DFS NBA Write-Up & Optimal Lineups: November 29

Published: Nov 29, 2018

What's up everyone? A tough night last night (Wednesday) but again, small things keeping us below the cash line are super frustrating. This years DFS players are being VERY reactive to late breaking news / swapping in players that haven't flashed anything this year. Last night that was Tim Frazier , who had played FIVE total minutes over his last SEVEN games total. He had started before and hadn't scored more than eight points and five assists in any game this season and had played 30-plus minutes in just ONE game. Does that sound cash viable to me? That being said, if the whole community is going to be that reactive to news, we have to as well. We had some good plays (Gobert, Arcidiacono, etc.) but no Frazier at 60+% = no cashing. Today is a new day, but I would like to reiterate this is a GPP SLATE ONLY. Tough to stomach cash on a three-game slate. Let's jump into it.

Golden State Warriors @ Toronto Raptors

Total: 226.5

TOR -9

Warriors

On last night's podcast I talked about how I'm not the biggest fan of due to the defense impact, but a 41.4-percent usage and a 1.62 FP/min is hard to come by for anyone and hard to ignore. Those are his numbers without and who are both already ruled OUT. Durant has gone for 55 or more DK points in five straight games and has gone over 70 in back-to-back outings as well. has a slightly nicer matchup as is having his worst defensive season according to DRtg as he has notched a 108 mark. Thompson has scored 22 actual points or more six straight games and has gone over 39 DK points in three straight contests.

The rest of the Warriors are not my favorite tonight. I understand playing now that his price has dipped under $5,000 and he has a 24.3-percent USG and is over a FP/min with Green and Curry off the floor. and would probably be the only other two players I roster because they seem to have a consistent role with everyone out. Their upside is just very limited, especially when you note Iggy has taken five shots over his last three games.

Raptors

is one of my favorite plays of this mini three-game slate and I don't care who knows it! Lowry is coming off one of his best offensive performances -- at least in terms of scoring -- pouring in 24 points on 8-of-14 from the floor. The Warriors rank 25th in DvP versus the point-guard position and he has a clear advantage against and his 113 DRtg and -2.6 DBPM. Leonard hasn't hit value much recently at this current evaluation, so I'm not sure we need to do it today.

The three big men are very intriuging as well. A three-game slate is where I want to target someone like . Valanciunas played 26 minutes in one meeting against the Warriors last year scoring 12 points and grabbing nine rebounds. and are intriguing as well because they don't have to deal with defense. It makes sense theoretically that we would see both guys over 30 minutes because of the "small ball" lineup Golden Stats generally uses.

just seems more comfortable coming off the bench as he's twice gone over 29 fantasy points over his last three games. I already mentioned how poor Golden Stats is at defending point-guards and since this is a GPP slate only. This game has a nine-point spread, so it ends up blowing out, you have an advantage over the field because VanVleet likely gets blowout minutes as well.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Sacramento Kings

Total: 235

SAC +2

Clippers

The only thing I'm worried about is a back-to-back, but they have an elite matchup with the Kings as they rank 20th in defensive efficiency this season. I really like the guards in this matchup for the Clippers, specifically who went 13/7/6 in just 29 minutes on Wednesday night. The Kings also rank 26th in the league against the shooting-guard position, so and his elite scoring capabilities are good for tournaments.

Jon mentioned it on the podcast, but is insanely safe and he flashed that once again last night going for 55. He's now gone for at least 37 DK points in four of his last five games and yet his price hasn't risen one bit. has failed to dip below 30 fantasy points over his last 10 games and gets a juicy matchup against the 25th ranked team against centers, which is where Harrell has spent 94-percent of his floor time at. is a very safe, secure option each and every night.

is way to athletic for and (who's questionable) so expect a lot of Harrell at center. That said, if Boban starts, we should be considering him based on price tag. One more guy I'd consider -- only because it's a three game slate -- is and that's because he's played 30-plus minutes in four straight games.

Kings

This game is going to be played at an insanely fast pace which bodes well for the Kings who rank second in pace amongst all teams in the league. The best matchups for the Kings are at the point-guard and center positions according to DvP where the Clippers rank 24th and 27th respectively. That means right off the bat we should be looking at and . Fox has flashed elite upside in the past and although he hasn't been very consistent of late the matchup is ideal. I know the minutes haven't been ideal, but he's had a few tough matchups and the Kings don't really have much depth to keep the low minutes total up.

It's very hard to ignore what Marvin Bagley has been doing of late notching 26 or more fantasy points in five straight games while flashing 40-plus upside as well. The minutes have been the most encouraging thing going up over 26 in those last five games as well. Since we're talkng about minutes, 's minutes are on the rise as he got all the way up to 33 in his last game as he went for 20 actual points and 30 DK. He's going to be very popular at the price tag, so the contrarian play would be , who Sac-Town loves playing because of his elite defense. We know can fill it up on occasion as well, so he's in play too.

Indiana Pacers @ Los Angeles Lakers

Total: 218.5

LAL -5

Pacers

is officially listed as doubtful, so here we go again with the Pacers value. If Oladipo plays, we don't need to play the 's and ' of the world, but if he doesn't, we have to consider them on three-game slates. When he's sat, the Pacers have had three consistent performers in , and . Sabonis has a 26.2-percent usage rate to go along with 1.52 FP/min without Oladipo on the floor and has been over 40 fantasy points in four of his last six games. Turner has been an elite shot blocker for quite a while blocking two or more shots in 10 straight contests. He's also been scoring and rebounding at much better clip averaging 13.5 points and 7.5 rebounds -- both up from his season averages -- over his last four games.Bogdanovic is just safe as his price tag seemingly never rises.

We saw ' upside the first game Oladipo went down and we haven't seen it since. There's a great chance that this is the slate it happens. It's only a three-gamer, why not take a risk or two? doesn't play enough minutes for me to consider him as I'd prefer playing over both Holiday and Corey Joseph. has found his shot the last week or do as he's scored 20-plus actual points in back-to-back games and at least 15 points in three of four. He has a role with this team and as long as his shot is falling, he is decent value.

Lakers

I'm really not interested in this Lakers team right now, especially with how they're playing. is not paying off his price tag more often than he is and he's the most expensive player on this slate. I am, however, interested in whoever starts at point-guard if sits. I know theoretically they could just start LBJ at point-guard kind of like the 76ers when they start , but if it was someone like or , they're priced so fairly that we'd have to consider them.

Out of the rest of the team, catches my eye the most as a primary play. Indiana is fairly weak at defending power-forwards ranking 20th in DvP and Kuzma is coming off back-to-back 21 acual point games. is consistently seeing 30 minutes, so if he can get it going offensively he's very viable as well. Other than that, I'm truly looking elsewhere.

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