They say the only two certainties in life are death and taxes, but clearly, those who say it have never dealt with fantasy baseball owners right before their draft. Countless hours have been spent researching players, projecting statistics and mock drafting. The last thing they want to do is screw up their drafts, thus giving us our third certainty in life – first-pick anxiety.
“I have the first pick in my draft, should I take Mike Trout or Ronald Acuna or Christian Yelich ?”
“Should I take Gerrit Cole with my first-round pick or do I have to start with hitting?”
“Do I start with the power of Cody Bellinger or the speed of Trea Turner ?”
The anxiety is real and we understand exactly what you’re going through. Every single one of us was once a beginner and every single one of us still gets butterflies in our stomachs when it is time to make that first pick. Does the first-round matter? Of course it does.
Don’t let some crotchety analyst beat you down and tell you it doesn’t matter because they’re tired of the old, “I’m picking fourth overall, who should I take?” question. They’ll hit you with things like six of the Top 15 picks last year failed to return first-round value and you’re splitting hairs by debating between Alex Bregman and Trevor Story . That may be true, but while we all know fantasy baseball leagues are won in the later rounds of the draft, it in no way means your first-round pick doesn’t matter.
Your first-round pick sets the tone for your draft.
Are you a homer? Are you someone who routinely buys into the hype machine? Do you value top-tier starting pitching above offense? Do you even know what ‘position scarcity’ means? At least one of these questions will be answered by whichever player you decide to take with your first pick.
It’s like playing poker. Maybe you’re familiar with some of the players at the table, maybe others you’re meeting for the first time. It’s your job to read them by their betting habits, facial expressions, tone of voice, etc. Well, your fantasy baseball draft is no different and it all starts with the first round.
If the owner picking third overall opts to take Cole, you know you’ve got someone who either A. is a Yankees homer, B. lives and dies by his starting pitching or C. doesn’t understand the overall depth at starting pitching. Whichever it may be, if you’re selecting near that owner, you are already getting an idea as to who may be available at your pick or, even better, who you may be able to leave for another round because you don’t believe he will steal him from you.
If an owner decides to take Bellinger with the sixth overall pick and bypasses the likes of Turner or Francisco Lindor , you can make the assessment that they are not concerned about ‘position scarcity’ (whether they truly know what that means or not) and/or they are someone who believes they can find speed in the later rounds. Or, they are someone who gets caught up in the hype as many believe a 50-20 season is coming for the 24-year old, based on what he has done thus far.
You can tell a lot about a fantasy owner who makes a trendy pick with his/her first-round selection. People who routinely buy into the hype machine are easily manipulated in drafts. You can see the concern on their faces as overhyped players they covet begin to rise on the player list in your draft room. With just a little bit of chatter, you can plant seeds of doubt and concern in their heads and get them to reach on a player by a few rounds. They are also the ones who instantaneously join in on a position-run for fear of missing out on their favorite catcher or closer.
Yeah, people! We’re talking about some serious psychological warfare here. When you’re deciding on which player you’re going to take with your first pick, know that it is the first bit of information you’re about to reveal with regard to what type of fantasy player you are. What kind of statement do you want to make? Each and every pick you make afterwards is going to reveal a little more information about your draft strategy, your player preferences and at what level you’re going to play this season. So pick a strategy. Set a game-plan. Find that first guy who tells the league you're here to win.
Set the tone properly.
Don’t just make a selection. Make a statement.