NFL DFS Playbook: Week 4
Howard Bender pores over the data and the match-ups to bring you his favorite plays for Week 4 NFL DFS contests.
Welcome to the DFS Playbook for NFL Week 4!
Another week in the books, another week in front of us and more obstacles to overcome. While the Steelers/Titans game being postponed due to COVID-19 takes some strong players like James Conner, Derrick Henry and JuJu Smith-Schuster off the board, the damage is more severe in the seasonal fantasy community than it is in DFS. We simply move on. They're the ones who have to scratch and claw looking for replacements who are much less likely to get the job done. So while we wish the players and staff who are affected well, we have a job to do ourselves -- win money.
I'm not going to lie and tell you it's easy just because we've won money in each of the three previous weeks. The match-ups are different each and every time and we have to put in just as much work now as we did in any of those weeks. An interesting obstacle we are up against is the Vegas point totals. The books have been taking a beating with all the high-scoring games and, as a result, have presented us with seven games that have a total over 50. That almost never happens. As a result, we have that handful of games to which everyone is flocking and we are going to have to spend extra time sorting through the ownership percentages for aour cash lineups. Some of the calls will be easy -- I'm looking at you, Alvin Kamara. But some will be players we wouldn't normally use for cash purposes qand we have to decide if we are truly getting the free square or if it's a potential trap.
Fortunately, you are part of #FANation and you have all of our analysts at your disposal along with some of the best content this industry has to offer. So let's just get to it.
Now before we get to the Playbook players, allow me to remind you of what you should be doing leading up this step in your research.
Step 1: Check out the DFS Position Coaches
Step 2: Check out the rest of the relevant DFS content
In addition to the positional coaching pieces, you also have things like the DFS Watch List, where I provide you with a list of players I am looking at throughout the week. We have the NFL DFS Podcast with me and Jon Impemba (@jimpemba777), who also does the Contrarian Corner video and check out the DFS Bargains from Jen Piacenti (@jenpiacenti). Our Master of Tools, Matt Selz (@theselzman), supplies you data junkies with the Weekly Match-Up Report and everyone should also be reading the Weekly Game Previews and WR/CB Match-Up Report from Ryan Hallam (@fightingchance).
Step 3: Make your own list of players
It's real easy to just sit and wait for the Playbook, but as you are doing your research throughout the week, it is important to make notes and list the players who interest you the most. Maybe they end up in the Playbook and maybe they don't. If they're there, then great, it should mean we are honing in on the same things that make him a strong play. If not, maybe you're onto something else that someone overlooked. We aren't perfect and if you uncover something different, maybe you're right. I would be careful of routine groupthink and hype from beat writers, but often times someone will tell me something they saw about their local team that I missed and I am always looking to investigate more if its there. If you do, then say something in the chat. Talk it out and see what the rest of the #FAmily thinks.That's why the chat is there, isn't it?
With those three steps complete and discussions are in progress, you are ready to look at the Playbook players, make comparisons and finalize your list for lineups, so let's get to it.
**LATE NOTE: Cam Newton has tested positive for COVID-19. The game has officially been postponed to Monday or Tuesday, so this game is no longer on the main slate.