MMA DFS: UFC Fight Night 108 - Free Preview

This Saturday night the UFC finds itself in the Music City for the 4th time in the organizations existence. Nashville, Tennessee plays host for the traveling blood bath of hooligans, and DraftKings has structured this card in a way that makes it much more difficult to put together an attractive than last week’s card. That’s ok, because we’re professionals, and we’ve put in the time, effort, and we have the knowledge to continue the momentum that we’ve created over the past few weeks.

Last week all four of my recommended cards finished in the top 10% of all rosters entered, and one of them scored an awesome 609 points, putting it within the top 1.5% of entered rosters! This is the 2nd week in a row that we’ve delivered highly competitive optimal lineups, and we hope you’ve taken advantage of this, especially since the event previews and optimal lineups have been free to all! This won’t last forever, and this might be the last free event you get, and then all of this great info will be for our Premium Members only. Don’t miss out, and if you aren’t signed up for our Premium DFS package, then you should highly consider it if you like money, UFC, and DFS.

Enough bragging about our results, right? We like to pat ourselves on the back once in a while, but it isn’t always going to be rainbows and roses. We will have some events where we can’t seem to put any of the prize money in our wallets, but I am confident that those profitless events will be few and far between. The number of hours that we put into analyzing the stats, watching film of previous fights, and constructing the rosters is absurd for just one card, but in order to hold up our end of the bargain, and give our Premium Members what they pay for - insight and profit, we need to put these hours in, and that’s all there is to it. All I ask is that you all are engaged, interactive, promoting the site, and following me on Twitter (@TJ_Scott_MMA). We don’t just want you to take the optimal lineups and blindly input them into the contests. We are trying to educate on the sport, how to handicap it from a DFS perspective, and what to look for when constructing your own rosters. If you can walk away from each card learning something about the sport, and how to play DFS MMA, then I’m a happy camper!

Without further ado, let’s dive into the preview of each fight. You’ll find the optimal lineups at the end of the preview article, and you’ll notice that I left one of the GPP lineups blank, as I plan on posting this one after the weigh-ins tomorrow night. This will keep you guys on your toes, allow you to give me some insight into your thoughts, and also will give me time to watch the condition of each fighter at the weigh-ins. Keep an eye out tomorrow for this GPP optimal lineup to be added after weigh-ins. I’ll also keep you all abreast of any pivots, or changes to my lineups as the fight card grows closer. I’ll be posting any pivots in the forums under the “MMA” section, so please join me in there. I also plan on being in the MMA forum during the live event on Saturday night, and commenting on the fights live, as they happen with my thoughts and opinions. Please join me Saturday night in the MMA Forum to join in on the conversation! Good luck, and Lets Make it Rain!! (again)

Undercard

Matt Schnell is an American Top Team product making his 2nd appearance in the UFC cage, but in truth, it should be considered his debut because his first fight was taken on a week’s notice, at a heavier weight class, against a pretty legit fighter in Rob Font. Schnell didn’t look too bad against Font even with all of these factors working against him. He definitely showed some heart in that fight when Font landed a huge knee, and totally rocked Schnell, but Schnell didn’t fold. He fought back with some offense, and more importantly, kept the fight going and showed an impressive display of heart on the sport’s biggest stage.

Schnell has better than average stand up with solid footwork, and delivers his combinations at a measured pace that won’t have him vulnerable to strikes while in the pocket. Schnell’s a purple belt in BJJ, and has a very good game while on his back, so I don’t think that Sandoval will want to spend too much time on the mat with the ATT product. I think Sandoval, who is Team Alpha Male trained, has an advantage when it comes to the power in his strikes, and this is his path to victory over Schnell in my opinion.

Schnell’s chin has been tested before, and it hasn’t always stood the test of time. If Sandoval can land one of his wild hatmakers, he could easily put Schnell to sleep, or pounce on the wounded opponent and finish with some ground and pound. I don’t think this is how this one will play out though.

Schnell needs to utilize his 6” reach advantage, strike from the outside with both leg kicks, and his improving boxing combinations. If he can do this, then I think he’ll have his opportunity to either finish Sandoval on the feet with technically superior strikes, or he’ll look for the chance to get the fight to the mat, and lock up a submission on the stocky Alpha Male fighter.

If I were a betting man, then I’d definitely be targeting Schnell at his +100 odds. I think there definitely some value here, as I see Schnell having an advantage on both the feet and the ground, while also showing me some competitive spirit in the fight against Font. From a DraftKings perspective, I do think there is some value in Schnell, but the pace he applies can often lead to a slower than average pace if his opponent takes a similar approach and wants to counter-strike. I don’t foresee this happening, as Hector Sandoval typically likes to be aggressive out of the gate, and throws looping, overly aggressive punches while pressing the fight forward. This bodes well for Schnell, as I think he finds an opening in Sandoval’s defense, and either puts him to sleep, or gets the fight to the ground and locks up a submission.

The salary of Schnell at $8,000 is a pretty good deal, as his ceiling is pretty high, but this is a coin flip from a Vegas perspective (but remember, I think there’s value in Schnell’s Vegas odds too - should be -150 IMO), so there is some risk here. In Schnell’s last 7 fights, he has 5 wins in the 1st round. A nice stat for DK prospects, but Sandoval is tough, and has 50% of his fights go to decision (8).

PICK: Schnell, Sub, 2nd

Cash Game: Schnell (6.5/10)

GPP:

Schnell (7/10)

Sandoval (5/10)

The 2nd fight of the evening features Joe Proctor, who hasn’t fought in over a year, against Bryan Barberena, a training partner of Benson Henderson at the MMA Lab in Arizona. Barberna has a significant advantage from Vegas’ perspective, putting him as a -320 favorite, and I think it is justified. Proctor does not like to be pressured in his fights, and this is exactly the style the BB brings to the table. Barberena has won 3 fights in the UFC where he was an almost 2 to 1 underdog or more (+190, +245, +480), and did this through grit, toughness, and dragging these 3 fighters into the type of fight that he wants. These fights typically aren’t visually attractive to watch, and they often look like a monkey humping a football, but this is exactly what Barberena wants to look like in his fights. A grinding, grueling, draining, unsexy fight is what Barberena wants, and that’s typically what he gets when he isn’t fighting a high-level wrestler who can dictate the pace and place of the fight, and you definitely would not consider Proctor a “high-level wrestler”, as he does not have one registered takedown in his 5 UFC fights. If there was a website based on this fight the URL would be: www.NotGoodForJoe.com 

Barberena will have his way with Joe, and will make this a grueling affair that will eventually bloody up Joe, and either secure a late stoppage or win by an easy 30-27 (or better) score. BB’s salary is on the higher end at $9,100, but you can almost guarantee that he’s going to walk away with a victory here, so this does make him somewhat attractive from a Cash game perspective. GPP’s are tougher due to the high salary, and lowish ceiling.

If you need a “punt play”, then I think Proctor is a good option. One of the lower salaries on the card, and he does have an outside chance of putting Barberena to sleep. I would highly consider Proctor if you need to salary saver in your lineups.

PICK: Barberena, Decision

Cash Game: Barberena (7.5) → A high likelihood of a victory makes him attractive and safe, but his ceiling and high salary limit my ranking of him.

GPP:

Barberena (5)

Proctor (5)

The next fight pits Alexis Davis who is nearing the end of her career, while Cindy Dandois is hoping that this fight is the start of a UFC career that eventually has her wearing UFC gold around her waist. Davis has been a mainstay in the UFC since the start of women competing in the UFC, and she must be given respect for this. Her last fight against Sara McMann in December was a lackluster performance that saw her getting submitted by the red hot McMann. Keep in mind though, she was coming off an almost 2 year absence due to a pregnancy and subsequent birth of a child. There was definitely some ring rust in her performance, and hopefully that’s it, but sometimes childbirth, and a woman becoming a mother can change their mental makeup, and they never regain that competitive edge to compete at the sport’s highest level again. Hopefully that is not the case with Davis, and she just needed to get some more time in camp, and in front of the lights and cameras.

Dandois is making her UFC debut, so keep that in the back of your mind, as this often has a negative effect on fighters who are not mentally prepared for the experience. You hear of it time after time - a debuting fighter either has an adrenaline dump after the first 2-3 minutes, and they gas, or they just never get comfortable and fight like they have in previous fights at the lower levels. It’s somewhat rare to have a debuting UFC fighter come in and fight up to their potential, and this is something I always take into consideration when handicapping 1st-timers in the UFC.

On top of her debut in the UFC, Dandois is also a horrific striker who looks incredibly uncomfortable while on her feet. She definitely wants to get this fight to the ground and try to pull off a submission victory over Davis. But Alexis is by no means a “slouch” on the ground, and has a solid submission game that could very well see her beat Dandoise via submission. The highest likelihood for this fight to play out is for Davis to out strike Dandoise on the feet, and put a beating on the UFC virgin. I could see this be a prolonged beating that goes to the final bell, or I could also see the ref jumping in to save Dandoise from a further beating late in the first round, or in the second round. Regardless, both situations that have Davis winning by using her striking advantage will be highlighted by a big scoring night from a DraftKings perspective. If it goes to a decision, then I foresee Davis racking up an impressive amount of significant strikes to go along with her DraftKings decision bonus. If Davis is fortunate enough to end this before the final bell, then I think she’ll do it via strikes, and this will also result in a large amount of DK points. Either way -- points, points points!   

PICK: Davis, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game:  Davis (8/10) → I think her experience, combined with Dandoise’s lack thereof, and the big disparity in striking abilities, makes Davis an attractive play in Cash games. If she keeps the fight standing, it won’t even be close. If it goes to the ground, then Davis still has a very good shot at winning this via submission. 

GPP:

Davis (7.5/10) → Her $8,900 salary is reasonable, and the way that I foresee her winning this fight makes for a high scoring night. I think she’ll also have a pretty low ownership, making her even more attractive!

Dandoise (5/10) → I may have a very small amount of exposure of Dandoise due to her extremely low ownership, and cheap price tag, but I emphasize…..this will be VERY SMALL. 

Snapshot:

Really don’t have much interest in this one at all. I see minimal value in both fighters in all formats, so I won’t be targeting this one for any plays.

PICK: Taylor, Decision

Cash Game: Nada. Too much risk in calling the victor.

GPP: Moving on to the next match……..

The 2nd fight on the FS2 prelims is an intriguing one that I’ll definitely be targeting. I’m liking this fight from a DFS perspective due to not only Holtzman’s talent, but McBride’s lack there of. Often times when you’re handicapping MMA fights from a DFS angle you are analyzing the weaknesses of each fighter, and the odds that one of the fighter’s weaknesses will equate to 100+ DraftKings points. If you can find that fighter with the biggest weakness on the card, then you want to take a look at their opponent, and determine if they are capable of exposing said weakness and gaining those ever-elusive 100+ point nights.

With all that said, I think that McBride is that fighter on the card that has a serious weakness, and in all reality, probably shouldn’t be in the UFC, and would think he’d get his walking papers after this lose. Watching film on McBride you quickly see the holes in his game, as his upright, wide stance is awkward to watch, and brings back memories of the UFC in the mid ‘90’s, and the barroom brawlers with little skill getting punished by the trained martial artist. It’s like a car accident. You just have to watch to see what happens next.

I think this fight will play out in a similar fashion. Holtzman is the hometown boy, and the UFC is known for lining up winnable fights for local fighters that they are trying to build up, and this is exactly what we have here with McBride being brought in to be demolished by Holtzman. McBride needs to get this fight to the ground, as all 8 of his wins have come in the form of a submission. Holtzman is athletic enough (he’s a former semi-pro hockey player) to thwart McBride’s takedown attempts, and keep this fight on the feet - right where Holtzman wants it. This either ends in a KO in the first 2 rounds, or Holtzman grinds McBride against the fence, and uses his dirty boxing and gritty style to smother the lanky 6’1” lightweight who is a big underdog at +285.

You’ll have to pay in order to own Holtzman, as his salary sits at a hefty $9,300. I think he’s as close as a guarantee of 100+ points as you get on this card. Holtzman’s got everything working in his favor, and all he needs to do is stay off the mat and he gets you those points. The hometown brawler will be holding his hand high in victory after he dominates the overmatched McBride.

PICK:   Holtzman, KO, 2nd

Cash Game: Holtzman (9/10) → Like I said above, probably the best odds to score 100+ points on the card. Keep it standing, and 100+ is yours. You’ll have to pay for it though.

GPP: Holtzman (8/10)

Fight #6 on the card has two Flyweights going at it, and this is one of the most anticipated fights on the card for me. Not necessarily because of it’s DraftKings implications, but because of the quickness, athleticism, and ground work that we’ll see for, most likely, 15 minutes. The Flyweights have recently been scoring some pretty impressive point totals since the DraftKings scoring changes have taken effect. The scoring changes enhanced the importance of takedowns, ground advances, and ground work in general, so when you put two guys in the cage in one of the lighter weight classes, you typically have a situation that is ripe for quick takedowns, transitions, scoring strikes, and advances. The quicker these actions are, the more that can be packed into a fight to help rack up points. That’s exactly what will occur in the cage Saturday night when Dustin Ortiz and Brendon Moreno lock horns.

Ortiz is the better wrestler, and will often find himself in a favorable position on the ground. He also has the experience and wisdom that Moreno does not have yet. The Mexican (Moreno) is only 23 years old, and has 2 UFC fights under his belt. Ortiz on the other hand is 28 years old, and this will be his 10th UFC fight in Nashville this weekend. This edge in experience will prove to be the difference maker in my opinion. Ortiz will control the fight on the ground, win the scrambles, and will rack up a hefty amount of points through takedowns, advances, and strikes when he finds the opportunity.

My numbers have this fight closer than the current -200 odds that Ortiz has to win the bout, as I believe that Moreno has the talent, and athleticism to pull off an upset, but I just don’t see it happening yet at the age of 23. A few more years and this one would be his. Regardless of the odds and salaries, I think this one has the chance to be the “Fight of the Night”, and will be entertaining as hell with the scrambles and transitions that will be on display.

From a DraftKings perspective, I see some value in both these fighters, and I think we need to start looking at almost any fight in the lighter weight classes, as the new scoring structure has really given the quicker guys an opportunity to accumulate a lot of points (see, Elliott, Tim from last weekend - 175 points!).

PICK: Ortiz, Decision

Cash Game: 

Ortiz (7/10): High floor and high ceiling sounds good. Odds of losing are higher than I’d like, as Moreno has some skills.

Moreno (6/10): Again, high floor and high ceiling, but just not as high as Oriz, and Moreno’s odds to lose are higher than Ortiz’s, therefore, the difference in the ranking I gave both of them.

GPP:

Ortiz (6.5/10): I’d like Ortiz more if I didn’t think he’d be so highly owned, and his salary is a little high for the risk I see of him losing this fight to Moreno. If I didn’t think Moreno was as dangerous as he is, then I’d like Ortiz a lot more in GPP’s, but it is what it is. I still have a good amount of exposure to him in GPP’s.

Moreno (7.5/10): Pros - I like his low ownership, low salary. Cons - I don’t like his odds of winning this fight, and you need 6 wins to take home a GPP, and that’s what we’re here to do - to take home the whole damn thing!

Tough fight to call from a DFS perspective, as this could go either way from a scoring perspective. Smilin’ Sam Alvey is a solid counter-puncher that is making his 6th appearance in the Octagon in the last 12 months, setting a new UFC record for most fights in a 12 months span. Wow! Impressive to say the least!

Alvey’s counter-punching can work in one of two ways: he can either connect with a counter-punch after his opponent throws and KO him, or his opponent will be super careful in his volume of strikes thrown at Alvey due to the power in his hands, and therefore, Alvey’s volume reduces significantly as well. If you look back at Alvey’s last few fights, his striking volume was not overly impressive, which leads me to believe that the only way that you can generate a lot of DK points with Alvey is for him to KO Leites, and I don’t see that happening since Leites has never been stopped by strikes before in his 12 year professional career! This makes for a fight that looks great on paper, but could be a snoozer when it comes to DraftKings scoring.

Leites wants to get this fight on the ground and work his legit BJJ, but Smilin’ Sam has defended 85% of takedown attempts thrown at him in the Octagon over the course of his 10 fight UFC career. This will be a tough task, and one that we can’t assume that he’ll be able to successfully accomplish. If Leites can’t get the fight to the ground, it doesn’t rule out his ability to KO Alvey or win the fight via decision with strikes, but it does make his path to victory that much more difficult.

This fight scares me from a DFS perspective, as there are just too many question marks to feel comfortable with investing heavily in one side or the other. I could honestly see this one playing out with Leites unable to get the fight to the ground, Alvey throwing a very low volume of strikes, as he’ll only be countering Leites’ striking attempts, and he’ll be conservative with his hands as he’ll be giving Alvey’s hands probably too much respect. If this happens, then we’ll most likely see Alvey win a decision, but he won’t score more than 60 - 75 DK points. Pick at your own risk!

I am going to monitor how Leites looks over the next few days, and at weigh-ins. There has been rumors of Leites nearing the end of his career, and some of his more recent fights (he’s lost 4 out of 5) have indicated that he may not be as motivated as he once was, and possibly not putting in the time and effort to perform at the top level of the sport. If Leites looks sluggish, soft, and uninterested at weigh-ins and over the next few days, then I’ll most likely remove Leites all together from any rosters I’d have him in, and I’ll increase my exposure on Alvey. Follow me on Twitter (@TJ_Scott_MMA), and check in on the forum and comments section on any pivots and adjustments make to my LU’s as the fight card nears!

PICK: Alvey, Decision

Cash Game: Alvey (6.5/10): If Leites looks “off” at weigh-ins, then I’ll bump up this ranking for Alvey.

GPP:

Alvey (6.5): Not holding my breath for a KO here, as Leites has never been stopped via strikes in his 12 year career, but if he’s mentally checked out, then maybe this will be different. Alvey will be highly owned, and this is what is keeping my ranking for him down at a 6.5.

Leites (6): The only reason I may have a little exposure to Leites is due to the high ownership level of Sam Alvey, and the low ownership of Leites.

Main Card

Now talk about a fight with fireworks! Someone is getting knocked out, it’s just a matter of who. The odds for this fight to not go the distance is -245, which is the 2nd highest on the card. Mike Perry is a fighter that no one seems to like as a person, but they love to watch him fight. He throws heavy, heavy hands that typically put people to sleep, and some people say that he even knocked out a cow one time! That’s the type of power that we’re talking about here! Ok, that cow part I just made up, but I bet he could do it if challenged.

Ellenberger has a weak chin after many years of getting punched in the head by the hardest punchers on earth. Jake’s weak chin combined with Perry’s cement hands, and you have yourself the perfect recipe for a 1st round KO and 100+ points!

This is one of my favorite plays on the card, and I’ll be targeting Perry in both Cash and GPP formats. He’ll be highly owned because of what I mentioned previously, but I think he is one of the few fighters on the card that you can almost guarantee will score 100+, and you need to grab those guarantees when you can!

PICK: Perry, KO, 1st

Cash Game: Perry (9.5/10): No one is perfect, so I’ll never give out a 10/10, but this is as close as you get. Lock up those 3 figure winners (100+ points) when you can, and I think this one has a reasonable price tag at $8,400.

GPP: Perry (8.5/10): I like the odds of a quick, vicious finish, and I like his salary at $8,400, but I don’t like how high Perry will be owned by the public. Hopefully Perry’s unlikeability will push some of these owners away. We can only hope!

Joe Lauzon is one of my favorite fighters to watch in modern MMA, and of all-time! He brings a pressure and mentality that is impossible to duplicate, and the day that Lauzon hangs up his gloves will be a sad day for the sport of MMA. Until then, let’s enjoy the hell out of the fights that he does have remaining.

Lauzon’s style typically lends itself to high scoring DFS results, but it doesn’t always work out that way, and this could be one of those situations. Lauzon has trouble with mobile strikers who have an effective jab. Stevie Ray is a southpaw striker who is also very strong for the Lightweight division. Ultimately, Lauzon wants to make this a grinding affair that pulls Ray into deep waters, and tests his mental fortitude. If Ray can avoid getting pressed against the cage, and eventually taken down, then I think it could be a long night for Lauzon. If Lauzon can get his hands on Ray, smother his movements, and work his superior submission game, then I foresee Lauzon pulling out a submission victory.

Alan Patrick had great success in dragging Ray to the ground, and winning a split decision by taking Ray out of his game, and bring him into Patrick’s world on the mat. I think Patrick is much quicker than Lauzon, so you can’t automatically say that Lauzon will easily be able to get Ray to the ground. Lauzon has had trouble in the past getting his hands on the quicker fighters in the division who strike at range, and get out of danger before Lauzon can get his hands on them, and bring them into his world. Lauzon’s hands aren’t non-existent, but he’s a smart fighter, and he should know that his best chance at victory against Stevie Ray is be submitting him on the ground. Tough one to call, as they both have a path to victory that is obvious. Now the question becomes, who can implement and execute their game plan?

I think Lauzon is one of the few underdog plays on the card that give will give us a good shot at victory, and picking up a solid amount of DK points. He’s a fighter we’ll need to take a chance on in order to roster some of the higher priced fighters on the card.

PICK:   Ray, Decision

Cash Game: Lauzon (7/10): We’ll need some cheaper salaries to stay under the salary cap, and here’s one of our best dogs on the card that can save us some salary.

GPP:

Lauzon (8/10): Low ownership, small salary, and a pretty solid shot to win as a dog. I like it!

Ray (6.5/10): If you can afford him, you may want to get a limited amount of exposure to him. He’s not cheap, and will be highly owned though.

Dodson’s speed and power will be too much for Wineland to handle, and will result in Dodson stopping this one within the 1st 2 rounds. Wineland has been around the block, but Father Time waits for no one, and I think Wineland will have this emphasized to him physically in the cage on Saturday night. Dodson is just way too fast for Wineland to keep up with, and he has sneaky power that can also put him to sleep, which is pretty rare for the 135 weight class.

Although Dodson has the power to end the fight with one punch, I don’t necessarily think it will happen that way, as Wineland is too experienced to be suckered into the receiving end of one of Dodson’s bombs.

From a DraftKings perspective, I would like to roster Dodson in my cash lineup, but you need to work your salaries in a way that let’s you afford the high priced speedster at $9,400. He’s well worth it if you can fit him in your lineup.

PICK: Dodson, Decision

Cash Game: Dodson (8/10): If you can fit him in your cash lineup, then do it, as he’s guaranteed a high scoring affair. Stacking with Wineland is also an option here.

GPP: Dodson (7/10): I like him in GPP’s too, but I think he’ll be highly owned, and his salary makes it difficult to squeeze him in.

This is a great fight to target from a GPP perspective, and you should have exposure to both of these fighters, as this fight has the best odds on the card to not go the distance (-530). I’ll venture to say that the winner of this fight will need to be on your roster if you plan to win that elusive GPP that you’ve always wanted to win!

OSP has been on a slide of late, and he has looked pretty flat in his last two fights. Does this mean that he’s mailed it in, and mentally checked out, or just a down few days for a talented fighter that still has yet to reach the pinnacle of his career? OSP is 34 years old, so there isn’t much time left to prove himself, and prove himself is exactly what he’ll want to do in front of his home town in Nashville! The former University of Tennessee Volunteer football player, OSP knows what it feels like to have hundreds of thousands of fans screaming for his athletic achievements, and although there won’t be hundreds of thousands of fans on Saturday night, there will be tens of thousands, and hopefully that’s enough to motivate him to the victory.

If OSP can get this fight to the ground, then I think he’ll win via strikes within the first two rounds. De Lima has a notoriously bad gas tank, so if this one goes past the 1st round, then I don’t give him much of a chance to win. He does have tremendous power though, and could easily put OSP to sleep in the 1st round, similar to how Jimi Manuwa recently did. Regardless of how this one goes down, I would recommend having some exposure to both of these fighters within your GPP lineups. Cash is a risky play, and I’ll probably avoid.

PICK: OSP, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game:  Nada. I’ll avoid as neither I have confidence in securing the victory, and that’s what you need in Cash games…..the victory.

GPP:

OSP (8/10): Needs to avoid the heavy hands in the 1st round, and look for victory on the ground.

De Lima (7.5/10): I’ll have less exposure to de Lima, but he is someone you should have GPP exposure to though, as he knows how to finish fights, and finish them fast!

This should be a pretty awesome fight to watch, as I’ve never seen Diego Sanchez in a boring fight, and Iaquinta is often involved in some pretty intense battles as well. Iaquinta has been selling real estate for the past year and a half, but the competitive juices got flowing again, and he has come out of retirement to face someone who probably should be retired. Sanchez has been in so many wars over his UFC career, and I think he is one of those fighters that Dana White should pull aside and retire them for their own safety, because Diego is one of those guys who’ll never know when to say enough is enough.

Iaquinta is all-around the better fighter, and should win this one, but Diego has the experience and the heart to pull a rabbit out of a hat, so it isn’t a foregone conclusion. Diego will want to make this a slugfest, and I’m sure Iaquinta won’t mind if it unfolds that way either, because he has some pretty vicious hands. It’s difficult to KO Diego, but Joe Lauzon, who isn’t known for the power in his hands, was able to KO him last year in a surprise ending to their contest.

I like Iaquinta here, but there are too many question marks surrounding this fight to feel very confident in rostering Iaquinta in all formats. I’ll have some exposure to him in GPP’s, but I won’t be going overboard. With im taking time off and coming out of retirement for this fight, it makes you question his mental state, and if he is really competing for the right reasons.

PICK: Iaquinta, Decision

Cash Game: Not loving the pricing on Iaquinta for the risk.

GPP: Possibly have some exposure to both, but will be very minimal, as this will likely go to a decision.

I really can’t believe that this is the main event of a UFC card! I can see all the reason in the world to have Swanson in a Fight Night main event, but Artem Lobov? No way in hell! Lobov is getting these fights because he is Conor McGregor’s boy, and I’m sure that McGregor is chirping in Dana White’s ear to get Lobov some fights.

Regardless of where Lobov is coming from, he will get picked apart by Swanson, who is drastically better than Artem. Swanson should take this matchup as a sign of disrespect, and should want to end this fight quickly, and viciously!

This will be a high-paced fight, and if you can afford him, I would recommend getting Swanson into your Cash game lineups. You may also want to stack Lobov and Swanson in Cash games. I think this is a viable situation where stacking makes sense in order to fit Swanson on your Cash game roster. 

PICK: Swanson, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game:

Swanson (8.5/10): Great odds for victory, but he’s going to cost you!

Lobov (5/10): He’ll be a stacking option possibly for some.

GPP: Swanson (8/10): I like his chances for a bigly scoring night, but he will be highly owned, and he isn’t cheap.

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

Cash 2

GPP 1

GPP 2 - Announced after Weigh-Ins