As the official start of the fantasy baseball season quickly approaches, we’re all knee deep into our draft prep. Hopefully we’re all devising a draft strategy that will allow us to create a fantasy baseball roster capable of winning a championship.
At the same time many of us are also developing a list of “our guys”. These are our must have players that we’ll be targeting in our drafts.
Most of us who’ve been playing fantasy sports for a while know that each draft is different and no matter how much we plan or prepare for our draft, there’s always a chance that something is going to go wrong. For instance, perhaps we might mysteriously lose power and we’ll need to bang on our neighbors door and beg them for the password to their WiFi account. Or, we could get sniped. Someone can draft one of our guys!! It is allowed, you know.
Well, we’re here to tell you that if you’re familiar with the player pool, you’ll be able to easily find a replacement for the player that you originally planned on drafting…in the later rounds of your draft.
To illustrate, we’ve prepared a list of highly sought after baseball players, along with their fantasy doppelgangers. We’re talking about guys who are available in the later rounds of your draft, but can provide the same type of fantasy production as the player who was drafted several rounds before.
For the purpose of this article the Average Draft Position (ADP) we’ll be using will be from the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) leagues as of the morning of February 12th, 2020. We’ll be using Steamer Projections in our prediction models when it comes to anticipated player 2020 statistics. We’ll also provide the round in which the players listed below were drafted in the recent 2020 League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) experts draft.
Catcher
Willson Contreras , Cubs, ADP: 118.64
Round selected in LABR draft: 9th
2019 Batting Statistics:.272 BA, 24 HR, 64 RBI
Steamer 2020 Projection:257 BA, 16 HR, 56 RBI
Jorge Alfaro , Marlins, ADP: 212
Round selected in LABR draft: 14th
2019 Batting Statistics:.262 BA, 18 HR, 57 RBI
Steamer 2020 Projection: .243 BA, 14 HR, 48 RBI
There’s no doubt that Contreras is a better fantasy catcher than Alfaro. However, if you’re drafting in a one catcher league and put off filling the position until the later rounds, Alfaro can provide you with solid offensive production. His 18 home runs and 43.7 % hard hit rate were career highs. Steamer may have short changed Alfaro with their projected .243 BA. He has a lifetime .266 BA in 898 career ABs.
First Base
Anthony Rizzo , Cubs, ADP: 65.36
Round selected in LABR draft:4th
2019 Batting Statistics:.293 BA, 27 HR, 94 RBI, 5 SB
Steamer Projection: .284 BA, 32 HR, 99 RBI, 6 SB
Trey Mancini , Orioles, ADP: 103.72 *also eligible in the OF
Round selected in LABR draft:8th
2019 Batting Statistics:.291 BA, 35 HR, 97 RBI
Steamer Projection:.272 BA, 30 HR, 90 RBI, 1 SB
Rizzo is still in the prime of his career and he’s poised to have another solid season, but Mancini is sometimes overlooked simply because he plays on a bad Orioles team. He cut down on his strikeouts and walked more last season, and has the luxury of playing his home games in hitter friendly Camden Yards.
Second Base
Eduardo Escobar , Diamondbacks, ADP: 118.70 *also eligible at 3B
Round selected in LABR draft: 10th
2019 Batting Statistics:.269 BA, 35 HR, 118 RBI, 5 SB
Steamer Projection: .257 BA, 25 HR, 87 RBI, 4 SB
Michael Chavis , Red Sox, ADP 236.04 *also eligible at 1B
Round selected in LABR draft: 21st
2019 Batting Statistics:.254 BA, 18 HR, 58 RBI, 2 SB (382 PA)
Steamer Projection: .249 BA, 21 HR, 65 RBI, 3 SB
Escobar is a nice player, but if you want to roster him you’re going to have to pay a high premium based on last season’s elite power production. Look for his 15.2 HR/FB rate to regress a bit as his home run total falls somewhere into the mid to upper 20 range. Chavis got off to a good start last season but a shoulder and oblique injury slowed him down in the second half, and eventually caused his season to end prematurely. He has to cut down on his strikeouts, but if he stays healthy Chavis still has the potential to hit upwards of 30 home runs this season, despite Steamers modest projections.
Shortstop
Marcus Semien , A’s,ADP: 87.61
Round selected in LABR draft: 7th
2019 Batting Statistics:.285 BA, 33 HR, 92 RBI, 10 SB
Steamer Projection: .269 BA 25 HR, 79 RBI, 12 SB
Didi Gregorious, Phillies, ADP: 204.87
Round selected in LABR draft: 14th
2019 Batting Statistics:.238 BA, 16 HR, 61 RBI, 2 SB (344 PA)
Steamer Projection: .259 BA, 24 HR, 70 RBI, 6 SB
Semien finally enjoyed a full-fledged breakout season in 2019. His walk and strikeout rate both improved greatly, and his .285 BA was a career high. Semien hit 33 home runs last season (another career high) compared to just 15 in 2018. While his hard hit rate increased in 2019 compared to 2018, his exit velocity and launch angle did not. Could we expect a bit of home run regression, especially if the baseball isn’t as juicy as it was last season? Gregorious missed a big chunk of the 2019 season recovering from TJ surgery, but batted .277 and averaged 24 home runs and 81 RBI between 2016 and 2018. He’ll be playing in a good hitter’s ballpark, and for a manager he knows well. Look for a nice bounce back season.
Third Base
Eugenio Suárez , Reds, ADP: 61.61
Round selected in LABR draft: 5th
2019 Batting Statistics:.271 BA, 49 HR, 103 RBI, 3 SB
Steamer Projection: .253 BA, 35 HR, 96 RBI, 3 SB
Miguel Sanó , Twins, ADP: 125.23
Round selected in LABR draft: 7th
2019 Batting Statistics:.247 BA, 34 HR, 79 RBI
Steamer Projection: .246 BA, 37 HR, 97 RBI, 1 SB
Despite the big gap between Suarez’s and Sano’s ADP, you can expect similar type of power production from these players. Sano’s inability to stay on the field and high strikeout rate are a bit of a concern, but he led baseball with a 52.7 percent hard hit rate last season. If he could avoid the injury bug, he has a good chance of hitting 40 plus home runs.
Outfielders
Austin Meadows , Rays, ADP: 35.99
Round selected in LABR draft: 3rd
2019 Batting Statistics:.291 BA, 33 HR, 89 RBI, 12 SB
Steamer Projection: .272 BA, 27 HR, 83 RBI, 14 SB
Tommy Pham , Padres, ADP: 72.23
Round selected in LABR draft: 5th
2019 Batting Statistics:.273 BA, 21 HR, 68 RBI, 25 SB
Steamer Projection: .271 BA, 25 HR, 76 RBI, 18 SB
Pham’s high ground ball rate (50.8 lifetime) may limit his home run production, but he has still hit at least 21 home runs in the three seasons in which he’s come to the plate a minimum of 444 times. Ball players like Meadows and Pham who can potentially provide 20/20 home run/stolen base production are increasingly hard to find these days. There were nine last season.
Andrew Benintendi , Red Sox, ADP: 109.16
Round selected in LABR draft: 6th
2019 Batting Statistics:.266 BA, 13 HR, 68 RBI, 10 SB
Steamer Projection: .273, 19 HR, 79 RBI, 13 SB
Lorenzo Cain , Brewers, ADP: 186.18
Round selected in LABR draft: 9th
2019 Batting Statistics:.260 BA, 11 HR, 48 RBI, 18 SB
Steamer Projection: .277, 16 HR, 65 RBI, 19 SB
Perhaps Benintendi will never develop the 30 plus home run power as some had expected. The 2019 season was a tough one for Benintendi as he battled injuries, and he struck out a bit more as well. His hard hit rate did increase by just over 10% last season and if that trend continues, maybe more of the 81 doubles he hit over the last two seasons will eventually turn into home runs. Until then, maybe he’ll provide fantasy players with the same type of fantasy production that Lorenzo Cain is projected to provide.
Eddie Rosario , Twins, ADP: 92.34
Round selected in LABR draft: 9th
2019 Batting Statistics:.276, 32 HR, 109 RBI, 3 SB
Steamer Projection: .284, 30 HR, 102 RBI, 5 SB
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Blue Jays, ADP:157.75
Round selected in LABR draft: 11th
2019 Batting Statistics:.277 BA, 20 HR, 50 RBI, 6 SB (343 PA)
Steamer Projection: .265 BA, 27 HR, 84 RBI, 8 SB
Gurriel Jr. is an up and coming potential fantasy stud who after toiling in the infield for a bit, seems to have found a home in the Blue Jays outfield. He should benefit from playing his home games in the hitter friendly Rogers Centre and his 34 home run, 92 RBI 162 game average demonstrates that his power is for real.
Avisaíl García , Brewers, ADP: 237.01
Round selected in LABR draft: 13th
2019 Batting Statistics:.282, 20 HR, 72 RBI, 10 SB
Steamer Projection: .269, 21 HR, 70 RBI, 6 SB
David Peralta , Diamondbacks, ADP: 260.61
Round selected in LABR draft: 18th
2019 Batting Statistics:.275 BA, 12 HR, 57 RBI (423 PA)
Steamer Projection: .279, 22 HR, 77 RBI, 3 SB
Garcia and Peralta have fantasy value in fantasy baseball leagues that require you to start five outfielders. Garcia has shown that he can hit for average and has moderate power. As a 28 year old who has a high career ground ball rate (46%), he’s unlikely to develop into a player who’ll regularly hit 30 plus home runs. Peralta was hampered by injuries last season but when healthy, can provide the same type of fantasy production as Garcia.
Starting Pitchers
Zack Greinke , Astros, ADP: 68.09
Round selected in LABR draft: 4th
2019 Pitching Statistics:18 Wins, 187 Ks, 2.93 ERA
Steamer Projection: 14 Wins, 180 Ks, 4.27 ERA
*Three year average ERA: 3.11
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Max Fried , Braves, ADP: 141.38
Round selected in LABR draft: 10th
2019 Pitching Statistics:17 Wins, 173 Ks, 4.02 ERA
Steamer Projection: 12 Wins, 178 Ks 3.60 ERA
One of these days, age and drop in velocity are going to catch up with Greinke. For now, we’ll just watch Greinke continue to pitch like an ace. Fried is an ace in the making. He features an above average ground ball rate and he strikes out better than a batter per inning. This is probably the last season that Fried will be a moderately priced fantasy baseball commodity.
Madison Bumgarner , Diamondbacks, ADP: 121.80
Round selected in LABR draft: 7th
2019 Pitching Statistics: 9 Wins, 3.90 ERA, 203 Ks
Steamer Projection: 11 Wins, 4.50 ERA, 192 Ks
*Three year average ERA: 3.57
Marcus Stroman , Mets, ADP: 216.77
Round selected in LABR draft: 16th
2019 Pitching Statistics: 10 Wins, 3.22 ERA, 159 Ks
Steamer Projection: 11 Wins, 3.90 ERA, 154 Ks
Bumgarner has traditionally been more of a strikeout pitcher than Stroman. However, according to Steamer, Bumgarner is projected to throw 199 innings, and Stroman is expected to throw 179 innings in 2020. That projection partially explains the extra wide variance between the projected strikeout totals between these two pitchers. Bumgarner may not be the same dominant pitcher from a few years back, but he’s not done. While Stroman’s ERA and WHIP actually rose once he was traded to the Mets, he should benefit from pitching in the NL and in pitcher friendly Citi Field for an entire season.
Relief Pitchers
Aroldis Chapman , Yankees, ADP: 86.27
Round selected in LABR draft: 7th
2019 Pitching Statistics: 37 Saves, 2.21 ERA
Steamer Projection: 34 Saves, 3.01 ERA
Alex Colomé , White Sox, ADP: 161.56
Round selected in LABR draft: 11th
2019 Pitching Statistics: 30 Saves, 2.80 ERA
Steamer Projection: 31 Saves, 4.24 ERA
*Three year average ERA: 3.08
Chapman has been one of the premier closers in the game of baseball for the past several years. Despite Steamer projecting that he’ll pitch to a 4.24 ERA, Colome has enjoyed success as a big league closer. His three year average ERA is a very respectable 3.08 and with the improvements that the White Sox have made to their roster, Colome could get plenty of save opportunities this season.