an extremely effective one at that. He ended the year with a 3.25 ERA while striking out 238 batters across 202 innings. He faced off with the Dodgers once this season and threw seven shutout innings and picked up a dub. The Dodgers offense comes in hot having notching an .810 team OPS over the last two weeks of the season. You’d have to be crazy to use left-handed hitters off of Corbin in this one considering their .190 AVG, .510 OPS and .229 wOBA against him during the regular season. Corbin could be the sneaky play here considering how many left-handed hitters the Dodgers likely deploy here.
There is no ceiling for Buehler when he’s on, which is what everyone knew about him coming into the season. We’ve seen some bad games, but we have also witnessed complete game shutouts that included 15 strikeouts. That’s the upside he brings to the table. He faced off with Washington twice this season, losing one of the match-up’s while pitching to a 2.92 ERA across 12.1 innings. Washington’s offense was slightly better than LA’s to wrap up the year, posting an .823 OPS over the final two weeks.
Hitting
Obviously we love the pitching match-up, but something's gotta give. The Nats have some powerful bats, and if there is anything to hang your hat on if you’re a Nationals player, it’s that righty power has given Buehler a little trouble. Righties have 1.23 HR/9 against Buehler and that number rises to 1.52 for righties in Dodger Stadium. That firmly brings Anthony Rendon and Trae Turner to the forefront. Turner belted 20 bombs in the regular season -- then one in the Wild Card round, and stole 35 bags on top of that. Rendon, we don’t need to say much about, hit 34 bombs this season.
The Dodgers have some strong options against southpaws that we should look into. A.J. Pollack hit .323 with a .376 wOBA and Justin Turner ended his 2019 campaign at .288 with a .385 wOBA vs. LHP. They both stick out like sore thumbs. A chalky play, per usual, with a lefty on the mound will likely be the multi-position eligible Kiké Hernández (at least on DK). He finished the season horribly, however, so monitor that he’s in the lineup first. Chris Taylor also has been confirmed a starter for this one and posted seven homers and a .350 wOBA in 141 at-bats vs. LHP, so that’s another option for us. I feel like I don’t need to mention that the potential NL MVP is on the Dodgers, but yeah, Cody Bellinger is in the postseason.