NFL DFS Playbook: Week 7
Howard Bender pores over the data and match-ups to bring you his favorite DFS plays for both cash games and GPP tournaments in NFL Week 7.
Welcome to the DFS Playbook for NFL Week 7!
I feel like I say "what a week," quite a lot this season, but as we head into this weekend's games, I have to say it again. What a week. And not always a good thing. Well, maybe not for seasonal fantasy football, that is. In DFS, we simply roll with the punches and take the value where we can. But this week, we ran into more COVID stuff, this time hitting the entire Raiders offensive line. They've been in isolation over the last several days and the game will be played, but there is no way I'm putting my trust into them or any of their players right now. To make matters more complicated, the NFL, in the hopes of ensuring a Sunday night game will be played, switched the Bucs/Raiders game from Sunday night to 4pm ET and swapped the Seahawks/Cardinals game to the prime-time slot. Sounds simple enough, right? Well, both FanDuel and DraftKings have decided to keep the Seahawks/Cardinals game as part of the main slate which means we won't know how our lineups did until later in the evening. Makes the day even longer, right? And let's face it, with an over/underof 55.5, you know people are going to be leaning heavily on this game, especially with so many tasty options.
Speaking of tasty options, we also got hit with a wild injury report on Friday which has now turned this slate even more upside down. Joe Mixon was declared out with a foot injury which means a very low-priced Giovani Bernard becomes a very chalky salary-saver, and Aaron Jones , who was in a smash-spot against a porous Houston run defense, injured his calf in Thursday's practice, missed Friday and is not being called a game-time decision. You would think an automatic pivot to Jamaal Williams is in order, but Packers head coach brought up A.J. Dillon's name and, well, they haven't really ruled Jones out, have they? How lame to have such a tasty matcch-up and not know which of the three to really play? Oh yeah, and Emmanuel Sanders has the COVID, so now he joins Michael Thomas on the sidelines this Sunday. What a week, right?
But fear not, #FANation! We got this. The DFS position coaches have been on top of every situation and updates have been made. I've had numerous DFS conversations with Adam Ronis, Jon Impemba and Jen Piacenti and we've got a firm grip on this slate. Given how we've been hitting lately, I am very confident that we will have a profitable week.
Before we get to the actual players in the Playbook, a few reminders for those who may be joining us late, here is your three-step process to lead you up to going through your favorite Playbook plays:
Step 1: Check out the DFS Position Coaches
Step 2: Check out the rest of the relevant DFS content
In addition to the positional coaching pieces, you also have things like the DFS Watch List, where I provide you with a list of players I am looking at throughout the week. We have the NFL DFS Podcast with me and Jon Impemba (@jimpemba777), who also does the Contrarian Corner video and check out the DFS Bargains from Jen Piacenti (@jenpiacenti). Our Master of Tools, Matt Selz (@theselzman), supplies you data junkies with the Weekly Match-Up Report and everyone should also be reading the Weekly Game Previews and WR/CB Match-Up Report from Ryan Hallam (@fightingchance).
Step 3: Make your own list of players
It's real easy to just sit and wait for the Playbook, but as you are doing your research throughout the week, it is important to make notes and list the players who interest you the most. Maybe they end up in the Playbook and maybe they don't. If they're there, then great, it should mean we are honing in on the same things that make him a strong play. If not, maybe you're onto something else that someone overlooked. We aren't perfect and if you uncover something different, maybe you're right. I would be careful of routine groupthink and hype from beat writers, but often times someone will tell me something they saw about their local team that I missed and I am always looking to investigate more if its there. If you do, then say something in the chat. Talk it out and see what the rest of the #FAmily thinks.That's why the chat is there, isn't it?
With those three steps complete and discussions are in progress, you are ready to look at the Playbook players, make comparisons and finalize your list for lineups, so let's get to it.