We are one-third of the way through the 2021 fantasy baseball season, which is just about the same amount of games as the entire 2020 season. As of today, about 55 games have been played. I think it's the perfect time to go back and hold myself accountable. For the next two editions of All About The Curve, I am going to review my Covid Rebound article from the Jim Bowden draft guide, and see how my picks are doing. My predictions were based on a 162 game season, factoring in that players will have natural ebbs and flows to their game. That's part of the beauty of baseball. Hot streaks and cold streaks that, in the end, we believe we can average out to be "dependable." Let's see how the first 50-55 stack up to 2020 so far. Here goes...
What I said then
Moncada batted .225 with six home runs, 24 RBI, and ZERO stolen bases in 231 plate appearances in 2020. Not exactly what managers hoped for when they went into their drafts; however, though Moncada played the entire season, it seems he never fully recovered from the longer-lasting side effects of Covid-19 which he had contracted in July. Moncada reported lingering muscle soreness and fatigue which would explain quite a lot of the regression we saw- especially the reduced exit velocity and zero stolen base attempts. The good news? His eye improved in 2020, and so did his statistically scouted speed. Coming off a strong 2019 campaign where he batted .317 with 27 home runs, 88 runs, 84 RBI, and 10 extra bags, I think we have to give Moncada a pass. He's currently falling to the eighth round in early NFBC drafts. I'll be taking the value on this young third baseman with power/speed potential hitting in what should be one of the most potent and competitive lineups in the game.
What's happening now
Well, the counting stats look pretty similar. Moncada has four home runs, 28 runs, and 29 RBI, but his .294 batting average is a big improvement. Also, his walk rate is a phenomenal 16.8%, which is in the top three percent of the league. His max exit velo is in the 81st percentile, and his xWoba is in the 92nd- in other words, Yoán Moncada is trending up. During the month of May, Moncada batted .313 with a .455 OBP. Over the course of the 162 game season, I expect numbers closer to 2019 than 2020.
Austin Meadows , OF Tampa Bay Rays
What I said then
His 2020 debut was late due to a Covid-19 diagnosis, and quite simply, it looks like he fell off a cliff after his spectacular 2019 campaign. In 152 plate appearances, Meadows batted a measly .205 with four home runs, 19 runs, 13 RBI, and two stolen bases. It was clear Meadows never felt right, nor did he have the time to really get into shape before rejoining the big club, which also likely contributed to the strained oblique that frequently limited him in September. Throughout his career, Meadows has consistently shown a power/speed combo. He is young, he plays on a competitive team, and he's currently fallen to the end of the 7th round in NFBC draft. Can he return to 2019 numbers- 33 homers, 83 R, 89 RBI, and 12 extra bags? Survey says: buy it.
What's happening now
Is it too early to take a victory lap on this one? I regret I actually ended up with zero shares of Austin Meadows this year. FAIL. Meadows still isn't batting for average the way he should, but he has already launched 12 long balls and has 30 runs and 37 RBI in 50 games- that's on pace for 39 home runs, 97 runs, and 120 RBI. Now obviously, on-pace data is in a perfect world and highly unlikely, but I think it is safe to say these 50 games have been far better than last year's 36. Meadows has increased his walk rate to a career-high 13.3%, while having a barrel rate in the top 20% of the league. I would like to see Meadows run more, as the power- speed combo is why many drafted him, but with these kind of power numbers and the fact that you probably got him in the sixth round, who can complain?
Jack Flaherty , SP St. Louis Cardinals
What I said then
Looking at the numbers from 2020, Jack Flaherty 's 4.91 ERA and 4-3 record don't look like the stuff of an ace, but if we break it down further, we find that inflated ERA was due mostly to one huge blowup vs. MIL mid -September. Flaherty didn't show his best stuff in the shortened season, but his bad games alternated with excellent ones, and I'm willing to chalk this up to a shortened summer camp. The good news: Even with the inflated ERA, Flaherty induced a whiff rate that was in the 88th percentile of the league, and a strikeout rate in the 76th percentile of the league - striking out nearly 11 batters per nine innings in 2020. Flaherty has had no known health issues, and he pitches in what is expected to be a weaker NL Central division. He'll see lots of matchups with the Pirates, Brewers, and the Cubs. Given the longer season and a full Spring Training, I expect Flaherty to return to a 3.50 ERA and 200+ strikeouts.
What's happening now
So far, so good! Flaherty's ERA is a sparkling 2.90, and he's striking out batters at a rate of nearly ten per nine innings, while keeping the walks under control. He's giving up an average of only one home run per nine innings, and he's got eight wins to only one loss. Unfortunately, he's also getting hit harder this year than ever before, so I expect this ERA will inflate by the end of the year. The good news is, he still plays in a weak central division. Flaherty is one to keep an eye on.
Christian Yelich , OF Milwaukee Brewers
What I said then
Ouch. This one hurt. Likely one of the top three picks in your draft last year, this slump was… costly. But, here's why I am buying back in for 2021: though Yelich posted a career-low average (.205) and OBP (.356), he also posted career highs for walk rate and exit velocity. His walk rate was in the 98th percentile, his hard-hit rate was in the 98th percentile, and his exit velocity was in the 99th percentile of the league. It's tough to recover from a 1-27 start, but in a 162- game season, it would look like more of a blip than a blow. Yelich is a career .296 hitter and, after all, even with the slow start last year, he still delivered 12 home runs and four stolen bases for his fantasy baseball managers. Yelich plays in a hitter-friendly home park in what is expected to be a weaker division. He's currently going at the end of the 1st round in most NFBC drafts. I'm more than happy to take another chance on his power/speed combo for 2021.
What's happening now
Ouch- it still hurts. Yelich has only played in 22 games this year. Nagging injuries have chipped away at his value. He's batting .254 across those 22 games, which is certainly better than the .205 from 2020, but isn't what we expect from a hitter of his caliber. Yelich finally went yard for the first time last week, and he has 16 runs and four stolen bases on the season. Interestingly, the power numbers he showed from last year are way down, but the four stolen bases in 22 games match the four stolen bases he had in 58 games of 2020. Could Yelich end up being a speed value? Luckily, Yelich's max exit velocity is still in the top 5% of the league, so as long as he can remain healthy, he should only go up from here. Unfortunately, it will be difficult, though not impossible, for Yelich to return the late first-round/early second-round value we invested.