2018 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Clayton Kershaw

Clayton Kershaw

Clayton Kershaw is one of the best pitchers in the history of the game. Now that that’s out of the way…

It’s hard to believe that Kershaw will turn just 30 years old 10 days prior to Opening Day this year, seeing as how he has already put together a truly historic decade of dominance on the mound. Kershaw became a three-time Cy Young Award winner at age 26 and has finished inside the Top-5 in voting for that honor each of the last seven seasons. During that same stretch, his ERA has maxed out at 2.53 (2012) and he has picked up 16 or more wins five separate times.

The case has been made, but all that is obviously in the past. The important questions now concern what to expect from Kershaw in 2018 and where he should be picked in fantasy baseball drafts. Many simply view him as the default No. 1 starting pitcher without thinking twice. He unquestionably remains in the conversation along with the likes of Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, and Max Scherzer, but it’s not necessarily so clear cut at this point.

Why is that exactly? Well, while Sale, Kluber, and Scherzer have combined for 11 200-plus-inning seasons – Sale finished with 174.0 in 2014 – across the past four years, Kershaw has managed the feat only once in that span. Nagging back issues, which limited the Dodgers’ ace to 149.0 and 175.0 frames respectively over the last two seasons, have been the recurring problem. 

Even with the time missed in 2016 and 2017, Kershaw has still delivered elite stats. However, the wear and tear has made a marked impact on his effectiveness. The following table compares some of Kershaw’s results from the beginning of 2015 through June 30, 2016, which is when he landed on the DL due to a “mild disc herniation”, to numbers he has turned in since September 9, 2016, the date he returned from that particular DL stint.

As has already been stated, Kershaw has not left the ranks of the elite starters around the league. Although, it is evident that he is not quite as dominant as he once was. Approaching 2,000 innings for his MLB career, he can be cut some slack for that. In fantasy circles, however, it matters a great deal.

Let’s go ahead and assume 30 starts for Kershaw this year, which would be the most for him since 2015. Let’s also assume he maintains the IP/G and K/9 paces reflected in the bottom row of the table above. Where does that leave him in terms of total strikeouts? Right around a solid 215. Not bad, but it pales in comparison to the three-year running averages of Scherzer (276), Sale (272), and Kluber (246). In fact, 11 pitchers punched out at least 215 batters in 2017.

Kershaw can make up for the potential discrepancy in strikeouts by continuing his unrivaled run in the ERA and WHIP departments, but he experienced some regression in those areas last year too, finishing with his highest marks since 2012 in both categories. Let’s take a look at how those stats and some others have played out for Kershaw in recent years.

This table only further illustrates that Kershaw, while still being a fantastic hurler, has tailed off a bit from his career peak. That xFIP from 2017, his highest since 2013, might very well indicate that Kershaw needed some luck to keep his ERA as low as it was. Could he do it again? Of course. Will he? That’s the million-dollar question. In the event he cannot, we could be looking at a high-2.00s, or even a low-3.00s, ERA from Kershaw.

In the latest results from the Mock Draft Army, Kershaw is still standing strong as the No. 1 SP at 11.27 Overall and has been selected as high as fourth. That means he’s still going in the first round of plenty 12-team formats and the majority of 15-teamers. That’s justifiable based upon his extensive track record, but if you decide to go that route in the first round, keep in mind there’s more risk of further regression and poor health with Kershaw now than so many typically think.

For those that do jump up to make Kershaw their top pick, you’re not likely to end up disappointed at all. However, the chance that you’ll be giving up a prime offensive producer in favor of a pitcher that could easily be outperformed by second rounders like Sale or Kluber is simply too high to make it a rational choice in 2018.

It could even be the case that any of the other three pitchers mentioned in this piece are better suited for the first round than Kershaw. That said, the future Hall of Famer is virtually a must if you find him in the middle of the second round, as he’s still well worthy of Top-20 overall status.