The NFL has altered its schedule this week and has taken away the Thursday night game, so for this piece, we will focus on the Monday night game between the Saints and the Colts. Yes, Draft Kings is offering a two-game Monday-Saturday (early) series of contests, but considering the injuries the Bucs have sustained and the always questionable Will Fuller , I am recommending you stay away from building lineups on a Monday for a game being played five days later.
Just as a heads-up, with three games being played Saturday, we will cover the NFL in the same way we did over Thanksgiving. I will have a three-game NFL DFS Playbook out on Friday night so you have plenty of time to research for the Saturday contests and then will have a full Sunday Playbook out at its usual time on Saturday afternoon. Jen Piacenti and I should also have an NFL Livestream for you on Saturday morning as well.
For now, let's just stick to tonight's action.
As always, I encourage you to check out Ryan Hallam’s Weekly Previews to get a deeper look into tonight’s action. In the meantime, here’s a snapshot of tonight's action. Take a read and go build some lineups, then come back and compare to the ones I am leaving here as examples. As always, these are meant to serve as a comparison tool for your own lineups. These aren’t to be taken and submitted into contests as your own.
Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints
Spread: Saints -9.5
O/U: 47.5
DVOA Defense Rankings:
Saints: Run D – 10th Pass D – 10th
Colts: Run D – 20th Pass D – 14th
Offensive Breakdown:
Passing:
How do you not love Drew Brees in this situation? He’s at home and he’s chasing touchdown records. What could be better than that? Oh, yeah, he’s facing the Colts and the record he is chasing belongs to legendary Colts quarterback Peyton Manning! For his storied career, Manning has 579 career touchdown passes. Brees is sitting on 537, just two behind. Sandwiched in between is Tom Brady with 578, but he just doesn’t have the firepower to stay with Brees, so this is about a Saints QB chasing a Colts QB in the record books on a night when the Saints host the Colts. Is that enough of a narrative for you? If not, then we can look to the 300.7 passing yards per game allowed by the Colts over the last three weeks, the 22 passing touchdowns they’ve allowed this year and the 97.4 passer rating opposing quarterbacks have posted against them.
For the Colts, Jacoby Brissett has a slightly steeper climb. Not by much, though, as the Saints have given up 281 passing yards per game over the last three weeks with 24 passing touchdowns allowed with a 90.7 passer rating against them. Outside of Marshon Lattimore , the Saints secondary routinely struggles and Brissett could be getting back a huge weapon in T.Y. Hilton tonight. Brees is easily the QB you want in this match-up, but you have to expect Brissett to throw often if the Colts are going to keep pace.
Rushing:
Even though Brees is chasing history, the game plan for the Saints should obviously include a strong rushing attack. After all, they’ve been a run-first team over the last few seasons and it’s worked very well for them. Of course, that was when Alvin Kamara was flying high and now, he’s like a sea-plane who keeps tapping the water trying to take off. The strength of the Colts defensive line is on the outside, so you can expect to see a fair number of inside zone-runs. That will bring Latavius Murray into the fold a lot more than Kamara owners would like, but again, this has been their blueprint for a few weeks now. Murray will continue to see strong touches as well as short-yardage and potential coal-line work. Also keep in mind the Colts rank sixth against running back pass-plays, so that aspect of Kamara’s game might get jacked up a little as well. His price tag will be high, but as a contrarian play, it could pay off.
The Colts will lean heavily on Marlon Mack when they can. Getting him back last week was a big thing for them and though Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins may get mixed in here and there, Mack should lead this backfield in touches. The Saints have just lost Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport on the defensive line and may struggle to stuff the run, especially against such a sturdy offensive line like the Colts have. New Orleans has allowed almost 125 rushing yards per game over their last three and the injuries aren’t likely to help that number come down this week.
Receiving:
If you love Drew Brees , then you love Michael Thomas almost as much, if not more. With 121 receptions, Thomas has the most catches in a team's first 13 games in NFL history, having surpassed Marvin Harrison, who had 118 through the Colts' first 13 games in 2002. Now Thomas is eyeballing the single-season mark of 143, also set by Harrison in 2002. Thomas needs to average close to eight catches per game to achieve his goals.
As for other Saints receivers, I’ll take a look at slot receiver Tre’Quan Smith for tonight’s game. Ted Ginn will be dealing with Rock Ya-Sin which will leave Smith to face Rolan Milligan in a favorable match-up. On the season, the Colts rank just 26th against the opposing WR3, according to DVOA numbers. The Colts also rank 16th against the tight end, so Jared Cook , who won’t reach the heights of his two-touchdown game from last week, will be in play if he is cleared via concussion protocol.
On the other side, it all comes down to the injury report. T.Y. Hilton (calf) is questionable and a true game-time decision. Reports say he is trending up, but again, you’ll just have to wait and see. But do we really want to use him? In addition to the injury, you can expect Lattimore to cover Hilton if he is in. Will he shadow him? Probably. That will push me over towards Zach Pascal who will then have Eli Apple covering him for the majority of the time. That grades out as favorable, according to our friends over at Pro Football Focus. If Hilton is in, Marcus Johnson could be intriguing if he works out of the slot. He’s not your typical slot receiver, but with P.J. Williams in coverage, it could be a hit.
Keep your Jack Doyle enthusiasm in check as the Saints rank 12th against the tight end and are allowing just 49.1 yards per game to the position, but if you’re looking for a nice little salary-saving dart-throw, check out slot receiver Ashton Dulin, if Hilton is out. Again, it’s not about talent here as much as it could be the opportunity and the match-up. If Dulin is too deep a dive for you, perhaps Dontrelle Inman makes an appearance this week. Again, only if Hilton is out.