NFL DFS Playbook: Week 15 (Saturday Only)
Howard Bender pores over the data and the match-ups to bring you his favorite plays for NFL Week 15 DFS Saturday contests.
Welcome to the Saturday DFS Playbook for NFL Week 15!
It's that time of year, once again, where the NFL says that Sunday, Monday and Thursday just isn't enough and they need to take over another day of the week. As a result, we get some Saturday football now too, and what a pair of games we get to kick things off. On the surface, people may scoff at a Bills/Broncos or Packers/Panthers game, but alliterationaside, there's actually plenty to like about these two games, especially for the DFS space.
Now before we start diving into the players, let me reiterate that on two-game slates, I do not play or recommend cash games. There is just too much player overlap which raises the pay-lines and makes it much more difficult to cash. This is GPP tournament territory only and, unless you are a max-entry player, I highly recommend you stay with the single-entry contests. Keep the playing field as level as possible. You want to take that lineup and chuck it into the Milli-Maker? Sure, go ahead if you have the disposable income. But building five lineups and throwing them into a mega multi-entry contest is the equivalent of going into your local grocery store and buying five scratch-off lottery tickets. For me, playing the Saturday slate is about having some fun the day before putting the real work in.
As far as lineup construction goes, I tend to build four primary lineups, stacking one team per lineup. That's why you will see all four quarterbacks listed below. If I am ranking my favorite to least favorite with regard to how many points could be scored, it would be Green Bay, Buffalo, Carolina and then Denver. If you are a contrarian player, it would, obviously, be the reverse. You do need to find some contrarian plays to differentiate yourself from the rest of the herd and while some will opt for the contrarian stack, I may lean a little more on the stack I think scores the most and sprinkle in some contrarian plays. Now if I am building 20 lineups, I will have 10 with my favorite stack and then split the other 10 with the other three stacks so I have exposure to some of the contrarian QBs like Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater . If I use a contrarian stack, I'll probably fill in the cracks with some chalk plays from the other teams. The all-contrarian lineups rarely win you the big prize.
OK. So we good now? We ready? Let's get to the players...