Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers
Total: 209 / IND -1
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs are a really hard team to trust in DFS right now outside of LeBron James. Nobody outside of James and Kevin Love are averaging more than 20 DK points per game. James has 17 assists in the two games and yet, nobody has truly benefited from it. The analysis for the Cavs side is easy. James is an elite play, Love is a secondary play and it’s too hard to trust anybody else right now. If you’re desperate, maybe Larry Nance Jr. and Kyle Korver is Korver can knock down some shots early, he’ll see a majority of the run at shooting-guard.
Primary Play(s): LeBron James
Secondary Play(s): Kevin Love, Larry Nance Jr., Kyle Korver
Indiana Pacers
On the year, the Cavaliers rank 25th against point-guards, 22nd against shooting-guards and 29th against small-forwards. We can attack them at all three of these positions and quite frankly, everywhere else. They’re also in the bottom half of the league against power-forwards and centers as well, but they’re closer to the middle of the pack at those spots.
Victor Oladipo is where we’re going to start and that’s a given. Oladipo was great in Game 1 and was average in Game 2. He’s averaged 43.3 DK points per game in six games against Cleveland this year. Unless James guards Oladipo for the entire game -- which he won’t because it would burn him out -- the Cavs have nobody that can guard him. But his backcourt mate may be as solid of a play from a per-dollar basis. Darren Collison was great in Game 2 and essentially kept Indiana in the game in the fourth quarter. He’s been great against Cleveland the entire season averaging north of a fantasy point per minute (33.8 FP in 31.1 MPG).
Myles Turner has been really solid on the offensive end in this series averaging 17 points per game, but the lack of rebounds he grabs really limits his upside. He only has one block and two assists combined in two games, so Turner is a risky GPP option. Three more guys we should look at are Lance Stephenson, Bojan Bogdanovic and Thaddeus Young. Both Young and Bogdanovic have played 30-plus minutes in the first two games so obviously by just being on the floor allows them the chance to accrue a ton of stats. Stephenson saw a seven minute spike from 17 to 24 over the first two games. If Stephenson’s on, he could break the slate. If he’s bad, however, he could break your lineup.
Primary Option(s): Victor Oladipo, Darren Collison, Lance Stephenson
Secondary Option(s): Thaddeus Young, Bojan Bogdanovic, Myles Turner
Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards
Total: 218 / WAS -1.5
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors come into Game 3 as underdogs, surprisingly, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a ton of fantasy goodness here. Both of the first two games have posted at least 220 total points, both resulting in Raptors wins.
If we survey the Game 2 box score, it’s easy to like DeMar DeRozan after he snapped for 37 actual points. Scoring on the Wizards has been a regular thing for DeRozan this year as he’s averaged 26.5 actual and 42.3 DK points per contest over six meetings. The seven rebounds and 10 assists over the first two games are good to see as well seeing how DeRozan isn’t always someone who gives us peripheral stats to go along with the scoring.
Despite it being the playoffs and rotations shrink, the Raptors have six viable DFS candidates, including DeRozan. Kyle Lowry is a triple-double threat and John Wall’s defense since returning to the court hasn’t been the same. Although he’s still only averaging 23 minutes per game in the postseason, Jonas Valanciunas may be the best fantasy producer -- on a per minute basis -- in this entire game! Serge Ibaka has come alive too, missing his second consecutive double-double by one rebound last game.
C.J. Miles and Delon Wright are the wild cards here. Both become more of an option if Fred VanVleet doesn’t suit up. Wright has averaged 26 minutes and 30 DK points per contest over the first two. Miles’ shot has been on, hitting four three’s in both of the first two games and when he’s hot, he’s worth the tournament dart. Not to mention, Washington ranks dead last against small-forwards this season.
Primary Option(s): DeMar DeRozan, Delon Wright (if VanVleet sits), Jonas Valanciunas, Kyle Lowry
Secondary Option(s): Serge Ibaka, C.J. Miles
Washington Wizards
Whatever’s happened to Bradley Beal down the stretch of the year and into the postseason is not something I want to mess with. Beal’s shot under 43-percent six times over his last 10 games..obviously not good. John Wall, on the other hand, has been a DFS monster since returning from injury. He’s played six games since returning and has had nine assists or more in all six, including three straight 60 DK point games before Game 2 of the postseason. Despite the fact that Toronto ranks third in defensive efficiency against point-guards, Wall is as safe of a play at the position as they come.
The Wizards secondary options are a little bleak, but we need to find options somewhere seeing how it’s only a three-game slate. Otto Porter has really been impacted by John Wall’s return and is really hard to trust right now unless you’re stacking the Wizards, which would be a very contrarian move on this slate. It’s night and day with Markieff Morris and if we get the good Morris, he could win you a tournament.
The Wizards have went primarily small this postseason and Marcin Gortat played 12 minutes in Game 2 and Mike Scott played 27. Scott’s played 27 minutes in both the first two games and has been unstoppable on the offensive end going 7-for-10 in back-to-back games. If Scott is scoring at this rate, he’ll continue to see extended run and would be a primary option.
Ty Lawson and Kelly Oubre Jr. are the Wizards wild cards, which is seemingly something every team this postseason has. Lawson surprisingly saw 31 minutes in Game 2 and was productive scoring 14 points and dishing out eight assists. Who knows if he sees anywhere near that amount of time again, but if he does, he could give us 8-10x his salary. Oubre is similar to Lawson but he had more of a prevalent role with the Wizards throughout the entire season, obviously because Oubre was actually on the team. We saw him play more minutes than both Beal and Porter in Game 2, so the tournament upside is appealing.
Primary Play(s): John Wall, Mike Scott
Secondary Play(s): Ty Lawson, Kelly Oubre Jr., Markieff Morris, Otto Porter Jr.
Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks
Total: 205 / MIL -5
Boston Celtics
The Celtics have come out with a fire lit under their butts as they took the first two games of this series despite not many people giving them a chance. Al Horford has been the MVP of this series thus far averaging 20 points, 8.5 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals and 1.5 blocks per game. Attacking Bucks bigs was one of the locks of the year in DFS and that’s not going to change now. Horford is one of the best plays of the slate.
Terry Rozier, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are all great plays as well, despite the low total and the fact that Vegas made the Celtics underdogs. Rozier is averaging 40 DK points this series, Brown has averaged 25 actual points per game and Tatum has done a little bit of everything, posting two three-plus steal games while averaging 11.5 points and 8.5 rebounds. The Bucks have allowed 113 points or more in both of the games this series. Marcus Morris is also a very viable option as well. Morris has a 26.9-percent usage rate with Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart off of the floor this year so I’d consider all five of those guys are primary options.
Primary Option(s): Al Horford, Terry Rozier, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Marcus Morris
Secondary Option(s): Greg Monroe
Milwaukee Bucks
It’s kind of mind boggling to see Giannis Antetokounmpo not be able to will his team to a victory versus an injured Celtics team. Antetokounmpo has been fantastic, however, and has been so against the Celtics all year long averaging 59 DK points per game in six meetings against them. He’s an elite play, especially knowing his team is on the ropes down 2-0 and he’s needed to do even more than he already has.
Where has Eric Bledsoe been? Because he hasn’t been involved in this series at all and that could partially be due to Terry Rozier on the defensive end as Rozier is a +1.0 DBPM this year. Bledsoe NEEDS to show up for the Bucks to have a shot in this series. Khris Middleton on the other hand has been excellent averaging 28 actual points per game in the series. The Celtics rank ninth in defensive efficiency against shooting-guards so Middleton has dominated this tough matchup.
Two of the better value options on the slate are Malcolm Brogdon and John Henson. Henson has played 37 minutes in both of the first two games and has been productive pouring in 26.5 and 27 DK points. Brogdon on the other hand played 32 minutes in Game 1, so he has that sort of upside here again.
Primary Play(s): Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, John Henson
Secondary Play(s): Eric Bledsoe, Malcolm Brogdon