Heading into 2020, the third base position looked loaded and pretty deep. There was presumed to be a lot of top-tier talent, as well as value to fall back on in the middle rounds, or at least after some of the elite were already selected. When you look at some of the top performers from 2019, how could you not think that?

Eugenio Suárez , Alex Bregman and Nolan Arenado all hit 40 or more home runs. A whopping 12 players hit at least 30 home runs! Eight players at least 100 RBI and five of those eight also had at least 100 runs to add to that. José Ramírez was the only player with more than 10 stolen bases, and only Ramirez and Moncada reached double-digits at the position.

Well, the narrative that this position was strong for 2020 fell flat on its face, to say the least. There were just six third basemen with double-digit home runs and only one player with double-digit steals. However, there were five third basemen with at least five stolen bases. Of qualified hitters at the position, only one hit above .300 and only five hit above .275.

Let’s just say that the third base position underperformed in 2020 and the narrative has shifted on the outlook of this position for 2021. This position features one legitimate power/speed guy (Ramirez) and a lot of former first round picks in fantasy slipping in drafts, hoping for bounce back seasons (looking at you Arenado and Bregman).

Far and away, José Ramírez is the top third baseman in fantasy for 2021. He’s the primary one with big time upside in the stolen base department and is the odds-on favorite to be the only third baseman in the 25/25 club this season. Do you need to prioritize him in drafts however? Perhaps I’m too bullish on too many bounce back campaigns at the position in 2021, but I’m waiting until the next tier of third baseman, or waiting until the back end.

Drafting a third baseman with big time power early isn’t necessarily needed, considering the wealth of expected power at the position for 2021. There are quite a few bounce backs that I’m buying into this year.

Notable Names Following Down 2020 Seasons

Nolan Arenado is a lock of locks to return to fantasy stardom. Who cares if he’s not in Colorado anymore? Well, I do, because everyone is going to discount him when he’s been pretty darn good for his career in St. Louis. He’s been rock solid for his career and if you’re going to discount him a few spots because instead of 40 home runs and 130 RBI, he’s going to hit 36 home runs with 125 RBI, go right ahead. We’ll scoop him up with a big smile.

Alex Bregman is another former first round pick that despite some decreases in his batted ball profile, should be set up for a nice 2021 season. There are some concerns with his dissipating launch angle since the latter part of 2019, but he’s still a 30 home run guy that should have nice counting stats to add to his overall value.

Not Flashy, but Valuable

Anthony Rendon isn’t the flashiest pick and you may not be jumping for joy when you roster him. However, he’s a perennial contributor hitting in an Angels lineup that figures to be good in 2021. The guy has had at least 20 home runs each year from 2016-2019 and would have done it again in 2020 if it was a regular season. Yes, he’s not the flashiest name or sexiest pick, but 30 home runs, 100 runs scored and 100 RBI with a .280 batting average is valuable every day of the week. He used to be a top 25 pick, but you can get him later now.

Kris Bryant can hit, when healthy, and he’s at such a bargain this year it’s almost hard not to take a chance on him! His 2020 season stunk, but he had 31 home runs in 2019. He still might get traded, but at his price point, he should be a guy you look to roster everywhere. If he bounces back, he’s one of the bigger steals this year at his ADP.

Give Me the Upside

Oakland’s Matt Chapman is one of my favorite values at the position. Actually, he just might be my favorite. His average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives has increased two straight seasons and was the 6th highest in all of baseball last year. He posted an immense barrel rate and despite a gargantuan home park, I think he gets to 40 home runs this year, and he’s my dark horse to lead the position, and maybe all of baseball in home runs. He’s incredibly valuable this year.

Cavan Biggio has multiple positions to his name, and third base just so happens to be one of them. He’s the emerging guy at the position and could join Ramirez in the 20/20 club at the position. Over his last 159 games, he has 24 home runs and 20 stolen bases. It’s not crazy to think that if Ramirez doesn’t lead all third baseman in stolen bases, it just might be Biggio.

Youngsters to Watch

Pittsburgh’s Ke’Bryan Hayes has a ton of potential, and while he only stole one bag in 2020, his minor league numbers show that he is a threat on the basepaths. He should hit for a solid average this year, but if the public starts to get on him more, his ADP may get out of control. If you can nab him at a reasonable price, there’s no reason he couldn’t hit 15 home runs with 10 stolen bases and a .275 average.

Philadelphia’s Alec Bohm is looking to be that trendy pick in drafts this season. He hit .338 with four home runs and 23 RBI in 44 games last year, good for a 162 game average of 15 home run and 85 RBI. Not too shabby! He’s hitting in a great lineup with plenty of run-producing opportunities, but like Hayes, his ADP may get out of control. However, if you believe, go get your guy.

Using Steamer’s projections for the 2021 season, here’s the outlook we get.

  • 10 third baseman with 30 or more home runs
  • Only three with double-digit stolen bases

Using NFBC ADP data, we see...

  • Three in the top 30 picks
  • Seven in the top 50 picks
  • 12 in the top 100 picks

We mentioned a few names above, but it’s crazy to think we didn’t even mention guys like Max Muncy , Tommy Edman , Jean Segura , Josh Donaldson , Austin Riley and others.

This is a testament to how deep this position is with overall talent, but the overall outlook on the position is clear. José Ramírez is the cream of the crop, and after that, your third base outlook is either betting on a bounce back season from the likes of Nolan Arenado , Alex Bregman or Kris Bryant , taking a “Steady Eddie” like Anthony Rendon , or betting on a youngster like Ke’Bryan Hayes or Alec Bohm.

  • This is a position where if you want to get Ramirez, I can’t blame you.
  • This is a position where if you want to pass on Ramirez and get Arenado, Bregman or Biggio, I can’t blame you.
  • This is a position where if you want to wait and just get your 30 home runs at a cheaper price and get Matt Chapman , Max Muncy , or Josh Donaldson , I can’t blame you.

I truly believe with so many power options, there are numerous avenues to success with this position. The lack of top-tier talent but with a wealth of options in the “middle,” this position is a lot of fun and you can go many ways with it.

If you miss on some of the bigger names, there are plenty of names to fall back on. After José Ramírez , unless you have a gut feeling about one of these guys, you can likely wait and get similar production a little bit later.

Statistical Credits:

fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball