Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors

Total: 211.5

TOR -10.5


Orlando

From the month of February on, the Magic were just .5 games worse than the Raptors, so I'm not sure many people should be shocked the Magic went into Toronto and stole Game 1. I'm not sitting here calling a sweep or anything, but the Magic also happen to be one of the best defensive units in the league. They finished the year eighth in DRtg and were even better after the All-Star break ranking fifth.

Toronto ranked third, which is why Vegas is giving them a 10.5 point cushion here. Let's get into some Magic players. Everytime the Magic needed a basket, they turned to D.J. Augustin , who went 9-for-13 and hit four three's, scoring 25 actual points in this one. Toronto was slightly worse (16th) than league average at defending the point-guard position according to DvP. Augustin has been a fantastic distributor lately, notching six-plus assists in six-of-seven games. Head Coach Steve Clifford made it very apparent that there will be very few subs in this series, as just one player off the Magic bench played north of 20 minutes and that was Terrence Ross . Ross did not shoot the ball well, but contributed across the board giving us six rebounds, two assists and two steals as well. I like him, but prefer Evan Fournier for the safety. Fournier played 37 minutes and took a team-high 18 shots.

If you listened to our podcast and livestreams and read all our content, than you know we were on our hands and knees begging for the Magic to play Jonathan Isaac extended run. Fast forward to the first playoff game and Isaac led the Magic with 40 minutes played. Isaac is arguably the lengthiest perimeter defender in the game which presents offensive players issues. His length helped him grab eight boards and block three shots in Game 1 and it's something that can be a staple of his game if he's on the floor that often. Issac has been extremely consistent against TOR this season averaging 26.4 FP/game across five games and the best part is he's averaged 29.6 minutes. What is his upside if he gets another 40 tonight?

The last two Magic players I'm interested in are Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic . We saw the defensive ability of Marc Gasol on display in Game 1 shutting Vooch down from the floor as the All-Star center shot 3-of-14 and scored just 11 points. He's averaged 46 FP/game against TOR and I'm suspecting he has a far better game than he did the last, but we should worry slightly about Gasol's defense. Gordon looks engaged in all aspects of the game and is a fine GPP play. He has 50-point upside if he can put it altogether.

Toronto

Kyle Lowry had one of the strangest lines I've ever seen, and not because he didn't score, but because he didn't score, his team lost and they were +11 when he was on the court. Lowry is in a really strong bounceback spot and I know I touted the Magic defense, but Augustin is diminutive and Lowry should be able to take advantage of that. The peripherals he provided were fantastic, he just didn't score.

Danny Green in the postseason is the best Danny Green . Like he seemingly always does come playoff time, he showed up scoring 13 actual and 22.75 FP. He's only 4.4K and it wouldn't shock me in the slightest if we saw another line like the one in Game 1. Fred VanVleet was the only Raptor bench player that we should look at. He didn't do much outside of the 14 actual points, but we know he's capable of much more and he was on the floor for 27 minutes, so if that's the role we should expect, he's firmly in our player pool.

It shouldn't shock anyone that Pascal Siakam outplayed Kawhi Leonard anymore. I'm willing to bet my lunch money on that happening a number of times this postseason. Leonard is $1,000 more than Siakam on DraftKings and although I really like Leonard's price, I'd rather pay for Siakam. Maybe I'm in the minority here, but we need to get a little spicy on just a three-game slate. Marc Gasol was unleashed for 32 minutes and was extremley solid scoring 27 FP and his price tag didn't budge at all. He's a very solid, safe, option, as long as he's given that type of run again.

 

San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets

Total: 210

DEN -7

 

San Antonio

Was it more shocking to see the Spurs take Game 1 in Denver who had the best home record in the NBA or that we doubted a Gregg Popovich stealing a road game like we seemingly always do? Both is probably the right answer, but tonight is a must win for the second seeded Nuggets.

The Spurs three-headed point-guard attack played out pretty much how it has all year long. Bryn Forbes paced all three with 30 minutes, while Derrick White played 27 and Patty Mills played 21 off of the bench. White is the best option for us in fantasy just given his ability to do everything, and I'm still holding on to the chance that Patty Mills plays more minutes than Forbes in one of these upcoming games.

DeMar DeRozan was the best player on the floor for either team and don't let his 6-for-17 shooting from the floor tell you otherwise. He still managed a team-high 18 points despite shooting poorlywhile he dominated the glass with 12 rebounds and essentially was the team's primary distributor coming away with another team-high six assists. DeRozan has been awfully consistent against DEN this year averaging 39 FP. He scored 40 FD points in Game 1.

Ultimately Rudy Gay is going to play more minutes than Jacob Poeltl on a night-to-night basis, but Pop has realized they need some size and strength to bother Nikola Jokic in the paint at times, which is why we saw Poeltl play 24 minutes in this one. We're not rostering Poeltl for his offensive upside, but for the other stats such as rebounds and blocks. The scoring would obviously be a bonus.Gay is going to be the Spurs go-to bench scorer this postseason, just like he was all season long. No way LaMarcus Aldridge has a Game 2 like he did in Game 1. I refuse to believe it. Denver was worse than league average at defending power-forwards and Aldridge averaged 20 actual points on 50-percent shooting against them during the regular season.

Denver

Jamal Murray 's fantasy performance turned out to be decent (on FD) because of five steals, but he did not look good at ALL offensively. He shot 8-for-23 from the floor and didn't dish out any assists. I know Nikola Jokic had 14 and was where the offense was running through, but c'mon man, you're the team's point-guard. Can't even get one? I don't think that streak makes it to two games tonight. Monte Morris didn't have the shot falling (1-for-6) but he saw 23 minutes off of the bench. Morris could be an interesting PG2 on FD and if he doesn't work out, well, his score is dropped anyways.

I love seeing Gary Harris still underpriced because we can take advantage of it here. People are just now catching on that he's getting back to the place he was before his injury when he was scoring in double-figures in points on a nightly basis, which he's done in four straight and five-of-six after 20 actual in Game 1. Harris is the team's best perimeter defender as well, so he's going to see the 37 minutes he saw in Game 1 each and every night. Playing time = opportunity. Will Barton is another Nuggets wing player I'm interested in because of the concerted effort he's been making to be more involved on the glass. He's grabbed six or more rebounds in three-of-four games and nine-plus in two straight. He's a wild card, but a wild card that could pay off.

The player on Denver will the largest range of outcomes has to be Paul Millsap . He's scored in the teen's in fantasy points in two of his last three games but went for 37 on April 5th against the Trailblazers. He has been dreadful against the Spurs this year, however, averaging 6.7 actual points and just 19.2 FP. if you want to talk about a light at the end of the tunnel it's that he averages 32 FP at home this year compared to 24.6 on the road. Take those numbers for what they are. Nikola Jokic is probably going to be chalkiest big man of the night after notching a triple-double in Game 1. He did that and took only nine shot attempts after averaging 15 per game during the regular season. Look for Jokic to assert himself offensively more. The only problem with that is he could get himself in foul trouble and in comes Mason Plumlee . Plumlee only played 17 minutes in Game 1, but he's a game theory play if you think Jokic gets in early foul trouble.

 

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trailblazers

Total: 223

POR -1.5


Oklahoma City

I think the consensus around the league was that Oklahoma City was the best shot at upsetting a higher seed and that still holds true, they just need to steal one game in Portland. This game has the highest total and the closest spread, so this is the game we should look to have the most exposure to tonight.

Russell Westbrook was masterful in Game 1, but it wasn't enough to get them over the hump. He notched a triple-double -- which he's done once or twice over the years -- and shot nearly 50-percent from the floor as well. It wasn't any sort of surprise seeing Dennis Schroder come off the bench for 36 minutes while Terrance Ferguson started, but played just 16. That's what will play out here again and I really like Schroder in a bounceback here. C.J. McCollum tied his career-worst with a 113 DRtg this year, which is the match-up Schroder will most likely see. He only shot 5-of-17 from the floor in this one, but the 17 attempts were as many as Westbrook had.

So Paul George claims his shoulder is healthy, but it really hasn't looked healthy in quite some time. He was an MVP candidate before the injury and now he's struggling to shoot 40-percent from the floor, which he hasn't accomplished in three straight games including Game 1. He was seen with ice on his shoulder after practice in between Game 1 and 2, so I'm not sure how healthy he truly is, despite what he is saying. All that, we want it to be true because we want to use SF's against Portland. We have all year and it's been profitable. The Blazers ranked in the bottom half of the league in DvP against SF's and George himself has averaged 64 FP/game against them this year and that's including Game 1's performance. That's how dominant he's been against them this season.

The Thunder bench -- outside of Dennis Schroder -- had nobody play more than 13 minutes, so expect heavy run from Jerami Grant and Steven Adams again here. We're relying on Grant to get peripheral stats for us and I'm not totally against him, but I'm not forcing him into my lineups either. Adams has a great individual against his former bash brother in Enes Kanter and that was on display in Game 1 as he scored 17 points on 8-of-14 shooting. Load up on Adams shares in this spot.

Portland

It's absolutely no secret where the Blazers are going to get their productive from. Damian Lillard , despite the six turnovers, scored a game-high 30 points and played 39 minutes to boot. With Jusuf Nurkic off the floor this season, Lillard has a massive 4.2-percent increase and averages 1.33 FP/min. C.J. McCollum was the team's first-half star scoring 24 actual points in this one. If you want a correlation as to why, well, Dennis Schroder defense maybe? Schroder is one of the absolute worst defenders in the game and if he's guarding McCollum here, McCollum becomes one of my favorite per dollar plays on the entire slate.

Staying away from the Blazers small-forward position would normally be the smart thing to do, but given it's a three-game slate, let's dissect it. Mo Harkless played 22 minutes, as did Rodney Hood and Evan Turner played 16. Hood is the most offensively gifted of the three, but I don't think they need that with Lillard/McCollum/Kanter on the floor. I could see extended minutes for Harkless here. We should also factor in Harkless had five fouls in this one, which played a part as well.

Al-Farouq Aminu is someone I've always looked at in pace up games. He's had a really solid season against the Thunder averaging 28 FP/game and he matches up well against another athletic PF in Jerami Grant . It was also great and comforting to see him play 35 minutes in Game 1. I'm not sure there was a trade at the deadline that was a bigger acquisition than Enes Kanter given what's transpired since. Kanter was a MONSTER in Game 1 scoring 20 points and grabbing 18 rebounds. He has a ton of defensive deficiencies, but he blocked two shots and even came away with a steal while on the court. He's only put together one outing of less than 37 FP over his last seven games and has a double-double in six of seven to boot.