Lorenzo Cain

Age:31
Bats/Throws:R/R
Height/Weight:6'2", 205 lbs
Position:Outfielder

This offseason did not go quite as planned for several headlining free agents. That, however, cannot be said for Lorenzo Cain, as he banked an $80M payday back in late-January that returned him to the franchise with which he made his MLB debut back in 2010.

The Brewers were among the league’s most active teams during this past “Hot Stove” period and, because of that, appear to be a serious contender in the N.L. Central. At the very least, they are making a real play for it. Not only was Cain brought in, but so was Christian Yelich via trade from the Marlins. The two are expected to form an incredibly dynamic duo at the top of the batting order in Milwaukee. Though it remains unknown exactly what order they will line up in, Cain will be in a prime spot to deliver great, if not elite, production for those that secure him in fantasy baseball drafts whether it be leading off or from the two hole.

Where exactly should you begin looking to select Cain? Well, based upon the most recent results from the Mock Draft Army, Cain is sitting just outside the Top-20 outfielders and often being taken in the late-seventh or early-eighth round in 12-team standard formats. All things considered, that ADP offers plenty of potential upside for the former Kansas City star. Let’s take a look at some of the offensive marks Cain put up for the Royals over the last three seasons.

 

.AVG (BABIP)

wOBA

K% / BB%

HR per 162 G

SB per 162 G

2015

.307 (.347)

.360

16.2 / 6.1

19

32

2016

.287 (.341)

.322

19.4 / 7.1

14

22

2017

.300 (.340)

.347

15.5 / 8.4

16

27

 

The first thing that’s plainly visible from the table is that Cain is a legitimate .300-level hitter with little variation in his luck factor across the past three seasons. It’s also easy to see that 2016 was a down year for him. Cain dealt with multiple injuries that summer and ended up playing in only 103 games, so the down tick in numbers can largely be attributed to poor health. He had a nice bounce back during his age-31 campaign last year, even posting a career-low strikeout rate and career-high walk rate.

Cain appears to be maturing at the plate as he ages. That is obviously a positive trend, and one that will aid him as he exits his prime. He’s not quite to that point yet though, as there have been few, if any, signs that his intriguing power-speed combo is significantly deteriorating. A better question might be regarding whether he can actually top his 15 homers and 26 steals from 2017.

Not only will the Brewers place Cain in what should be a better lineup than the one the Royals fielded last season, but Miller Park plays as a far more homer-prone venue than Kansas City’s Kauffman Stadium. In fact, according to ESPN’s Park Factors, Miller Park has not finished outside the Top-12 power-hitting environments in any of the last five seasons.

Could Cain smack 20 bombs for the first time in his career? There’s a definite possibility. Of his 15 round trippers last season, a mere three of them came in Kansas City. Along with that, despite very similar hard-contact rates around 31 percent both at home and on the road, Cain managed a paltry 3.8-percent HR/FB rate at Kauffman while boasting a 14.6-percent mark everywhere else.  

As far as speed and ability on the base paths go, Cain routinely excels. He has swiped a combined 96 bags (30 per 162 games) since the start of the 2014 season and done so at an impressive 84.2-percent success rate. Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell is known for being aggressive, and that reputation is backed up by the Brewers’ first (2016) and second-place (2017) finishes in stolen bases over the past two years. Cain has seen that 30-steal threshold barely allude him on multiple occasions, but there’s a good chance he reaches it in 2018.

So, might we see Cain put together a banner season at 32 years old? The opportunity is certainly there. One thing is for sure, a .300-20-30 performance, which should feature 90-plus runs as well, would make him a tremendous bargain based at his current mid-80s draft position.