Bust. It’s the dirtiest, four-letter word in fantasy sports. There’s nothing worse than seeing your first-round pick labeled as a bust for the year. While it doesn’t necessarily mean you made some catastrophic mistake in your draft, it does mean you probably played from behind for most of the season and it took every bit of effort from you to recover from his performance, or lack thereof.
But “bust” is actually a relative term. It doesn’t mean the player was a complete disaster. It simply means he did not return the value expected from where he was drafted. If your first-round pick stays healthy all season and doesn’t return more than a sixth-round value, he’s a bust. If your first-round pick tears his ACL in Week 3, he shouldn’t be labeled as a bust. It’s just an unfortunate occurrence. There is a significant difference.
The list below consists of players who, we feel, will not return the proper value based on where they are expected to go in your draft.
1) Kirk Cousins , MIN – Ok, so we’re not taking a giant leap here right from the start, but few people realize just how consistent he’s been statistically over the last four years. So why a bust now? Despite the consistent production, the competition has seemingly passed him by. He actually had a better year statistically in 2018 than he did in 2017, but dropped from QB6 to QB13. He dropped further last season with the new coaching regime’s run-first mentality and now that Gary Kubiak is the official OC, I don’t see the passing game expanding. Oh yeah, and he lost a major target in Stefon Diggs and as much as I may like Justin Jefferson, he’s not replacing Diggs during his rookie campaign.
2) Mitchell Trubisky , QB CHI – Yes, another lay-up here. But this isn’t to pile on to Trubisky as much as it is a warning. You can’t draft him without drafting Nick Foles , and vice-versa. Matt Nagy claims it is going to be an open competition, but given the lack of development we’ve seen by Trubisky inside Nagy’s system, it could be Foles under center come Week 1. The weaponry is nice and the scheme really could play well, but with so much uncertainty as to who is steering the ship, you have to avoid. At best, the tandem is a QB3 in a Superflex league if you have the extra roster space to give.
3) Le'Veon Bell , RB NYJ – In the Sleepers article, we discussed David Johnson and how a new coach wants to put his own stamp on an offense; how players he did not bring in on his own could be in a bad situation. Well here we are with Bell and Adam Gase. Even worse here is that Gase even spoke out to the media of how he didn’t want Bell on the team and spent much of last year and the offseason shopping the running back around the league. So now that the offensive line has been bolstered and Bell tweets out something positive, we’re to believe everything is fine and Gase is going to properly use a running back in a way he’s never done before? Come on. This just isn’t a trustworthy situation. If Bell drops down draft boards and you can grab him as your RB3, then maybe, but even that may be pushing it. Update 8/29 - There's no injury to note, but Gase's usage of Bell during training camp and scrimmage is minimal and it's frustrating Bell, who is clearly at odds with his head coach. Bell was already a risk at his current ADP and Adam Gase has given Frank Gore high training camp grades as well as trading for Kalen Ballage to add more running back depth.
4) Miles Sanders, RB PHI – The preseason helium is already pushing Sanders higher up draft boards and with the potential of multiple running backs holding out (Joe Mixon , Dalvin Cook ), it’s likely to keep climbing. The former Penn State back opened the 2019 season behind Jordan Howard on the depth chart but eventually became the primary late in the season (Week 13ish). He is slotted in atop the depth chart right now but Doug Pederson, who comes from the Andy Reid coaching tree, likes to rotate in his running backs, and amid rumors the Eagles are looking at bringing in Devonta Freeman , the team brought back Corey Clement and will continue to utilize Boston Scott . The competition for touches isn’t huge right now, but there is an obvious belief by the head coach that multiple running backs are to be utilized in this system. Update: 8/29 - Sanders is currently week-to-week with what is being described as a "lower body" injury. The Eagles still say he'll have a heavy workload, but the Philly offensive line took a hit with Andre Dillard tearing his bicep which will cost him the season. Additionally, Brandon Brooks tore his achilles and Vaitai Halapoulivaati signed with Detroit.
5) Duke Johnson , RB HOU – At some point the truthers are going to wake up from whatever dream-world they are living in and realize that it’s never going to happen with this guy. Cleveland finally woke up and let him walk after securing Kareem Hunt and the Texans ran out and got Carlos Hyde after Lamar Miller tore his ACL. If Duke is so good, then why is he treated like such an afterthought by coaches and coordinators? The Texans added David Johnson this year at the expense of DeAndre Hopkins and will utilize him as the lead back which, again, pushes Duke into the afterthought conversation. Unless you’re handcuffing the Johnsons together, adding Duke to your team is a waste of time. He doesn’t get the touches you need for fantasy and if something catastrophic happens to David, the Texans will rush out and grab any able-bodied creature off the scrap heap.
6) Mike Evans , WR TB – This could be a tough year for Evans, who is used to be force-fed targets from Jameis Winston . Now with Tom Brady under center, the Bucs are going to be using more 12-personnel packages which means two tight ends and two receivers. While Brady will take some shots downfield, the primary aspect of his game is short, quick timing patterns where he gets rid of the ball really quickly. If that favors a receiver, it is probably Chris Godwin who is used to those routes after working so successfully out of the slot. Evans won’t be putting up goose-eggs regularly, but he’s also going to have a very limited upside. If he continues to come off the board in the late second round, you’re probably better off looking elsewhere.
7) DeVante Parker , WR MIA – One good season does not a career make. The guy spends four years looking like garbage and he has one decent year with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center and suddenly he’s a fourth or fifth-round pick? Come on. First of all, a look at his game log will show you how he didn’t start seeing double-digit targets until Preston Williams went down with a torn ACL. He also didn’t start seeing consistent red zone looks until the Fins traded Kenyan Drake and they had no running game. Then there is the fact that FitzMagic has a distinct shelf-life. There is no year-to-year consistency. He had a good year with Buffalo in 2011, declined the following year and the team was content to let him walk. He struggled through years with Tennessee and Houston, landed with the Jets and had one good year. The following season he was back to garbage. He had two blah years in Tampa and has one good year in Miami. Are you sensing a pattern? And if it is Tua under center come Week 1, do you really believe he and Parker are going to light it up together? Exactly. Move along. Nothing left to see here.
8) A.J. Green , WR CIN – He’s played in 35 of a possible 64 games over the last four years, including zero games played all of last year. He’s 31 years old and has chronic foot and ankle issues. There was a time when Green was among the league’s elite. He’s nowhere near that now and people are still drafting him as a top 30 wide receiver, just based off his name. What has that gotten them? Stupid is as stupid does, so do yourself a favor and steer clear of this nightmare.
9) Robby Anderson , WR CAR – It’s tough to be hypercritical of a guy who spent the start of his career with some of the Jets worst regimes of their existence, but to not understand that Anderson is simply a one-trick pony is doing you and your fantasy team a disservice. Anderson doesn’t go across the middle and he’s never been the guy a quarterback looks to make the tough catch in traffic to move the chains. He’s a home run threat and that’s about it. With Teddy Bridgewater under center, maybe Anderson gets a few deep shots, but he’s not going to haul them all in nor is he going to provide anyone with consistent fantasy production.
10) Will Fuller , WR HOU – Another oft-injured one-trick pony you can do without, Fuller is the master of the soft-tissue injury. Whether it’s a groin injury or a hamstring pull, Fuller always manages to find his way to the sidelines. He’s played a total of 42 out of a possible 64 games over the last four years and it’s difficult to imagine him ever playing a 16-game season. You may have had hopes he would see more targets with DeAndre Hopkins gone, but Brandin Cooks was brought in, so Fuller stays in exactly the same role. If he’s healthy, get him into a DFS lineup, but this is not someone you want to use in seasonal.
11) Sammy Watkins , WR KC – Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three or more times and you’re Sammy Watkins trolling every fantasy owner who had the slightest belief in him. He’s either injured or he isn’t being targeted. Regardless of which it might be, he is not going to do you any good. Last year was a cruel joke as he went off for 198 yards and three touchdowns in Week 1 after Tyreek Hill got hurt and he didn’t find the end zone or another 100-yard effort until the Divisional Playoffs. In between those efforts he goose-egged twice and missed another two games with an injury. Pretty sure that tells you all you need to know.
12) Dede Westbrook , WR JAC – Mediocre hands, mediocre route-runner and sub0-mediocre fantasy player, Westbrook can simply be left to your league mates in drafts. You don’t want him. He missed a couple of games with an injury last year and he never really connected with Gardner Minshew during the year. D.J. Chark and Chris Conley do a good job on the outside and the Jaguars actually drafted Dede’s replacement in Laviska Shenault. With Minshew returning to the starting job this season, you aren’t going to be able to rely on Westbrook for consistent targets or production. You should be able to build your depth at the position with numerous other options at that point in your draft.
13) Corey Davis , WR TEN – Come on. Are you serious? Blows my mind to see people stand by this guy. We thought maybe it had something to do with Marcus Mariota sucking at football, but instead, it’s actually Davis. The speed is average, he doesn’t get good separation and his new quarterback, Ryan Tannehill , and his team obviously don’t believe in him. He saw fewer than 70 targets last year and the Titans decli9ned to pick up his fifth-year option. It doesn’t even matter if he plays the season with a chip on his shoulder. He’s just not going to see the targets.
14) Tyler Higbee , TE LAR – Higbee blew up last year after fellow tight end Gerald Everett was injured and the Rams finally moved to a 12-personnel base scheme. But with a healthy Everett now, the Rams are likely to utilize Higbee more for pass-protection as he is easily the better blocker of the two. His targets are likely to decline and considering how high people have elevated him in their rankings, it is going to be extremely difficult for him to return equal value. Need more convincing? Check out this article from Andrew Cooper in his Ultimate Tight End Draft Guide series!
15) T.J. Hockenson , TE DET – He even gets a pass for last year as rookie tight ends rarely perform well and expectations of him by most were pretty low. But there is a Hockenson hype train and there are many who want the conductor job. But let’s face it, the Lions haven’t used a pass-catching tight end properly since the days of Brandon Pettigrew . He’s down the target share list below Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones , the team brought in Geronimo Allison to work out of the slot and D'Andre Swift’s presence says more running back pass plays than we saw last season. UPDATED: Geronimo Allison has opted out for the 2020 season. The team does still have Danny Amendola to work out of the slot, though, so keep that in mind.