Top Tier
Shane Bieber vs. SEA
The reigning American League Cy Young takes on an anemic Mariners offense on Sunday and could not be in a better spot. His K-rate is down from 41% to 34% this year, but 34% is still extremely elite. Speaking of strikeout rates, the Mariners have struck out 26.4% of the time, which is the fourth highest mark in baseball. It’s remained pretty consistent lately too, as Seattle’s K-rate is up over 27% the last two weeks. Bieber and the Indians are massive -240 favorites here.
Carlos Rodon vs. DET
The Tigers have been better offensively lately as they rank 15th in OPS over the last two weeks, but they’re still striking out a ton. Over that same span, the 26.2% K-rate they sport is the sixth highest in the league. They’ve had no answers for left-handed pitching, especially ranking 28th in both OPS and wOBA, 29th in wRC+ and strike out more than anybody else in the league at a tick below 30%. Enter Rodon who has a 37% K-rate and has punched out at least eight in four straight starts and you have a match made in heaven.
Mid Tier
Robbie Ray vs. BOS
As we saw from Steven Matz’s start on Saturday, the Red Sox are struggling offensively. They rank 25th in OPS over the last two weeks and play host to a 24.7% K-rate. Ray, on the flipside, is coming in white hot as he struck out 13 his last time out and has nine or more strikeouts in three of his last five starts. If Ray follows Steven Matz’s gameplan here, he could be in for another big start.
Pablo Lopez vs. ATL
The stigma that the Braves offense is good probably keeps ownership low here and I’m here to tell you that’s a mistake. Most people will look at Ray and Valdez in this tier -- and that’s more than OK too -- but if you want a pivot look no further. ATL ranks 21st in OPS and 22nd in wOBA over the last two weeks. Even more appealing is the fact that they’re striking out 27.7% of the time over that span, which is the second highest rate in the league. Lopez is coming off a start in which he twirled eight innings of two-run baseball while striking out eight. The strikeouts are up, too, as he’s punched out eight or more in three-of-four starts.
Frambar Valdez vs. MIN
This guy has been electric since returning from injury. There’s no other way to describe it. He’s thrown seven or more innings in two of the three starts he’s made and has failed to allow more than one run in any of the three. He’s bolstered a 29% K-rate as well, which is a career-high mark. Despite being on the road, Valdez and the Astros are -135 favorites in this game. Yes Minnesota’s offense has warmed up, but Valdez has the goods to cool them all the way down.
Value Tier
Johnny Cueto vs. WAS
The Nationals have been a really offensive unit lately, ranking 29th in OPS and wRC+ and tied for 28th in wOBA over the last two weeks. The Nats have scored more than two runs over their last five games. Cueto is coming into this game pitching well, allowing three earned runs or less in four-of-five starts. He’s a value on FanDuel and more of a mid-tier option on DraftKings. I love him for tournaments on Sunday.
Bruce Zimmermann vs. TBR
The Rays offense has scuffled a bit lately, notching a .680 OPS as a team, ranking 22nd in the league. They’ve also struck out 26.2% of the time over that span and opposing them is Bruce Zimmermann who’s been flying under-the-radar of late. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in four-of-five starts while striking out six or more in four of them. He doesn’t have to navigate Camden Yards here either as he gets to pitch in one of the more friendly environments to pitchers in baseball on Sunday.