All About The Curve: Victims of MLB's Initiative

I mentioned in last week's Hot Corner video that the new crackdown on "sticky stuff" could affect your Fantasy Baseball team. Now, after the weekend, we have a little more data to work with. Let's review that data, but first, let's start with a review.

What's the deal with all this talk about "sticky stuff?"

It's long been a tradition- whether it's pine tar, rosin, or even boiled Coca- Cola, for a pitcher to use a little sticky substance to help his grip on the baseball. Weather conditions, sweat- all these things can alter the grip on the ball, and, of course, a pitcher would like to have as much consistency as possible with his delivery. For generations, this has been allowed, despite the fact that MLB rules specifically disallow it and even threaten a ten-game suspension. And for the most part- no one cared. I mean, after all, batters get to use pine tar, and let's face it- they don't want a pitcher losing their grip so that they end up with a 97 mile per hour heater to the jaw. But now, with advanced analytics and data, it's pretty clear "sticky stuff" isn't just being used for grip. It's being used to create all kinds of spin. The type of spin that can earn you a 300 million dollar contract. Not only that, this spin and the rash of no-hitters is likely also contributing to the abysmal league batting average of only .237. It seems perhaps the old standbys of sunscreen and dirt have evolved into substances such as Spider Tack and, for all I know, maybe that old Conair aerosol Hairpsrpay from the 1980's. MLB is in the middle of yet another cheating scandal. Or- is it? After all, even Nolan Ryan admitted it's part of the game. And, I mean, I still like to see a no-hitter now and then. But, if umpires are now asked to "crack down" on this - as the story goes- will we be seeing studs like Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer suddenly lose a tick on their fastball? Will their spin rate be less- "spinny" or "spin- effecient" as the Statcast goes. And more importantly, how does this affect your Fantasy Baseball team? Well, I suspect we will see some pitchers that have suddenly had breakouts in 2021 come back down to earth. And not because they have been using gorilla glue for a hair gel, but because they may be afraid to really use ANYTHING depending on how the league proceeds. Theory goes, the longer the ball stays in contact with a pitcher's fingers, the more spin force will be on the ball. So Without the sticky stuff, we could see some pretty big changes. So, what adjustments can you make as a fantasy baseball manager? Well, besides stashing surging bats since I expect pitchers will be more hittable, and probably hitters will be more hittable, too- I think we better keep an eye out- and if we start to see a pattern, consider making a trade.

It's still very early, and these are small sample sizes, but let's take a look at three starting Top Ten pitchers who had their worst starts of the year over the weekend.   

Shane Bieber - Bieber allowed ten hits, two home runs, and five earned runs vs. the Seattle Mariners. Yes, the same Seattle Mariners that have allowed two no-hitters, have the third-highest strike-out rate in the league, and have the league-worst batting average (.209). The good news is, he still struck out eight batters. A closer look reveals Bieber's curveball was down 300 RPM, and his slider was down 150 RPM. This was Bieber's worst start since 2019, so it's worth noting. Keep an eye on your Ace. 

Corbin Burnes - After starting the season with a record 58 strike-outs before his first walk, Burnes has lost some of that control over the last few weeks. But this weekend's start was notable because he couldn't make it past the fourth inning. Over only four frames, Burnes walked three batters and allowed eight hits and three home runs- the Pittsburgh Pirates. Yes, the same Pittsburgh Pirates that look more like the Pirates of Penzance- forgetting about force-plays at first base and actually touching the bases when running the base path. The Pirates are batting only .228 on the season and walk only 8% of the time, but they got to Burnes quickly. Burns's best pitch is the cutter, and it was down 163 RPM. Good news? Burns struck out eight batters across the four innings.   

And finally, Trevor Bauer. 

Bauer got lit up by the Texas Rangers. The Rangers are batting .230, have the 8th highest strike-out rate in the league, and have put up an average of fewer than four runs per game in 2021. But on Saturday, Bauer allowed nine hits and four earned runs to the Texas club. The Dodgers ultimately lost to the Rangers 12-1. Upon inspection, the spin-rate on Bauer's four-seamer was down 166 RPM, and his cutter was down 123 RPM. Good news? Bauer, just like Burns and Bieber, also struck out eight. 

It's very early days, and the sample size is small, but it certainly appears as if some of our elite pitchers could be affected by this new "sticky" crackdown. All three of these aces faced terrible teams that should have been easy matchups, and all three of these aces lost RPM on their pitches. However, interestingly, all three of these pitchers also struck out exactly eight batters. So, the good news is- it seems they could still maintain their strike-out capability even if their control suffers. Those shiny ERA's and WHIPs, though... they could fade. Is it finally time for the hitters to take center stage? Only time will tell...