2018 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Dansby Swanson

It has happened before, and it will happen again. A highly-touted, can’t-miss prospect gets ready to embark on his first full big-league campaign, plants himself firmly on the fantasy radar, then proceeds to wet the bed and vehemently frustrate investors. No one played out that script better than Dansby Swanson in 2017.

For Swanson, it’s not like the hype was unjustified. Not even a little. After starring at Vanderbilt, the young shortstop was the top overall selection of the 2015 MLB Amateur Draft by the Diamondbacks. After one summer in the Arizona system that saw him post an .876 OPS across 99 plate appearances, Swanson was dealt to the Braves in what at the time seemed like a blockbuster trade but now appears to have been little more than theft from Atlanta’s end.    

Upon his arrival to the Braves organization, Swanson took up residence at, or at least near, the top of an immensely-deep list of prospects with their eyes on Atlanta. It didn’t take long for the then 22 year old to get the call. In fact, Swanson never even made a stop a Triple-A prior to his MLB debut on August 17, 2016.

A jump from Double-A to the show is quite rare and one that is almost universally questioned when it does happen regardless of the player at hand. However, after Swanson put together a .302/.361/.442 slash line over 38 games down the stretch of the 2016 season, few were left in doubt of the Braves decision to hasten his promotion. That quick success is also what drove the anticipation of things to come from Swanson in 2017.

As previously alluded to, Swanson failed to come even close to expectations last year. There were a few promising stretches of offensive production which should not be overlooked, but when all was said and done, his rookie season was a bust. The question now is what’s in store from the post-hype youngster for 2018. It’s too early to give up on him. At the same time, a .636 OPS and .092 ISO must be improved greatly in order for him to end up warranting much, if any, consideration for mixed-league drafts.

So, what exactly were the direct causes of Swanson’s drop-off from 2016 to 2017? Well, his strikeout rates were similar, as were his walk rates and hit types (LD%, GB%, FB%). The pronounced shifts between the two seasons can be found by looking at his batted-ball direction and quality of contact. Those two measurements certainly seem to be the main culprits behind Swanson’s downturns in BABIP and ISO.

Now, what are the most revealing factors from the table above? First off, we see an obvious transition from a hitter that, to his significant benefit, uses all fields into one that is pull-happy, possibly in search of more home-run power. What was the most detrimental effect of that approach? It certainly seems to be a 5.4-percent decrease in hard-contact rate. Trying to be a “home-run” hitter, as so many immature players trying to live up to an enormous billing often do, only served to Swanson’s detriment.

That approach also eventually earned Swanson a demotion to the minors on July 26 of last year. After two weeks of refining at the Triple-A level, he returned to the Atlanta clubhouse and responded with his best offensive month of the season.

Across 21 games last August, Swanson demonstrated what has made him such a praiseworthy prospect, as he reentered the Braves lineup with much more discipline and a better plan of attack. After whiffing in 23.2 percent of his plate appearances with a 0.42 BB/K from April through July, he struck out only 15.7 percent of the time with a 1.08 BB/K in August. In addition to those marks, Swanson’s batted-ball direction and contact quality was much more reflective of past performance. All of that combined to produce an .848 OPS, .375 BABIP and .118 ISO.

Swanson kept his hot streak going through the first week of September, but he did fade during the last few weeks of the season. That might be cause for a little added concern, but it could also have simply been a sign of fatigue. With that August 2017 performance a fresh reminder of his vast upside, Swanson could present a serious buy-low opportunity in drafts this spring considering his current Mock Draft Army ADP as the 25th shortstop (364.55 overall) off the board.  

Granted, a BABIP in the .375 range is not sustainable – Swanson is a prime example of that (2016-17) – but a mark well above .292 for a player with this level of talent is not difficult to imagine. The truth is that he is likely going to end up being one of those players that is more valuable to his actual team than a fantasy roster. However, Swanson becoming a .290-ish hitter with 10-15 homers and 10-15 steals this year is well within the realm of possibility, as those numbers fall right in line with his per-162-game pace in the majors during 2016.

Think about it, Xander Bogaerts is going 300 picks higher. Just saying.