Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Total: 205.5 / CLE -5.5

 

This series is all knotted up at two headed back to Cleveland for Game 5. LeBron James played the role of Superman, like he has so many times before, scoring 32 points, grabbing 13 rebounds and dishing out seven assists in the four point victory. The 205.5 game total we have here seems high if we look at the results of this series thus far. Not a single game of the four have surpassed 204 and three of them have been under 200. The total seems like Vegas respecting guys such as LeBron James, Kevin Love, Victor Oladipo and Bojan Bogdanovic (LOL) more than they probably should.

 

Game Play Predictions

Indiana Pacers

  • Indiana ranks 15th out of 16 playoff teams in points scored per game (96.8). Cleveland is last.

  • Indiana has allowed the fewest points per game this postseason (93.5).

  • Bojan Bogdanovic is averaging 15.8 points per game in four playoff games and that’s up 1.5 PPG from the regular season. He’s also upped his three-point attempts from 4.8 to 6.5.

  • Indiana is tied for 5th this postseason with 8.8 steals per game.

  • Victor Oladipo ranks 1st in points (22.3), first in steals (2.3), second in assists (5.5), second in blocks (.75) and third in rebounds amongst all Pacers this postseason.

  • Indiana is tied with the Cavaliers for the slowest pace amongst all teams in the postseason → 93.5.

  • Victor Oladipo is tied with Russell Westbrook for the most fast break points per game with 6.0.

  • Myles Turner is averaging 14.8 points per game this postseason compared to 12.7 during the regular season. Cleveland ranked 16th in DvP against centers this year.

  • Thaddeus Young has scored 87.2-percent of his points in these playoffs inside of the paint, which ranks him second amongst all qualified players.

  • Lance Stephenson has a higher usage rate this postseason than Chris Paul, Bradley Beal, Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.

 

Players to Watch

Victor Oladipo - This is the pivotal game of the series and the Cavs defense is and has been explotable all year long. He’s Indiana’s best player and will have his ball in his hands more often than he doesn’t.

Bojan Bogdanovic - We’ve already seen when Bogdanovic is hot, he can score in bunches. He scored 30 in Game 3 and hit seven three-pointers during that contest as well.

Lance Stephenson - He’s been capped at around 25 minutes it seems, but he has a 26-percent usage rate meaning he’s possessing the ball a lot here. He could be the key recipe Indiana needs tonight.

Myles Turner - Larry Nance Jr. is really foul happy and Kevin Love isn’t a good enough defender to stop Turner offensively if he has it going. Turner’s shooting percentages are way up this postseason from two-point and three-point land.

Thaddeus Young - Young has been scrappy this series leading Indiana in rebounding and has posted two double-digit rebounding outputs already. Cleveland ranks 13th in rebounding this postseason, so Young should continue to exploit them on the glass.


 

Cleveland Cavaliers

  • LeBron James leads Cleveland in points (32.5), rebounds (11.8), assists (8.0) and blocks (1.0) this postseason.

  • Only Kevin Love (12.0) and J.R. Smith (10.0) are scoring in double-figures for Cleveland other than LeBron James.

  • Cleveland is taking the third most three-pointers per game this postseason but are the third worst percentage wise from beyond the arc.

  • Cavaliers rank 15th in offensive rating this postseason only ahead of the Spurs.

  • Cleveland ranked third in the entire league in effective field goal percentage during the regular season at 54.7-percent, but ranks 10th this postseason with a 51.1-percent mark.

  • Kevin Love shot 45.8-percent from the field in the regular season and is shooting 36.2-percent in the playoffs.

  • Only three players on the Cavs are playing north of 22 minutes per game this postseason (James, Love, Smith) but seven others are playing in between 19 and 21 (Larry Nance, Jordan Clarkson, Rodney Hood, Jeff Green, Kyle Korver, George Hill)

  • 26 of JR Smith’s 39 postseason field goal attempts this postseason have come from beyond the three-point arc (66.7-percent).

 

Players to Watch

LeBron James - He’s the best player in the world, he’s averaging just .5 points less than Anthony Davis for the postseason lead and this game could change the outlook on the entire series. No reason to think James doesn’t show up in a big way here.

Kevin Love - Love has been terrible, but Indiana ranked 26th against centers this year, a position Love is spending a ton of time at with Tristan Thompson out of the rotation. He’s better than the 36-percent he’s shot this series and is poised for a breakout game.

Kyle Korver - In both of Cleveland’s wins this series, Korver has played at least 26 minutes and has made at least four three-point attempts. In losses, the Cavs have played him four and 20 minutes.

JR Smith - Smith, like Korver, is hitting the three-ball. He’s one of three Cavs players to average north of 10 points per game. The Cavs need a secondary scorer for LeBron James bad and it could be Smith if his first couple of shots fall.