Fantasy Baseball Bullpen Report: Sticky Situations

There are several candidates for the Rangers’ closer role should Ian Kennedy eventually be traded but based on recent performances no one seems to really want the job. A Mariners reliever picked up his first save of the season and may see some more opportunities in the future. Sticky stuff remains in the news, and we’ve also identified another three relief pitchers who you can potentially stream in weekly leagues. Please enjoy this week’s Bullpen Report. 

Sticky Stuff and Spin Rates is a topic that we’ll keep an eye on in this column moving forward. We’re not looking to single out any specific player and not suggesting that he’s used or stopped using “sticky stuff”, but we’ve noticed that the average spin rates on the majority of Aroldis Chapman’s pitches has been decreasing since his May 23rd appearance against the White Sox. In his nine appearances beginning on May 23rd Chapman has a 6.14 ERA, and opposing hitters have a .300 BAA him. All three of the home runs Chapman has yielded and both saves he’s blown have taken place during the period beginning on May 23rd. Maybe Chapman’s decreasing spin rates are simply the result of his being in the middle of a slump. However, one thing that his recent downturn shows is that in general, it seems that increased spin rates could lead to better pitcher performance. 

Weekly Save Leaders 

Heading into Wednesday’s action four pitchers had recorded three saves over the past week. All four have a stronghold on their teams’ closers job and make for excellent fantasy baseball trade targets.

Craig Kimbrel, Cubs

Kimbrel has given up just two earned runs in his first 27 IP. He throws a four seamer and a curveball, and the latter has been especially effective this season. It’s helped increase his chase rate and it generates a whiff rate of 58.4 compared to 48.4 last season. As of the start of Wednesday’s action Kimbrel was second in the NL with 18 saves.

Josh Hader, Brewers

After a 2020 season in which he posted the highest barrel rate of his career and gave up an uncharacteristically high number of free passes (4.74 BB/9), things seem to have fallen back into place for Hader. Hader has gained just over a mph on his fastball, and he’s added his changeup back into his repertoire and it’s generating a 50 percent whiff rate.

Edwin Diaz, Mets

Diaz has cut his walk rate by more than half and has gained just over a mile per hour on his fastball (99.2 mph average) compared to last season. DFS players should note that he’s a better pitcher at home (1.63 ERA) compared to when he pitches on the road (4.15 ERA). Diaz’s slider has been highly effective (47.7 whiff rate, .146 BAA), but opposing batters have been getting around on his fastball (.264 BAA) this season.

Liam Hendriks, White Sox

Hendriks hardly ever seems to need a day off. He’s pitched both games of a double header twice this season. Despite posting increases in his HR/9 and barrel rate, Hendriks has compiled a 2.15 ERA and leads the AL with 18 saves. Opposing hitters are batting just .094 against his slider and it’s generating a 60.4 whiff rate. 

Weekly Holds Leaders

Heading into Wednesday’s action one pitcher recorded three holds and seven pitchers were credited with two holds each last week. Let’s focus on a couple of those pitchers who haven’t yet been covered in this column.

Aaron Loup, Mets, 3

The Mets bullpen had a rough week, posting a 6.14 ERA. However, they were tied with the A’s and the Marlins for the most team holds (six). With a 1.93 ERA and 0.964 WHIP, Loup has a bright spot in the Mets’ bullpen. In four appearances last week he pitched 3.2 scoreless innings, struck out five batters and did not issue a walk. His changeup is generating a 43.8 whiff rate on the season. Loup has been added to our closer grid.

Seth Lugo, Mets, 2

Lugo had surgery to remove a bone spur from his pitching elbow and didn’t make his season debut until June 2nd. His debut was worth the wait. In his first six outings he’s pitched to a 1.17 ERA and 1.174 WHIP. Over the past week he recorded his first save of the season, held two games and struck out seven batters in 3.2 scoreless innings. In a small sample size Lugo has generated whiff rates of 54.5 and 50 on his four-seam fastball and slider, respectively.

Heath Hembree, Reds, 2

With Teejay Antone hitting the IL Hembree has been getting more high leverage relief opportunities. He made three relief appearances in the past week, striking out seven batters. Lucas Sims seems to have, at least temporarily, settled into the closer role for the Reds, but it appears that Hembree could be called upon to save a game from time to time should Sims be unavailable.

Bullpen News

Texas Rangers

Ian Kennedy has been reinstated from the IL. Josh Sborz, Joely Rodriguez, Brett Martin and Demarcus Evans could be in line for the Rangers’ closer role should Kennedy eventually be traded to a contender. However, none distinguished themselves as being the obvious choice while Kennedy was sidelined. The Rangers lost six of eight and didn’t record a save while Kennedy was on the IL.

Seattle Mariners

Drew Steckenrider picked up his first save since the 2018 season this past Monday. He has a 1.23 ERA in his last 12 appearances and has been added to our closer grid. He’ll probably get more save opportunities as the season progresses but it’s important to note that his lone save opportunity was likely due to Kendall Graveman (had pitched back-to-back days) and Rafael Montero (pitch count) being unavailable. Steckenrider’s seven career saves, and the instability of the Mariners bullpen make him someone to keep on your watchlist.

Relief Pitcher Streaming Options

In our last few columns, we’ve been featuring relief pitchers who typically work multiple innings per week who you can consider using in your weekly lineups in place of struggling starting pitchers who have tough matchups. The following three pitchers each posted a solid ERA and struck out at least seven batters over the past week. We’ve listed each pitcher’s overall season stats, as well as their stats for the past week. 

Trevor Richards, Brewers

One win, no losses, one hold, 4.15 ERA, .097 WHIP

Brad Bach, Reds

No wins or losses, two holds, 3.72 ERA, 1.45 WHIP 

Josh Taylor, Red Sox

No wins or losses, 3.63 ERA, 1.478 WHIP

If you've been a subscriber here at Fantasy Alarm, you've seen the Fantasy Baseball Closer Grid before. If you're new, it's very simple. We not only list who the closer is for each team, but we then go another two-deep into the bullpen to let you know who would be next in line to accrue saves should there be an injury or a change, as well as which relievers you may want to target if your league scores for holds. This isn't about how the teams' depth charts always reads, so keep that in mind. Sometimes the heir-apparent is an obvious one, but in many cases it is not. We look for things like skill set, contact rates, pitch-command, pitch-mix, how many lefties are in the bullpen, who has worked as a closer before and who has the experience in high-leverage situation among other things.

GREEN will be those with strong talent, abundant opportunities and a high-level of job security. The tier below will be in YELLOW followed by ORANGE and lastly RED to indicate who may have the job right now but could lose it with one bad hiccup. 

UPDATED: 6.17.2021