MLB Streaks & Trends: April 19

Since our last column there have been some interesting streaks that have been extended and extinguished.

Indians starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco shut out the Mariners on Wednesday, putting an end to their 20 game home run hitting streak. Not surprisingly, the Mariners lead MLB in home runs (45). Jay Bruce leads the team with eight home runs and is hitting a dinger every 8.5 at-bats. He’s not going to keep up that pace but based on his career norms, if he’s healthy and continues to get regular at-bats he should hit at least 20 more  the rest of the season. Bruce’s .176 batting average is ugly and concerning, especially since he batted just .223 last season. However, if Bruce finds a way to hit close to his .246 career batting average the rest of the way, his power bat could help a fantasy team witha deep roster of high batting average hitters. 

A.J. Pollock ’s three-run home run on Wednesday extended the Dodgers’ home, home run hitting streak to 32 games. Like last season, the Dodgers have hit the second most home runs in baseball in 2019 and are a fantasy friendly offense you should want a piece of. Alex Verdugo is owned in just over 12 percent of ESPN fantasy baseball leagues and has been seeing increased playing time of late. He’s swinging a hot bat(.372/.386/.698, 1.084 OPS)and has taken advantage of his playing time. Keep him on your watch list.

Rays outfielder Tommy Pham ’s 48 game consecutive on-base streak ended Wednesday. Many fantasy baseball players and analysts expected big things from Pham this season, buthis stats have been disappointing. His five stolen bases are extremely valuable, however his .246/.375/.338 triple slash are way below expectations. According to MLB’s Statcast, Pham’s stock may be on the rise. Per their advanced metrics, Pham’s Expected Batting Average (xBA) is.277, his Expected Sluggingpercentage is .436, and his .376 Expected wOBA is .050 points higher than his current average. Buy low if you can.

As for another streak that came to an end this week, Reds first baseman Joey Votto popped out to first base for the first time in 6829 plate appearances. Fear not, his streak of never popping out to a catcher or pitcher is still intact. However, there are concerns regarding his current and future fantasy value.

Votto’s stats have been trending downward since last season. From 2008 through 2017 he posted a .313 batting average and averaged 30 home runs. Since 2018 (560 at-bats) he’s batting just .279 and he’s hit 13 home runs. The lifetime .310 hitter is batting just .230this season and while we expect Votto’s overall numbers to improve,it seems his days as a prolific power hitting first baseman are behind him. Votto’s chase rate is at its highest level since 2016 and his current strikeout rate is the highest of his major league career. His current hard hit and barrel rate are also the lowest of his career. Fantasy baseball players expect power production from their corner infielders. Although he hit a home run hitting from the lead-off spot Thursday night, Vottojustdoesn’tappear to be that kind of fantasy baseball player anymore.

While Votto has had issues hitting home runs, the rest of the league is doing just fine when it comes to leaving the yard. We’re just a few weeks into the 2019 season, but the below statistics show a continued uptick in home run centric offensive production:

Batters are continuing to be more aggressive at the plate as evidenced by the increased strikeout rate detailed below. Hitters are also adjusting their approach so that they’re hitting more fly balls, and that’s resulting in higher home run and runs scored rates this season.ERA’s are suffering, but strikeout rates are increasing as a result:

One team unexpectedly bucking the trend in increased offensive production is the Colorado Rockies. Heading into Friday night’s action, as a team the Rockies have posted a .217/.275/.354 triple slash and a .629 OPS. This is coming from a team that has regularly provided DFS players with lots of chalk over the years. Injuries to players like Daniel Murphy , David Dahl and Ryan McMahon have definitely played a part in the Rockies offensive woes. The fact that they’ve played 13 of their first 19 games on the road is another determining factor. However,with Charlie Blackmon having yet to hit a home run this season, and streaky Ian Desmond struggling with a .161batting average, fantasy players have some legitimate concerns.

Why is Blackmon struggling? While his average exit velocity (83.5) is just under four mph lower than last season’s average (87.2), most of his other advanced metrics have not regressed. We’re only looking at a small sample size,but perhaps he’s simply in a slump. His infield fly ball percentage is unusually high (17.4) and his chase rate is a bit higher than his career rate. Those stats might indicate that his timing is off. Potentially more important is the fact that for his career Blackmon has a .085 point higher batting average at home compared to his road average and as mentioned earlier, the Rockies have played the majority of their games on the road this young season. If you find a league mate willing to trade Blackmon at a discount, make the deal.

As for Desmond, his 20 home run, 20 stolen base potential is always enticing on draft day, and over the years he’s become more of a perceived bargain as his ADP has fallen. However, as the following chart detailing some of his 2018 statisticssuggests, he was one of the streakiest players in fantasy baseball last season:

In reviewing his career stats, Desmond does hit LHP better than RHP (.278 vs. .258), but other than that, there doesn’t appear to be many other splits that provide an explanation for his extreme offensive fluctuations. He’s been dealing with some recent leg soreness that has forced him from the lineup for three straight games. Some speculate that the underlying injury could be the cause for his slow start.

However, if you’re a Desmond owner looking for a reason to believe he’s ready to go off on one of his hot streaks, there are encouraging signs.His xBA is .072 points higher than his current average, his BABIP is .101 points lower than his career average and he’s hitting line drives at the highest rate of his career. Those three stats suggest fantasy owners could be in store for a potential uptick in offensive productivity. Will Desmond put us through another roller coaster of a season?  Who is the real Ian Desmond ? Is the .297 or .181 batting average more reflective of his abilities? The world may never know, and fantasy owners may not have the time to find out the answers to those questions. Some may have to move on.

Overall, when it comes to the long term outlook regarding Rockies bats, there’s reason to have hope.Nolan Arenado has hit home runs in three of his last four games, Dahl and McMahon (two home runs Thursday night) are back, and Murphy is starting to take batting practice. You’ll likely be stacking Rockies bats in DFS lineups before long.

Let’s leave you with a couple of players who are trending upward.

When you have a .182 batting average like Jesse Winker does, your season probably can’t get much worse. Winker entered the season with a .299 career average in 402 big league at-bats. His current 27.9% line drive rate and extremely low .132 BABIP suggest he’s been hitting into some bad luck. Based on Statcast’s statistics,Winker could be considered a potential buy low candidate. Their advanced metrics have his xBA at .276. Winker is batting .290 with five home runs in his last nine games.

Scott Kingery is another player who should be on your watch list. He’s batting .480 with two home runs over his past eight games. He should continue getting regular at-bats in the short term as Phillies shortstop Jean Segura nurses his sore hamstring. Depending on your league rules Kingery may be eligible as an outfielder, shortstop or third baseman. If the Phillies end up trading César Hernández for a starting pitcher, Kingery could potentially end up as the team’s starting second baseman.