The First Base position isn’t as shallow of a position as it’s been in recent years but it’s still a bit top heavy this season. However, if you invest the time to create a draft strategy that takes the overall depth of the position into account, as well as the type of fantasy production you should be looking for from your starting fantasy first baseman, there’s plenty of talent to choose from.

Traditionally, first basemen have been expected to provide fantasy baseball managers with above average home run, runs scored, and RBI category production. 

For the purpose of this article we’ll be referencing Fantasy Pros’ consensus ADP’s (Average Draft Position) and basing our discussion on 12-team roto drafts. ADP’s are current as of February 2nd, 2021.

The Elite

Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman and Dodgers first baseman Cody Bellinger , are widely considered the top two fantasy first basemen and are usually selected between the late-first-to-early-second rounds of typical 12-team drafts. Freeman has a slightly higher ADP (12.3) and typically hits for a higher batting average, but Bellinger (ADP 15) hits for more power, can steal bases, and is multi-position eligible (1B/OF). The following is a look at their career 162-game averages:

Player

BA

Runs

HRs

RBI

SB’s

Freddie Freeman

.295

98

28

99

5

Cody Bellinger

.273

104

39

102

14

Early-Round Options

New York Yankee DJ LeMahieu (ADP 27.8) and Chicago White Sox first baseman José Abreu (34) are usually taken in the third round of 12-teams drafts.

LeMahieu hits for high average (.305 career BA) and is also eligible at second and third base. He provides elite run scoring production, but don’t expect much more than 20-to-25 home runs from him across a full season.

Abreu, the reigning AL MVP, has a career .294 BA, 33 HR, 113 RBI, 162-game average. He had a 72.4 ADP last season, but he’s been moving up draft boards this preseason.

If you wait a little longer to draft your primary fantasy first baseman, Pete Alonso (ADP 55.3), Luke Voit (ADP 55.5), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (ADP 57) are usually available in the fifth round of 12-team drafts.

Alonso has 40-home run potential, but breaking balls give the Mets first baseman trouble (career .200 BAA). Expect his overall batting average to be in the .250 range.

Voit came into Yankees spring training camp in “the best shape of his life” and led the big leagues with 22 home runs last season. Voit checks all the boxes with regards to the type of individual category production that you expect from your fantasy first baseman.

Despite posting mediocre Major League stats in his first 183 games, Guerrero Jr.’s fantasy value still seems tied to his gaudy minor league numbers. Guerrero is young, he’s trimmed down this offseason and based on his underlying skillset, still has upside. He committed four errors in eight Dominican Winter League games while playing third base this season, but the Blue Jays insist he’ll have an opportunity to play the hot corner during this season. With enough starts at third base he can be potentially multi-position eligible.

Finding Value in the Middle Rounds

In some respects waiting until the middle rounds before drafting your starting fantasy first baseman might be your best option. Following this strategy allows you to create a solid foundation for your fantasy baseball team. It permits you to focus on grabbing a five-tool offensive player and also gives you the opportunity to stock up on quality starting pitching in the early rounds of your draft.

No one is really sure if (and how many) starting pitchers will experience any immediate lingering effects from the crazy stop-and-start abbreviated 2020 season. That uncertainty has caused there to be a premium on starting pitching in early preseason drafts. According to Fantasy Pros’ overall ADP, 12 of the first 30 picks in early preseason drafts are starting pitchers. Last season only eight of the first 30 picks were starting pitchers.

There’s still plenty of fantasy first base value to be found in the middle rounds of 12-team drafts. Each of the following players has their own special brand of fantasy goodness and are all typically available between the seventh and 11th rounds of 12-team fantasy baseball drafts.

A’s first baseman Matt Olson (ADP 83.5) is a prolific power hitter and while he’ll never hit for high average, he’s a much better hitter than his .195 2020 BA suggests.

At 32 years old, Paul Goldschmidt (ADP 89.3) is probably never going to steal double-digit bases again, but the St. Louis Cardinal is capable of hitting 30 home runs, posting a .290 BA and driving in 90+ runs. The addition of Nolan Arenado gives the Cardinals a much deeper lineup and can only help Goldschmidt.

Max Muncy (ADP 95.3) is eligible at first, second, and third base. He slumped for much of the 2020 season, posting an overall .192 BA. Injuries (elbow, fractured finger) may have contributed to his issues at the plate, but Muncy bounced back by seasons end and posted a .318 World Series BA for the Dodgers. At his core, he’s a .250 hitter who provides 30-home run power and can be started at five different fantasy infield positions.

Anthony Rizzo ’s (ADP 97) overall 2020 statistics were much worse than his career norms, but he’s been a streaky hitter his entire Cubs career and there’s a good chance that if he had played a full 162-game season his numbers would have rebounded by seasons end. Overall Rizzo batted just .222 last season but Statcast lists his xBA as .266. Steamer projects him to belt 29 home runs and steal seven bases.

Dominic Smith (ADP 103.5) has developed his hit tool over the past few seasons. Smith posted a .316/.377/.616 slash line last season and his barrel rate has increased from 6.3 in 2018 to 13.3 last season. He’s multi-position eligible (1B/OF) and unless the Mets make additional offseason moves, he is expected to be their everyday leftfielder.  

Forearm and quad injuries limited Mike Moustakas (ADP 128.3) and forced him to the IL for a part of last season. He has a modest .251 career BA, but Moustakas is also eligible at second base. When healthy he flexes a 30-home run bat and should take advantage of the Reds’ hitter-friendly home park this season.

Late Round Options

You can still find potential value in the later rounds of your 12-team drafts. However, some of the players we’ll discuss in this group might be better suited to be included in your fantasy lineups at the Corner Infielder spot.

If you believe in Padres first baseman Eric Hosmer ’s (ADP 147) new found power bat he could be a draft day bargain based on his ADP. His barrel rate has increased for three straight seasons, improving from 5.9 in 2018 to 10.3 last season. His launch angle has also increased from a negative 1.4 in 2018 to 8.7 last season. He posted a career high .517 slugging percentage and as a career .278 hitter, he typically helps fantasy managers in the BA category.  

Ryan Mountcastle (ADP 152.8) had an excellent rookie season (.333/.386/.492 slash line in 35 games) for the Orioles, but his .268 xBA, .398 BABIP and 38.1 chase rate suggest we might see some regression in 2021. Based on the plus hit tool he’s displayed all throughout his professional career Mountcastle could still be a fantasy asset this season.

Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins (ADP 169) may drain your fantasy team’s batting average but he possesses a 30+ home run bat and can provide value in leagues that track OBP (career .366 OBP).

Josh Bell (ADP 171.8) had a monster breakout in the first half of the 2019 season, batting .302 with 27 home runs in 88 games. Since then he’s played 109 games, and batted .229 with 18 home runs. Bell’s a bit of a risky option as he looks to get a fresh start with the Nationals this season.

You might be better off taking a chance on Trey Mancini (ADP 191.3) instead. Mancini missed the entire 2020 season due to colon cancer. Thankfully, he is cancer free, working out and expected to play in 2021 for the Orioles. He batted .291 with 35 home runs and 97 RBI in 2019.

Sleepers

Jared Walsh , (ADP 208.3) who is a former pitcher, has compiled a career minor league .301/.375/.538 slash line. After a disappointing 31-game big league audition in 2019, Walsh batted .293 with nine home runs and 26 RBI in 32 games last season. He played 29 games at first base last season, but is penciled in as the Angels’ right fielder to start the 2021 season. Given enough at bats he could potentially hit 20+ home runs.

Rowdy Tellez (ADP 260.3) suffered a knee strain that prematurely ended his 2020 season. However, in his last 17 games of the season Tellez compiled a .388/.456/.714 slash line. Overall, Tellez’s plate discipline improved last season as he increased his walk rate and decreased his strikeout and chase rates. Tellez will likely split his time between being the Blue Jays’ primary DH and also fill in at first base on occasion. Like Walsh, he also has 20+ home run potential.

In 23 games for the Red Sox last season Bobby Dalbec (ADP 294.8) hit eight home runs and posted a 22% barrel rate. His power is real, but he also struck out 42.4% of the time. Steamer projects that he’ll hit 27 home runs in 128 games this season, but if he doesn’t cut down on his strikeouts he could be a real drain on your fantasy team’s batting average.